Modelling streamflow response to climate change for the Kyeamba Creek catchment of south eastern Australia
This study predicts the probable impacts of climate change on the streamflow of Kyeamba Creek catchment of south eastern Australia. Three climate scenarios (B1, A1B and A2) and the average of four general circulation models (CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-MK3.5, ECHam5 and MIROC3.2) were used to simulate the streamflow for three future periods (2030, 2050 and 2090). Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated for streamflow of both daily and monthly time steps. Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies (NSE) of 0.602 and 0.657 for calibration and validation, respectively, for monthly time step indicate good agreement between measured and simulated flow for the catchment. Comparing with the long time observed streamflow, simulated future annual average streamflow showed a variation ranging from +16% to –44%. Based on SWAT simulations of this study, Kyeamba Creek will likely experience small change in streamflow by the middle of the 21st century but big change by the end of this century.
Keywords: Australia, climate change, hydrologic modelling, Kyeamba Creek, Murray-Darling Basin, ParaSol, streamflow, Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT