Keywords: systems of systems, forced changes, historical perspective, economic interdependencies, risk management, SoS models, hierarchical holographic modelling, HHM, phantom system models, PSM
Models for risk management of systems of systems
This paper addresses the need for developing a body of prescriptive theory and methodology for modelling Systems of Systems (SoS). This will enable analysts to appropriately model and understand the SoS evolving behaviour due to the continued forced changes imposed on them. To place this need in historical perspective, the evolution of the field of systems engineering/analysis is briefly reviewed. The complexity of SoS is characterised by the highly interconnected and interdependent physical and economic infrastructure sectors of every country in the world, which introduce significant modelling challenges for the systems analysts. Economic, physical, cyber, workforce, organisational, and international intra- and interdependencies are introduced. Particular economic interdependency models (the Inoperability Input-Output Model (IIM) and its derivatives) follow. Hierarchical Holographic Modelling (HHM) for studying the multiple dimensions of risk to SoS is introduced, followed by the Phantom System Models (PSM) for modelling emergent large-scale SoS.