Both scenarios show that climate change will stimulate further eutrophication in the Northern Baltic Sea. The Gulf of Finland, the Archipelago Sea and the Gulf of Riga will Summary receive increasing nutrient loads, resulting in higher algal biomasses. If fully implemented, the BSAP will compensate for the effects of climate change by mitigating the increase in algal biomass. However, the predicted impacts of global warming evidently make the BSAP’s strategic goal on eutrophication unattainable. In spite of the conservation measures proposed in the BSAP, eutrophication will continue to be the most serious environmental problem facing the Baltic Sea. Consequently even stricter countrywise utrient reduction allocations than those suggested in the BSAP are indispensable for the catchment area of the Northern Baltic Sea and particularly the Gulf of Finland.
The scenarios presented in the report were built using a 3D-ecosystem model, which calculates water fl ows, nutrient concentrations and algal biomass.