The National Energy Outlook
The National Energy Outlook (NEO) outlines the current state of the Dutch energy system. The NEO describes the observed development from 2000 up to the present, as well as expected developments up to 2030. It covers physical indicators, such as energy supply, energy demand and greenhouse gases emissions, and economic indicators, such as Economic Value Added and employment related to energy. The NEO aims to provide a fact base for the societal debate about energy in the Netherlands.
The NEO describes the expected development following two policy variants, which include government policy and measures and the activities of other societal actors. It is based on insights regarding prices, markets, technology and policy as of May 2014. The 'with existing measures’ variant' includes specific, officially published measures and activities that are binding for stakeholders as much as possible. The 'with additional measures’ variant also includes published intentions for measures which, by early May 2014, were considered specific enough to process in the calculations. Many elements of the national Energy Agreement have been included in the 'with additional measures’ policy variant. The projections in the NEO aim to reflect the most plausible developments according to the selected policy variant, by using insights on prices, markets and the state of technology as of May 2014. However, as the future is inherently uncertain, interpreting projections is not possible without accounting for these uncertainties. A variety of factors such as prices, economic growth, sectorspecific developments, or developments abroad can evolve differently than assumed in the projections. Therefore, where relevant and possible, uncertainty ranges are given in the projections to indicate probable ranges of future values.