Nigeria Petrochemicals Industry Report 2013

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BMI's latest Nigeria petrochemicals report examines the challenges to investment in the olefins andpolymers sectors, which are far smaller than they would be if the country realised its full potential. In thisreports we assess the infrastructural and political hurdles to expansion and the investment strategiesemployed by leading players in the industry.

In 2012, Nigeria had olefins production capacities of 550,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) ethylene and125,000tpa propylene, with thermoplastic resins capacities of 240,000tpa linear low-density polyethylene(LLDPE) and 95,000tpa polypropylene (PP). The main risk to growth in the market is unrest in the NigerDelta, which has reduced petrochemicals output in the recent past, and the poor business environment.

The main focus for the petrochemicals industry in coming years will be the fertiliser sector. By 2017,Nigeria will have almost tripled its urea capacity from 1mn tpa in 2011 to 2.75 mn tpa. In olefins andpolymers, progress will be slower and largely dependent on the Thailand's Indorama Group's plans forits Eleme Petrochemicals Company subsidiary. The feedstock mix is favourable to furtherdiversification with potential for expansion in PP and development of butadiene derivatives. However, itsmain focus has been the opening in June 2012 of a 75,000tpa polyethylene terephthalate (PET) SolidState Polymerization (SSP) facility, which sources PET chips from plants in Asia and Europe. The plantonly represents the second stage of PET production and is relatively small; nevertheless, PET is anincreasingly popular petrochemical - with high demand in Asia, particularly in China.

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BMI has revised the following forecasts:

By 2017, national urea capacity should stand at 2.75mn tpa with a sizeable portion likely to beexported to markets elsewhere in Africa.

BMI does not envisage any increase in polymers-related activity over the forecast period.

Nigeria comes last in BMI's Middle East and Africa Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) with 36.2points, up 4.2 points since 2012 due to an improvement in the risk environment.

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Table Of Contents

Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis

Nigeria Petrochemicals Industry SWOT

Nigeria Political SWOT

Nigeria Economic SWOT

Nigeria Business Environment SWOT

Global Petrochemicals Overview

Global Oil Products Price Outlook

Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016

Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms of Passenger Growth

Africa Regional Overview

Table: Africa's Gas Reserves, 2012 (bcm)

Table: Africa's Oil Reserves, 2012 (bn bbl)

Table: Africa's Cracker Capacity, 2011-2017, ('000 tpa)

Nigeria Market Overview

Table: Nigeria's Petrochemicals Facilities

Industry Trends and Developments

Upstream Sectors

Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings

Middle East and Africa Regional Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings

Table: Middle East And Africa Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings


Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: Nigeria's Petrochemicals Sector, 2010-2017 ('000 tpa, unless otherwise stated)

Macroeconomic Outlook

Table: Nigeria - Economic Activity, 2011-2016

Company Profile

Eleme Petrochemicals Company (EPCL)

Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC)

Glossary Of Terms

Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms

Country Snapshot

Table: Nigeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)

Table: Nigeria's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)

Table: Nigeria's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020

Table: Nigeria's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020


How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts

Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry

Cross Checks

Business Environment Ratings

Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale


Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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