Inderscience Publishers

Oil and metal price movements and BRIC macro–economy: an empirical analysis

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Brazil, Russia, India, and China are the four fastest growing economies to emerge at the dawn of the new century. Concisely referred to as BRIC, the growth of these states has transferred sources of wealth and capital. To fuel such rising economies requires resources. In particular, food, construction materials, and energy are necessary to sustain BRIC growth. This paper will ultimately examine the relationship between macroeconomic factors of the BRIC countries and commodity price movements from the early 1990s to the end of 2007. Some strong relationships were found, including metal price fluctuations on Brazil's Stock Index and oil price fluctuations on Russia GDP. Interestingly, we could not find any significant relationships between China's macroeconomic factors and commodity price movements.

Keywords: Brazil, Russia, India, China, BRIC economies, commodity markets, Granger causality tests, vector autoregression model, VAR model, oil prices, price movements, metal prices, price fluctuations, macroeconomics, commodity prices

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