Browse all Channels
Inderscience Publishers
World Trade Center Bldg, 29, route de Pre-Bois, Case Postale 896 ,
Geneva 15 ,
CH-1215
Switzerland
  4. On the boundaries of probabilistic risk assessment in the face ...

On the boundaries of probabilistic risk assessment in the face of uncertainties, a case of piracy and armed robberies against ships in the Gulf of Aden

0
- By: ,

Courtesy of Inderscience Publishers

It is a common conception among many researchers and analysts, in particular social scientists, that using probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) when there are large uncertainties about likelihoods and outcomes is irrational, unscientific and potentially misleading. In this paper, we look more closely into this issue: the boundaries of PRAs when there are large uncertainties about the phenomena and processes analysed. Using an example of maritime piracy, we demonstrate that PRA also has an important role to play in risk management when the uncertainties are large. A paradigm shift is, however, required for how to conduct and use the risk assessments. The ambition of precise risk estimation has to be replaced by uncertainty assessments and characterisation.

Keywords: probabilistic risk assessment, chance, maritime piracy, armed robbery, ships, shipping, probability, risk estimation, Gulf of Aden, likelihoods, outcomes, uncertainty assessments, risk characterisations, business continuity, risk management

Related articles

  • Input-output model based ecological risk assessment for ecological risk management of watersheds: a ...

    To achieve advanced watershed ecological management, policy-makers have struggled to predict ecological impacts for a long time. As a process of ecosystem analysis, ecological risk assessment (ERA) has been widely adopted to analyse the possibility of adverse ecological effects. ERA has developed from considering only a few indicators in an area to multiple sources and receptors in large-scope regions. However, the transfer of risk in large-scope regions caused by internal interaction has not been deeply analysed,...

  • Assessment of groundwater vulnerability to nitrate pollution caused by agricultural practices

    Environmental risk assessment is a step towards identification, analysis, and classification of risk factors and thus reduction of the possibility of adverse consequences. In this research, a novel approach for environmental risk assessment on groundwater pollution is applied. By combination of aquifer vulnerability DRASTIC map, pollution severity and prioritizing of the plain regions by the TOPSIS method, more sensitive regions of Qazvin aquifer in Iran are identified. In the first step, seven hydro-geological...

  • Failure risk assessment in water network in terms of planning renewals – a case study of the ...

    In the paper the issue of failure risk assessment in water supply system (WSS) was presented. Problems of water supply network failure constitute a crucial issue in waterworks practice. The results of the analysis were obtained on the basis of real data from water network operation. Attention has been paid to the problem of risk assessment in the context of risk acceptance criteria. An example of criteria application was shown for the exemplary water supply network. The water network indicators: failure frequency,...

  • How risk assessments can make a city more resilient to weather extremes

    Balancing water supply and demand—while addressing current and future vulnerabilities to extreme conditions such as drought—is essential to safeguarding the wellbeing of our communities. Is your city at risk? Identifying where cities have problems and determining how much is at risk is the first step to becoming a strong, resilient city. In states like California, water shortage is hardly a temporary problem, but there are very serious consequences that put local and state economies at risk. For...

  • Combined risk assessment of nonstationary monthly water quality based on Markov chain and ...

    Water quality risk management is a global hot research linkage with the sustainable water resource development. Ammonium nitrogen (NH3-N) and permanganate index (CODMn) as the focus indicators in Huai River Basin, are selected to reveal their joint transition laws based on Markov theory. The time-varying moments model with either time or land cover index as explanatory variables is applied to build the time-varying marginal distributions of water quality time series. Time-varying copula model, which takes the...

Customer comments

No comments were found for On the boundaries of probabilistic risk assessment in the face of uncertainties, a case of piracy and armed robberies against ships in the Gulf of Aden. Be the first to comment!