Keywords: decision support system, nuclear accident, model inter-comparison, uncertainty assessment, internet application, radioactive debris, radioactive pollution
Performance of the SNAP model in an ENSEMBLE exercise of simulating real-time dispersion from a nuclear accident
A real-time dispersion model SNAP (Severe Nuclear Accident Program) has been developed at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute to simulate long-range atmospheric transport of the radioactive debris released during nuclear accidents. This model is the most important tool for meteorologist on duty responsible for preparation of the real-time forecast of the dispersion. The forecast is then used by the National Crisis Committee in Norway responsible for management of the crisis situation in case of a nuclear accident. The question then naturally arises, 'What is the uncertainty of dispersion model forecasts?' To get a measure of the inherent model uncertainty in such forecasts, National Meteorological Services (NMS) in Europe have joined their resources together in the EU-project 'ENSEMBLE'. The project is strictly internet oriented and its main aim is to develop a new internet based decision support system for operational use by the national decision makers – in real accidents. Selected results from one of the project exercises, seen from Norwegian perspective, are presented here.