PESETA: Projections of Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Sectors of Europe Based on Bottom-up Analysis

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The aim of the PESETA project is to assess the impacts of climate change in Europe in view of the costs and benefits of EU policies on climate change. PESETA seeks to provide climate impact and adaptation cost estimates on a policy-relevant time horizon (2020, 2030) using consistent methods (climate scenarios) for six sectors (agriculture, river floods, coastal floods, energy demand, health and tourism) across Europe. The task of the Weather Driven Natural Hazards Action (LMNH Unit, IES) of the JRC is to carry out the study on flood risk in Europe for the predefined projections of climate change.

This document outlines an integrated methodology for the assessment of current and future flood risk at the European scale. Changes in flood hazard obtained by combining highresolution regional climate scenarios with a hydrological model are transformed into direct monetary damage assessments using water depth-damage functions and land-use information. Results of the methodology are presented for the Upper Danube and Meuse catchments. For the Upper Danube the estimated total damage of a 100-year flood is projected to rise by ~40% of the current damage estimate (corresponds to an increase of €18.5 billion) for the high emission scenario (A2) and ~19% for the low emission scenario (B2). The number of people affected in the Upper Danube is projected to increase by 242,000 (~11%) for the A2, and 135,000 (~6%) for the B2 scenario. For the Meuse catchment, the total damage of a 100-year flood is projected to increase by ~14% for the A2 scenario and ~11% for the B2 scenario. For both scenarios, the estimated increase in number of people affected is approximately 4%.

These results serve as an initial, interim assessment until better information becomes available and some parts of the methods are elaborated in more detail. Several assumptions underlie the calculating of these costs, and should be kept in mind when interpreting the results.

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