The structural deterioration of water mains and their subsequent failure are affected by many factors, both static (e.g., pipe material, pipe size, age (vintage), soil type) and dynamic (e.g., climate, cathodic protection, pressure zone changes). This paper describes a non-homogeneous Poisson model developed for the analysis and forecast of breakage patterns in individual water mains, while considering both static and dynamic factors. Subsequently, these forecasted breakage patterns are used to schedule the renewal of water mains in an economically efficient manner, while considering the various associated costs, including economies of scale and scheduled works on adjacent infrastructure. In this paper, he principles of the approach are described briefly and its application is demonstrated with the help of a case study.
Keywords: Deterioration modelling, economies of scale, nonhomogeneous Poisson, renewal scheduling, water mains