Keywords: production availability, failure, opportunity, potential benefit, potential gain, potential loss, reward, risk assessment, risk management, simulation, decision making
Potential benefit, potential loss and potential gain from competing opportunity and failure events
A quantitative framework is presented dealing with competing opportunity and failure events in a finite time interval. The framework is based on the new fundamental concepts potential benefit, potential loss and potential gain, for which closed-form expressions regarding their distributions are derived and verified by a simulation. It is demonstrated that a decision strategy based on multiple event occurrences yields a very different gain compared with a decision strategy based on the next event occurrence. The results are illustrated by examples supporting decision making.