Inderscience Publishers

Potential use of transport and dispersion model output to supplement Allied Tactical Publication–45 hazard area prediction templates

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Allied Tactical Publication–45(C) is the current US and NATO command doctrine for Nuclear, Chemical and Biological (NBC) events. ATP–45 is designed to warn military populations of NBC hazard by providing area–warning templates based on NBC messages. ATP–45 is designed to produce a single 2–hour hazard area template that accounts for wind speed fluctuations, but it does not take into account time intervals of less than 2 hours and spatial and temporal variations in the wind field that could result in the incorrect orientation of the triangle template. Additionally, an abrupt discontinuity in the template from a circle to a triangle occurs as the wind speed passes through 2.78 ms−1(10 km/hr). This abrupt change is unrealistic and can result in a significant under– or over–prediction of the hazard area. In this paper we demonstrate how T&D models could help alleviate above problems and supplement ATP–45 hazard templates.

Keywords: ATP–45, CT–Analyst, hazard area prediction, real–time hazard area warning, dispersion modelling, pollutant dispersion, air pollution, hazardous release, wind velocity, wind fluctuations, NBC events

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