Keywords: energy consumption, passenger transport, gasoline, petrol, diesel, GHG emissions, greenhouse gases, multivariate regression, Jordan, passenger cars, fuel consumption, fuel demand, vehicle emissions
Prediction of energy consumption of passenger transportation and GHG emissions in Jordan
In this paper, the structure of the Jordanian transport sector is analysed with focus on passenger cars, which represent 65% of total vehicles and responsible for almost all of the national gasoline fuel demand. In order to achieve the objectives of this study, an empirical model is developed based on multivariate linear regression analysis to identify key drivers that influence gasoline consumption. In addition, possible impacts of introducing diesel powered saloon cars, as an energy efficiency measure to the passenger cars market, on the future energy demand and associated reduction in GHG emissions are analysed and evaluated using different scenarios. Based on the conducted analysis, it was found that the number of cars, income level and unit gasoline price are the most important variables that affect present and future gasoline demand. The obtained results proved that the multivariate linear regression models can be used adequately to simulate gasoline consumption with very high coefficient of determination. Without the introduction of diesel driven cars, gasoline consumption is expected to rise by approximately 88.8% within the next decade. However, such category of cars are allowed to replace some of the existing fleet, on a gradual basis, gasoline consumption as well as GHG emissions are forecasted to increase but at a lower rates. But this requires concerned governmental institutions to take necessary actions and adopt feasible policies aiming to encourage use of diesel driven cars in Jordan.