Keywords: macroscale policy, probabilistic risk assessment, thermodynamics, engineering economics, climate change decisions, policy choices, global warming, electrical grid distribution, electric power generation, customer demand, renewable energy
Probabilistic thermoeconomic risk assessment for evaluating climate change decisions
Climate change is often considered in terms of its macroscale implications. But macroscale policy decisions may also significantly impact the localised design of products and services in different business ecosystems. This paper addresses this disconnect by exploring a methodology that combines engineering economics, probabilistic risk assessment, and thermodynamic analysis to evaluate different policy choices. The approach is demonstrated in the context of a representative segment of a hypothetical electrical grid distribution system located between two Electric Power Generating Stations (EPGS) facing overload as additional customer demands are projected to be integrated with renewable sources in the near-term future.