The impact of climate change on local discharge variability is investigated in the Kone River basin located in Central Vietnam. In this study, historical and predicted river discharge trends are discussed. The predicted discharge is simulated using the BTOPMC model based on the A1B scenario as a scientific basis for socioeconomic development and integrated water resource management in the Kone River basin, during the period 2011–2034. During the period 1979–2007, annual discharge in the Kone River basin trended upwards slightly. However, both maximum and minimum discharges declined. The results of the predicted discharge under the A1B scenario suggest that river flow will increase slightly in the Kone River basin in the future. Both annual and flood season discharges will tend to increase during the period 2011–2034. In contrast, discharge during the low flow season will tend to decrease over the same period. For the period 2011–2034, the discharge volume in the Kone River will increase by 3%, in comparison with the period 1980–1999. Water volume will decrease by about 18.6% during the flood season and increase by approximately 90.0% during the low flow season relative to the period 1980–1999.
Keywords: climate change, distributed hydrological model, Kone River, river discharge