Keywords: cellular automata, CA, Monte Carlo simulation, security assessment, complex networks, critical infrastructures, terrorist threat, terrorist attacks, poison, water distribution systems, hazard propagation
Security assessment in complex networks exposed to terrorist hazard: a simulation approach
This paper presents a methodological approach combining Cellular Automata (CA) and Monte Carlo (MC) simulation for computing the security characteristics of a system exposed to terrorist attacks, such as the injection of poison in the water distribution system of a populated area. The physical system can be modelled as a network (graph) of nodes interconnected by links. CA are employed to describe the dynamics of spread of the hazard through the network, considering a simple continuity framework. The MC method allows simulating the stochastics of the hazard propagation between the nodes of the network and its effect.