Sensitivity analysis (SA) is studying the impact input changes (nature and magnitude) have on outputs. The objective of this paper is to present a methodology to perform sensitivity analysis on a system dynamics simulation model that was developed in support of the Secure Border Initiative (SBI). Specifically the analysis will investigate Section 287(g) of The Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act (1996). Due to the fact that the systems dynamics model used is a deterministic model, there was a need to induce variability using random sampling. The variability was propagated through the outputs and allowed the researchers to identify not only point estimates of what increases are required to bring the 287(g) policy to baseline values, but also calculate confidence bands. Implementing the 287(g) policy with no other system adjustments has a detrimental impact on performance in terms of fugitives and non-criminal removals.
Keywords: sensitivity analysis, system of systems, system dynamics, 287(g) programme, secure border initiative, SBI, expert judgment, uncertainty