Keywords: credibility, emergency zoning, integrated PRA, probabilistic risk assessment, sensitivity analysis, severe accident procedures, uncertainty analysis
Sensitivity and uncertainty issues in the integrated PRA studies
The performance of risk analyses in the Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) format is being done based on various internationally accepted standards. As part of the compliance with those standards the issue of credibility of results of the levels 2 and 3 and their correlation with the results from deterministic analyses is a very important one. If these margins are properly identified, then the level 2 results for support and/or main source to the Severe Accident Procedures and the level 3 as technical input in deriving the emergency zoning criteria, would be solved to a significant level. The paper presents some specific approaches to be adopted for the sensitivity analyses of an integrated PRA model and attempts to clarify the place and interface of the uncertainty analyses versus sensitivity analyses for PRA levels 2 and 3.