Keywords: earthquake consequences, earthquake loss estimation (ELE), sensitivity analysis, earthquake risk, HAZUS
Sensitivity of earthquake loss estimation model: how useful are the predictions
This paper describes sensitivity analysis of HAZUS for earthquake scenarios for San Francisco County. Guidelines are suggested that could be used when using HAZUS to prepare for a response to an earthquake catastrophe in the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), and for other regions. Urbanisation compounds the problems associated with earthquake disasters in large cities. Furthermore, forecasting of unknown accuracy of earthquake loss estimation is of limited use and can be very misleading to stakeholders. Ground failure effect is the most sensitive parameter in HAZUS earthquake loss estimation, followed by choosing the attenuation function, subsequently, site effect parameters and, lastly, effects of building construction parameters. The building construction sensitivity on the economic losses is relatively stable. For the other loss estimations, the sensitivity of the other analysis parameters either enlarges or diminishes with the increase in earthquake magnitude.