Inderscience Publishers

Stochastic modelling of rainfall and runoff phenomenon: a time series approach review

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Rainfall-runoff simulation and forecasting is essential for disaster management, planning, designing and operation of water resource projects. This paper reviews the till date development and current status of time series analysis-based modelling and simulation attempts of rainfall-runoff phenomenon. The discussion starts with the historical demand to forecast the chaotic natural process of rainfall-runoff. The study reveals earlier attempts for simulation of the rainfall-runoff event using regression, autoregressive, moving average, and combinations of these methods. The paper further focuses in detail about the advanced method that is Box Jenkins techniques and its derivatives (e.g. SARIMA, PARMA, TRANSFER FUNCTION etc.), for simulation of river rainfall and runoff with better accuracy. Attempt is made to include up-to-date studies for forecasting of rainfall and associated runoff using time series methods from different parts of the world and for various applications.

Keywords: rainfall-runoff, stochastic, modelling, hydrology, forecasting, transfer-function

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