IWA Publishing

Study of the variation trend, abrupt behavior and relationship between climate and planting structure in a cold region of China: a case study of Heilongjiang Province

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Courtesy of IWA Publishing

Climate change has changed planting structure greatly in cold regions. Studies are needed that understand the relationship between climate change and agriculture in cold regions and to serve as references for studies of the impact of climate change on agriculture in similar areas. This paper uses Heilongjiang Province as a case study; seven test methods and mutual information were used to analyse the variation trend, abrupt changes and relationship between climate and planting structure. The following was concluded. (1) The precipitation trend was not significant; temperature showed a significant upward trend, the minimum temperature showed the sharpest increase. (2) The proportion of area planted in rice and maize showed a significant upward trend. The trend of rice was the most pronounced, the trend of wheat significantly decreased. (3) Abrupt changes in temperature occurred in the 1980s; abrupt changes in wheat were concentrated at the end of the 1990s. (4) The relationship between temperature and planting structure was stronger than that of precipitation, and the relationship between minimum temperature and planting structure was stronger than that of maximum temperature. The results show that temperature variables, especially minimum temperature, are the main factors affecting the change in planting structure in cold regions.

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