John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The challenge of predicting problematic chemicals using a decision analysis tool: Triclosan as a case study

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Manufacturers lack a reliable means for determining whether a chemical will be targeted for deselection from their supply chain. In this analysis, three methods for determining whether a specific chemical (triclosan) would meet the criteria necessary for being targeted for deselection are presented. The methods included a list‐based approach, use of a commercially available chemical assessment software tool run in two modes, and a public interest evaluation. Our results indicated that triclosan was included on only 6 of the lists reviewed, none of which were particularly influential in chemical selection decisions. The results from the chemical assessment tool evaluations indicated that human and ecological toxicity for triclosan is low and received scores indicating that the chemical would be considered of low concern. However, triclosan's peak public interest tracked several years in advance of increased regulatory scrutiny of this chemical suggests that public pressure may have been influential in deselection decisions. Key data gaps and toxicity endpoints not yet regulated such as endocrine disruption potential or phototoxicity, but which are important in order to estimate the trajectory for deselection of a chemical, are discussed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

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