The Development of Integrated Databases For Environmental And Natural Risk Assessment in The Area of The Tisza River


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 In the frame of the mission of the Joint Research Centre, the work of the Land Management and Natural Hazards Unit (LMNHU) aims to improve:

• the understanding and prediction of regional changes in climate and extreme weather events;
• the quantification of climate change impacts at the continental, regional, and local levels;
• the analysis of adaptation and risk mitigation activities;
• the integration of all aspects of the climate change issue into strategies for sustainable development;

The work is based on the combination of the catchments-based hydrological rainfall-runoff model LISFLOOD (De Roo et al., 2000 & 2001) and a land use forecasting model, the MOLAND urban and regional growth model (Lavalle et al., 2004, Barredo et al., 2004a). Based on the assumption that the spatial dimension is one of the key elements to foster sustainable development, a complex modelling system is being developed to integrate the LISFLOOD and MOLAND forecasting capabilities.

For the physical impact assessment of flood and drought, high-resolution regional climate scenarios are combined with a well-calibrated hydrological model implemented at a spatial and temporal scale appropriate for simulating extreme water levels. Future land use scenarios are simulated by means of the MOLAND regional growth model. Regarding floods, water depth-damage functions and land-use information are then used to transform the calculated inundation water depths into direct monetary damage assessments.

The outcomes of this approach can be summarized in: hazard and vulnerability mapping, forecasted risk maps (based on future scenarios), realistic assessment of planning and technical measures for adaptation measures.
The methodology is currently applied on several areas (typically river catchments) in Europe. The Tisza river catchment is one of the test-areas used in the research work.

This technical note describes the database that has been built for the middle and the lower part of the Tisza catchment area. The database furnishes key input data layers for the MOLAND regional growth system.
The data procurement has been performed by a consortium led by the Centre of Excellence ‘Dynamics of complex geo-Systems (DKS)’ at the Department of Geoinformatics, Hydrology and Modelling (DGHM) of the Friedrich-Schiller University (FSU-Jena) under contract n. 21528-2003-12 F1SC ISP DE

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