Keywords: energy intensity, energy per capita dynamics, long-range tendencies, economic growth, scenarios, Russia
The dynamics of the energy intensity of the Russian economy against the background of global trends
The paper addresses and compares the dynamics of energy intensity of Russia and some industrial countries. The possible impacts of two scenarios of Russian economy development in the next 30 years on the energy intensity of industry, transport and residential sectors are considered. A forecasting method is based on application of a set of models, including a 20-sector dynamic model of Russia's economy. Analysis shows that the autonomous decline in energy/GNP ratio in Russia will be much more intensive than in Europe. However, all things being equal, the energy intensity of the economy and per capita energy consumption in Russia should be higher than in Western Europe due to peculiarities in the structure of the economy, the climate and other factors.