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The estimation of mean monthly discharges of the Karasu River using the Thomas-Fiering method

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Hydrological forecasts are one of the most important aspects of applied hydrology. Such forecasts become increasingly necessary as the economy expands and utilisation of water resources in each country increases. Yet many of the requirements relating to hydrological forecasts cannot be fully satisfied at the present stage of the development of hydrology and meteorology. Hydrological forecasts are necessary in connection with the rational regulation of run-off, the utilisation of river energy, inland navigation, irrigation, water sports and water supplies. These forecasts are also of great importance in coping with dangerous phenomena and construction of hydraulic structures on rivers. The economic value of hydrological forecasts depends on their accuracy and the period of time they cover. The greater their accuracy and the longer the period they cover, the greater is their economic value in connection with planning electric power production, the operation of inland navigation, irrigation, water sports, etc. The aim of this study is to forecast the mean monthly discharges of the Karasu River in the eastern part of Turkey in the 2000 water year using the Thomas-Fiering model, which is a first order Markov model whose parameters change during the year. The stream gauging station whose mean monthly flow discharge will be estimated is Karasu River-Asagikagdiric (2154). All available data for monthly mean flow discharge are used to produce the synthetic data to enable the estimation to be made.

Keywords: hydrological forecasts, stream gauging, mean monthly flow discharge, Thomas-Fiering method, Markov process, Karasu River

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