Keywords: climate change, prediction, Climate Convention, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, Science Assessment Working Group, global warming, greenhouse gases, GHG emissions, sulphur pollution, ozone depletion
The scientific basis for the prediction of climate change
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently published a Supplementary Report updating and supporting the First Assessment of 1990 and their findings are summarised here. If greenhouse emissions continue at the present level, the Report estimates a global temperature increase of 0.3% per decade – a rate probably greater than any since the last ice age. Sulphur pollution and ozone depletion provide two complications for the assessment of global warming as they can both lead to cooling. However, neither effect should have much influence on the long-term problem of warming.