Turkey Power Report Q1 2013 RnR Market Research


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Despite the fact that several of Turkey's economic challenges - including a significant current account deficit, elevated inflation and high cost of credit - have not dissipated yet, various macro and sector-specific indicators signal that Turkey is undergoing a gradual rebalancing of its economy. While a sharp decline in economic activity in 2012 has taken its toll on power consumption, we remain optimistic about the power industry's growth potential. However, we highlight that plans to increase coal-fired generation appear to reflect a political move, rather than any long-term energy strategy.

With our view for a sharp decline in economic activity in 2012 having played out, we have downwardly revised our growth estimate for the country's power sector for the year. We believe that electricity consumption saw real growth of 6.89% year-on-year (y-o-y), down from a previous forecast of 7.90%.

We believe that generation growth came as close in growth terms, reaching 6.87%.

As highlighted in previous analysis, though not out of the woods yet, the Turkish economy seems to have turned a corner. The Turkish authorities have thus far successfully steered the domestic economy away from a hard landing, with evidence of a rebalancing away from an overreliance on domestic demand towards a greater focus on exports and a more welcoming monetary policy. Coupled with diminishing demand-side inflationary pressures, these factors support not only a brighter short-term outlook for the country's power market, but also reinforce our relatively bullish view on the power industry's growth potential- especially when compared to expectations for power markets in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE).

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With this in mind, we highlight that decisions regarding the country's capacity expansion plans and the future shape of its energy mix will be key in defining opportunities, most notably:

The government's decision to approve natural gas and electricity price increases in October 2012creates upside and downside risks to our outlook. Designed to support public finances, the move could also incentivise investment into the sector, improving the stance of power generators. Yet, we note that the hike is set to have an impact on inflation and could also have negative effects on power demand.

A certain degree of confusion has emerged in the thermal segment, following repeated announcements by the government that tenders for five to six gigawatts (GW) of new coal-fired plants could be opened soon. However, we judge this to be a political move rather than a longterm energy strategy and question the viability of this push.

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Table Of Contents

BMI Industry View

SWOT Analysis

Turkey Power SWOT

Regional Overview

Industry Forecast Scenario

Turkey Macroeconomic Snapshot

Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data

Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector

Turkey Forecast Scenario


Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity


Table: Turkey Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017


Table: Turkey Total Electricity Generation Long Term Forecasts, 2014-2021


Table: Turkey Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017


Table: Turkey Electricity Generating Capacity Long Term Forecasts, 2014-2021


Electricity Consumption


Table: Turkey Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017


Table: Turkey Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014- 2021


Transmission, Distribution, Imports And Exports


Table: Turkey Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017


Table: Turkey Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2014 -2021


Table: Turkey Trade Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017


Table: Turkey Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2014- 2021


Key Policies/Market Structure


Regulation And Competition


Sustainable Energy Policies




Key Projects Database


Table: Key Projects - Power


Risk/Reward Ratings


Central And Eastern Europe Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings


Table: Central and Eastern Europe Power Risk/Reward Ratings


Turkey's Power Risk/Reward Ratings




Competitive Landscape/Company Monitor


Glossary of Terms


Table: Glossary of Terms


Methodology And Sources


Industry Forecasts


Power Industry - Data Methodology


Generation And Consumption Data


Electricity Generation Capacity Data


Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology


Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators




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