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Uncertainties in the meteorological input of the chemistry-transport models and some examples of their consequences

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In this article, selected weather prediction model parameters, which are important for air pollution studies, were verified against measurements at two sounding stations in Finland. In 1996–1998, the short-time model-measurement differences were rather high. The friction velocity was on average overestimated by 30–70%, the mixing height during spring months was underestimated by up to 60%, 2 m temperature was overestimated in winter and underestimated in summer. Two weather forecast sets were compared with each other and with measurements for January–May 2003. Simulations with a chemistry-transport model were carried out for estimating the effect of different meteorological forcing on the air pollution levels. When the most recent meteorological forecasts were used, the transport distance of the air pollutants from Central European source areas to Scandinavia was shorter than the previous calculations showed.

Keywords: weather forecasting model, model-measurement intercomparison, verification, atmospheric boundary layer parameters, air pollution model, deposition, pollutant concentration, chemistry transport model, meteorological input, meteorological data, atmospheric dispersion modelling, air quality, uncertainty

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