Waves of the Future

The Depletion Wall


We have seen how oil shortages can wreak havoc on the global economy and result in dramatic shifts in politics and regional balance of power. Are other minerals close to being depleted? What impact would that have on the world economy and international politics? These are questions that The Depletion Wall attempts to answer. It is the second book of the Waves of the Future Series.

Authors / Editors:

It bring us up to date on the latest mineral reserve data and years of supply. It also looks at model simulations to see what would happen when shortages of non-renewable resources begin to occur.

In the early 1970s, the Club of Rome ran interactive computer simulations (Model3) and released the results in a report called Limits to Growth. Model3`s business-as-usual scenario pointed to a potential world collapse in the second half of this century. This was met with a lot of disbelief and criticism at the time.

But, is this really a possibility? The world economy has been relatively fragile for decades, being thrown off more than once by oil crises and almost collapsing more recently as a result of the global banking crisis.

Interestingly enough, a new study by Graham M. Turner compared statistics from 1970 to 2000 to see whether real world data would vindicate the Club of Rome or its critics. The results:

      The analysis shows that 30 years of historical data compare favorably
      with key features of a business-as-usual scenario called the “standard
      run” scenario, which results in collapse of the global system midway
      through the 21st century. (A Comparison of The Limits to Growth With
      30 Years of Reality)

Henderson`s book analyzes the latest mineral reserve data from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to see whether those also point in the same direction and reaches the same conclusion.

The book covers many more topics (historical examples and causes of social collapse, population growth forecasts, Malthusian theory and population growth cycles, economics of poverty, the wall effect of exponential growth, market size myths, depopulation economics and strategies, the aging baby boomer generation problem, etc.), non only to set arguments within context but also support and firmly establish conclusions:

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