2013 Russia Petrochemicals Industry


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Russian petrochemicals capacity expansion over the medium term will be stimulated by expansion of nonoil
industrial sectors and domestic market growth. BMI believes that a structural change in the economy
towards domestic demand-led growth should benefit the petrochemicals industry, which is expected to see
polymers capacity exceed 10mn tonnes per annum (tpa) by 2017 - a three-fold increase from that seen in
2008. Domestically-driven growth should ensure expansion does not lead to an imbalance between supply
and demand, although in some segments there is the prospect of exports.

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We are revising down our 2013 real GDP forecast for Russia to 2.6%, from a previous forecast of 3.6%, on
the back of signals that President Vladimir Putin is willing to let headline growth drop below the 3.0% level
over 2013. However, most petrochemicals-consuming segments are set to outstrip GDP growth, with
industrial growth anticipated to rebound to 6.8%, from the 5.2% contraction seen in 2012. While economic
activity may be slowing, the output of key products from polymers grew 10% year-on-year (y-o-y) in H113.
Russian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 59% between 2013 and 2017, compared
with a regional growth average of 42%, which should boost the polyethene segment.

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