The McIlvaine Company

$300 Million to $1 Billion Per Year Activated Carbon Market


Source: The McIlvaine Company

The world market for activated carbon for stack gas mercury capture will grow tremendously in the next eight years.  However because of the many variables it is unclear as to whether the annual revenues will grow to $300 million or to $1 billion.  In any case, substantial investment in new activated carbon production facilities will be needed to meet this demand.   The capital equipment investment for mercury injection systems over the next eight years will be $200 million to $900 million ($25 million-110 million/yr.)   Thus, the consumables market will be an order of magnitude larger than the capital equipment market.

These are the preliminary forecasts in the new, continually updated, Mercury Control: World Markets service offered by the McIlvaine Company.  Currently the present best McIlvaine forecast of the carbon market is $490 million in 2015.  But, as the impact of the many variables becomes clarified, the forecast will continue to be adjusted to include both a minimum and maximum and present best forecast.

U.S. coal-fired power plants will purchase more than half the activated carbon and invest in more than 75 percent of the capital equipment needed for mercury control.  These forecasts do not include the removal of mercury as a co-benefit of SO2 and NOx removal.  However, the multi-billion dollar investment in these technologies will account for the majority of the mercury reduction.

The U.S. utility purchases of carbon will be large, but the present forecast is subject to constant change and refinement.  Initiatives by States, Congress, and the Federal EPA could have a significant impact.  Also, technology developments are another variable which will need to be constantly monitored.

To deal with the rapidly changing environment, Mercury Control: World Markets includes a database and analysis of every coal-fired power plant in every state.  Forecasts for activated carbon consumption for each unit are displayed and then revised as warranted.

The data includes operating hours, coal type, sulfur content, relevant existing air pollution control equipment, and other data which are important to the site specific forecasts.

A state by state analysis is provided due to the major role that state regulations are creating.

Also included in the services is a tracking system with a weekly Alert covering regulatory and project news.

A Mercury Decision Tree with technical and commercial information is also included.

Previously recorded and future bi-monthly webinars on mercury control provide further basis for analysis.

A forecast of coal-fired power generation capacity through 2015 for every country of the world is also included.

Waste-to-Energy plants will create the second biggest market for activated carbon.  Waste consumption capacity in tons per day for each country along with monthly updates on new projects is included.

There is considerable question as to the ability of activated carbon producers to meet the demand.  Analysis of individual suppliers and other markets is included and conclusions made as to additional demand needs.

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