Navigant Consulting, Inc. (NCI)

Annual Sales of Light Duty Vehicles Are Expected to Exceed 122 Million by 2035


Source: Navigant Consulting, Inc. (NCI)

Consumer acceptance of alternative fuel vehicles and technologies are expected to vary regionally, report finds

A new report from Navigant Research analyzes the market for light duty vehicles (LDVs) in eight segments, including global forecasts for sales and the number of vehicles in use, segmented by region, drivetrain, and primary fuel, through 2035.

More than 95 percent of the world’s 1.2 billion vehicles belong to the LDV segment, most of which relies on conventional internal combustion engines (ICE) powered by either gasoline or diesel. In the long term, factors such as new transportation business models for LDVs and increased urbanization are expected to put downward pressure on sales, particularly as governments push initiatives for improved fuel economy, new transportation options, and alternatives fuel vehicles (AFVs). Click to tweet: According to a new report from Navigant Research, global annual LDV sales are expected to grow from 88.8 million vehicles in 2015 to 122.6 million in 2035.

“LDV sales are expected to increase, with growth concentrated in developing countries in Asia Pacific and with stop-start systems projected to grow most significantly as a strategy to comply with international fuel efficiency standards,” says Scott Shepard, research analyst with Navigant Research. “LDVs primarily fueled by gasoline are expected to fall as a percentage of the overall global fleet from 82% in 2015 to less than 71% in 2035, particularly as diesel, electricity, and other alternative fuels become more price competitive and their respective infrastructure becomes more available.”

Much of the transformation occurring in the LDV landscape is due to society’s consumption of oil, according to the report. While most governments have categorically supported a comprehensive strategy to reduce oil dependency in the transportation sector, the depth of that support varies with each vehicle technology, regional fuel costs, and refueling infrastructure availability, which all play a major role in consumer acceptance of alternative fuels.

The report, Transportation Forecast: Light Duty Vehicles, analyzes the global LDV market in eight segments: stop-start vehicles (SSVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), NGVs, fuel cell vehicles (FCVs), propane autogas vehicles (PAGVs) and conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Since SSV, HEV, PHEV, and ICE vehicle segmentations are either solely or partially fueled by blends of gasoline or diesel, forecasts of these segments are broken out by fuel (as well as by region). Global market forecasts for sales and the number of vehicles in use, segmented by country, drivetrain, and primary fuel, extend through 2035. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the Navigant Research website.

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