Australian streamflow forecasts


Victoria, Australia, received almost three times its usual rainfall, making January 2011 the wettest on record. This heavy rainfall resulted in major and moderate flooding spanning north, west and central Victoria, particularly in the Loddon and Campaspe River systems. Streamflow forecasts suggest that higher than average flows are the most likely outcome during February to April. The catchments remain saturated and because this is a low flow period, the flow required to reach the high flow threshold is less than preceding seasons such as January to March.

Inflow to Lake Eppalock in the Campaspe basin for the November to January period was nearly 30 times the average and 4.5 times the highest ever recorded for the same period since records began over 100 years ago. The monthly streamflow data for Lake Eppalock is shown as a boxplot on the streamflow website.

Forecasts for the seasons starting in August, September, October and November 2010 were considered highly successful with more than 80% correctly predicting the observed streamflow tercile. This is shown in the graph below and on the Hit and Miss graphic on the streamflow website.

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