For southeast Australia, the pattern of seasonal temperature odds is mostly a result of warm conditions in the Indian Ocean in January; the Pacific Ocean has had little contribution to this forecast.
The chances of above median maximum temperatures over March to May are below 40% for Victoria and southeast South Australia. This means for every ten years with ocean patterns like the current, about 6 would be expected to be cooler than average in terms of daytime temperatures averaged over March to May, while four would be expected to be warmer. Elsewhere in south east Australia the chances of exceeding the median maximum temperatures is between 40 and 50%.
Outlook confidence is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian Oceans affect Australian temperatures. During March to May, history shows this effect on maximum temperatures to be moderately consistent over all of Victoria and Tasmania, the South East districts of South Australia, and far southern, coastal and north eastern NSW. However, for the remainder of southeast Australia, including most of inland NSW, confidence is only weakly to very weakly consistent, thus the outlook for these areas needs to be used with caution (see background information).
The chances of exceeding median minimum temperatures are over 60% in northeastern NSW but grade down to 40% for southern South Australia, south western NSW and all of Victoria, and drop below 35% for south eastern South Australia and the western inland of Victoria. The remainder of southeast Australia, including Tasmania and northern South Australia, has about even chances of above or below average overnight temperatures.
History shows the oceans' effect on minimum temperatures from March to May to be moderately consistent over parts of north eastern NSW, western Victoria, and the South East districts of South Australia. Elsewhere the effect is only weakly or very weakly consistent, so for these areas the outlook needs to be used with caution (see background information).