China Ethylene & Ethylene Glycol Industry 2017 Forecasts & Analysis


'The production scale and output of ethylene are the important indicators that measure a country’s chemical level. Analysis and Forecast of China Ethylene Industry, 2013-2017, released by Huidian Research, shows that as of the end of 2012, the newly increased production capacity of China’s ethylene was 1.4 million tons per year and the total production capacity was 17.095 million tons per year rising by 6.3% compared with 2011 and ranking the world second. 

Seen from the distribution region, China has basically formed the three top ethylene industry cluster areas, namely the Yangtze River Delta, Bohai Rim and Pearl River Delta, the production capacity of which respectively accounts for 26%, 29% and 13% of the total production capacity across the country. In order to adapt to the demand growth of petrochemical products in Midwest, some large ethylene production bases have been accomplished or under the construction in Xinjiang, Gansu, Sichuan and other Midwest regions. With the rising of Central China and implementation of the Great Western Development Strategy, China’s ethylene industry again shows the trend of radiating to the inland from the costal. 

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According to the Ethylene Industry 12th-Five-Year Planning, during the 12th-Five-Year period, there will form 3 to 4 ethylene production bases with the production capacity of more than 2 million tons per year in the Yangtze River Delta centered by Shanghai, Nanjing and Zhenhai of Zhejiang province; the Pearl River Delta will mainly develop the advantageous products and derivative products with high added-value and characteristics; the Bohai Rim will lay out the large ethylene devices centered by Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan and Fushun; the Midwest will form 4 ethylene bases based on large refining projects. After these large ethylene devices are accomplished the construction, the layout of China’s ethylene industry will be more optimized.  

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China is the largest consumption country of ethylene glycol ( the world, the import dependence degree is more than 70%. In 2012, the production capacity of China’s ethylene glycol was 4.12 million tons of tons with the output of 2.77 million tons and apparent consumption volume of 10.72 million tons, rising 14.5% year-on-year. Because of the continuous upheaval of world economy, coupled with the trend of national stabilization policy, the textile export is affected by the international situations to some extent, making the demand growth limited; it is estimated that the demand for ethylene glycol is 11.79 million tons by 2013. 

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For recent years, the production capacity of China’s ethylene glycol has made great progress, but the output doesn’t increase significantly; one of the reasons lies in the transportation of ethylene glycol raw materials. The core raw material of the traditional petrochemical routine ethylene glycol is the ethylene oxide. As the transportation of ethylene oxide is limited, the ethylene glycol device should rely on the construction of ethylene plants. So that decides the production capacity of domestic ethylene glycol mainly concentrates in the large petrochemical enterprises. The other main reason lies in the insufficient competitiveness of domestic high production cost and the shocks of overseas low cost products. 

The ethylene glycol downstream market: the total polymerization capacity of the domestic polyester enterprises was about 37 million tons in 2012, among which, the output of the domestic polyester filament was about 21.55 million tons with the year-on-year growth of about 12%. As of the end of 2012, the domestic polyester filament was about 26.70 million tons and accounting by that, the operating rate of domestic polyester filament was more than 80% in 2012, which was similar to that of 2011 and 2010.  

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