The McIlvaine Company

Many environmental markets will grow despite the recession

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Source: The McIlvaine Company

Air and water pollution control companies have been reporting record profits.  While they won't be setting records in 2009 and 2010, they will be balancing lost sales in some markets with growth in others.  This is the conclusion of the McIlvaine Company based on its continual forecasting of individual markets by product, industry and country. One of the biggest revenue generators will continue to be the power plant scrubber market. Worldwide orders will drop from US$11 billion in 2008 to US$8 billion in 2009 and US$7 billion in 2010. However, revenue for suppliers will reflect the large order level in 2008 through 2010.  This is due to the fact that revenues are generally recorded over a three to four year period on each project.   Orders throughout the next decade will remain far above the pre-2000 levels.

A similar trend exists for selective catalytic reduction systems for coal-fired power plants. Purchases in China, U.S., and Europe will be strong.  Power plant particulate control sales are likely to accelerate due to new fine particle regulations.

Sales of air pollution control equipment for waste-to-energy and biomass power plants will be up.  This will be offset by losses in steel, mining and cement.  However, the stimulus package could offset some of the impact in the cement markets.  Sales of fabric filter replacement bags will be relatively unaffected by the recession.

Sales of macro filtration equipment for municipal wastewater including belt presses, sand filters, and filter presses will exceed $700 million in 2009 offsetting some shrinkage in the mining industry.  The U.S. stimulus effort will be a substantial boost to sales in the U.S.  Infrastructure plans in most developing countries will continue as planned.  Some countries such as China will expand their investment to provide stimulus.

Sales of sedimentation and centrifugation equipment including clarifiers, centrifuges, and hydro cyclones will be down slightly, but the wastewater segment will grow this year by $30 million to over $1 billion.  Infrastructure stimulus benefits will also boost this market but will be offset by mining market shrinkage.

Cross-flow filtration sales will be up due to continued growth in wastewater and desalination. Total sales will exceed $9 billion in 2009 despite slumping sales in the residential reverse osmosis segment.  Desalination expenditures in some smaller Middle Eastern countries may be slowed, but on balance this segment will continue to grow.

Sales of air and water monitoring equipment will grow modestly.  The measurement of ambient pollution in developing countries is a strong growth area.  China will continue to improve its stack monitoring efforts.

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