The Global Carbon Trading Market: Concepts, Regulations and Industry Trends to 2020

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The Global Carbon Trading Market: Concepts, Regulations and Industry Trends to 2020 

Carbon Trading Market 

Description
GBI Research’s report, “The Global Carbon Trading Market - Concepts, Regulations and Industry Trends to 2020” provides an in-depth analysis on the global carbon trading market. The report provides the latest information on the value, volume and price of the emissions traded in primary project-based mechanisms such as Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), Joint Implementation (JI) and secondary CDM, and allowance markets such as the EU Emission Trading System (ETS), New South Wales Exchange, Chicago Climate Exchange, the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) and Assigned Amount Units (AAUs). The report provides a scenario-based forecast of the carbon market up to 2020. The report provides an overview on various carbon registries, carbon exchanges and the major companies participating in the carbon trade. The research work provides indispensable assessment of risk and opportunities for the corporate in the carbon constraint environment. Regulatory efforts to mitigate climate change have spawned an emerging carbon market that grew at compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 89% to reach $138.3 billion in 2009. The EU’s initiatives to build a broad, globally linked carbon market, the prospective US Federal cap-and-trade program and the strong emergence of other regional market trading mechanisms will drive the carbon market significantly beyond 2012.

Scope

  • Key market data on the volume and market value of carbon allowances, covering both project-based transactions and allowance-based transactions from 2004-2009.
  • Analysis on all global carbon market exchanges — the EU Emission Trading System (ETS), New South Wales Exchange, Chicago Climate Exchange, the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI), Australian Climate Exchange, World Green Exchange etc.
  • Historic pricing trends for carbon in various exchanges and project-based transactions from 2005-2009.
  • Forecasts of the global carbon trading market up to 2020 based on likely scenarios that might emerge in the future.
  • Impact assessment of key carbon regulations and policies and their impact on the growth of global carbon trading market.
  • Analyzes market-based instruments such as certifications and standards used in carbon trading in 2009.
  • Overview on investment firms, infrastructure and energy service providers, advisory companies, financial firms, brokerage firms, carbon solution providers and other auditing firms participating in carbon trade.
  • Key emission trading companies covered include 3 Degrees Incorporated, APX Incorporated, Baker & McKenzie, Blue Source, CantorCO2e, Climate Focus and Credit Suisse
  • Assessment of risk and opportunities for the corporate in the carbon constraint environment

Reasons to buy

  • Navigate the carbon emission market landscape through detailed analysis of the current carbon market dynamics and potential changes
  • Identify the most promising geography to invest in energy efficiency and renewable energy projects, in order to minimize carbon taxes.
  • Identify the most promising geography to invest in the unconventional and renewable energy sectors to minimize carbon taxes.
  • Develop custom strategies for different geographies based on the stringency of the carbon policy in the respective geography.
  • Develop business strategies with the help of specific insights into policy decisions being taken on the carbon credits trade by EU 27, the US, Australia and other developed and emerging countries worldwide.
  • Identify risks associated with tightening carbon emission cap and transform them into opportunities for future growth.

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 6
1.1 List of Tables 8
1.2 List of Figures 9 

2 Introduction 10
2.1 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions and Their Impact on Global Carbon Trading Markets 10
2.1.1 Impact of Greenhouse Gases on Ecology 10
2.1.2 Naturally Occurring Carbon Cycle 11
2.1.3 Global Initiatives to Reduce Carbon Footprint 12

3 Origins of Carbon Trading Market and Exchanges 14
3.1 Evolution of Carbon Trading Market 14
3.2 Global and Regional Carbon Exchanges 15

4 Kyoto Protocol, a Precursor of Emissions Trading Systems 17
4.1 Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) 19
4.1.1 CDM Project Activity Cycle 20
4.1.2 Joint Implementation (JI) and Assigned Amount Unit (AAU) 20
4.1.3 Emission Trading 28

5 Global Carbon Trading Market: Dynamics and Statistics 29
5.1 Global Carbon Trading Market Overview 29
5.2 Global Allowance Markets 31
5.2.1 The EU Emission Trading Scheme: Still the Most Prominent Carbon Market 32
5.2.2 The US Market 33
5.2.3 The Australian Market 35
5.3 Global Project-based Market 36
5.3.1 Primary Project-based Market 37
5.3.2 Secondary Project-based Market 56
5.4 Post 2012 Market Uncertainty: Scenario Based Forecast to 2020 57
5.4.1 Linear Growth: Moderate Market with Current Programs and Policies 57
5.4.2 Scaling Up: Implementation of US Cap-and-Trade Program and EU Integrated Systems 59
5.4.3 Global Reach: Collaboration of EU, the US and Developing Nations 61

6 Global Carbon Credits Market Policy Framework Facilitating Emissions Trading 63
6.1 Overview of Regulatory Framework for Emission Trading Systems 63
6.1.1 American Clean Energy and Security Act and its Implications 63
6.1.2 European Unions Climate Change Policy 64
6.1.3 Climate Change Initiatives in Canada and Prospects for Emissions Trading 67
6.1.4 Australias Climate Change Initiatives will Aid the Emission Trading Mechanism 67
6.2 Increasing Role of International Emissions Trading and International Emissions Trading Association (IETA) in Boosting the Market 68
6.2.1 Objectives of IETA 68
6.2.2 Programs by IETA 68
6.3 Various Regulatory Frameworks and Regional Initiatives in the US 69
6.3.1 American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 70
6.3.2 Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) in the US 71
6.3.3 California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 AB 32 73
6.3.4 Western Climate Initiative (WCI) 73
6.3.5 Midwestern Regional GHG Reduction Accord (MGGRA) 74
6.3.6 EPA Climate Leaders 74
6.3.7 Hawaii Global Warming Solutions Act of 2007 74
6.4 European Union Emissions Trading System Promotes Emissions Trading Market 75
6.4.1 EU ETS 75
6.4.2 Revised EU ETS 75
6.5 Japans Keidanren Voluntary Action Plan and Other Voluntary Markets 77
6.6 Emission Reduction Schemes of Australia 78
6.6.1 New South Wales Greenhouse Gas Abatement Scheme 78
6.6.2 Greenhouse Challenge Plus 78
6.6.3 Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme 78
6.7 Canadian Governments Measures and Initiatives Drive Carbon Trading 79
6.8 Global Carbon Credits Standards 79
6.8.1 American Carbon Registry Standard 80
6.8.2 The Climate Action Reserve Protocols 81
6.8.3 The CarbonFix Standard 81
6.8.4 Chicago Climate Exchange Offsets Program 81
6.8.5 Climate, Community, and Biodiversity Standards 81
6.8.6 EPA Climate Leaders Offset Guidance 81
6.8.7 Greenhouse Gas Services Standard 81
6.8.8 The Gold Standard 82
6.8.9 Greenhouse Friendly 82
6.8.10 ISO 14064 Standards 82
6.8.11 Plan Vivo 82
6.8.12 Social Carbon Standard 82
6.8.13 TUV NORD Climate Change Standard and VER+ Standard 82
6.8.14 Voluntary Carbon Standard 83

7 Competitive Landscape of Emission Trading Companies 84
7.1 3 Degrees Incorporated 84
7.2 APX Incorporated 84
7.3 Baker & McKenzie 84
7.4 Blue Source 84
7.5 CantorCO2e 84
7.6 Climate Focus 85
7.7 Credit Suisse 85
7.8 EcoSecurities Group 85
7.9 Equator LLC 85
7.10 MGM International 85
7.11 Natsource 85
7.12 RNK Capital LLC 86
7.13 Sterling Planet, Incorporated 86
7.14 Tradition Financial Services/TFS Energy/TFS Green 86
7.15 TUV SUD America 86

8 Corporate Sustainability in a Changing Landscape 87
8.1 Carbon Exposure Risks 87
8.2 Carbon Exposure Opportunities 88
8.3 Carbon Emission Intensity by Sector 88
8.4 Companies are Expanding the Horizons of Sustainability Practices New Initiatives in Carbon Sustainability 89
8.4.1 Chevron Corporation Multifaceted Response to Climate Change 89
8.4.2 Walmart Stores, Inc. Sustainability Mandate throughout the Supply Chain 91
8.4.3 General Electric Co. Ecomagination Initiative, Revenue Opportunities from Climate Change Solutions 92

9 Appendix 94
9.1 About GBI Research 94
9.2 Abbreviations 94
9.3 Methodology 96
9.3.1 Coverage 97
9.3.2 Secondary Research 97
9.3.3 Primary Research 97
9.3.4 Expert Panel Validation 98
9.4 Contact Us 98
9.5 Disclaimer 98

List of Table:
Table 1: Global Exchanges in the Carbon Market, 2010 16
Table 2: Global Project Design Documents, 2010 22
Table 3: Global Accepted Determinations, 2010 23
Table 4: Global, List of Monitoring Reports, 2010 25
Table 5: Global, Verified Emission Reductions/Enhancements of Removals, 2009 26
Table 6: Global Verified Emission Reductions/Enhancements of Removals, 2010 27
Table 7: Global Carbon Trading Market, Value ($ bn), 20052009 29
Table 8: Global Carbon Trading Market, Volume Transactions, (MtCO2e), 20052009 30
Table 9: Global Allowances Market, Transactions Value, ($ m), 20052009 31
Table 10: The EU Transaction Value ($ bn), 20052009 32
Table 11: The EU Volume Transaction (MtCO2e) and Carbon Price ($/tCO2e) Shift, 20052009 33
Table 12: CCX Offsets Registered in MtCO2e, 2009 34
Table 13: New South Wales, Australia, Volume Transaction (MtCO2e) and Carbon Price ($/tCO2e) Shift, 20052009 35
Table 14: Global Project-based Market, Transactions Value, ($m), 20052009 36
Table 15: Global CDM Statistics, 2009 38
Table 16: Global Analysis by Project Type, 2010 39
Table 17: Global, Expected CERs Allocations by Top Host Countries, 2010 40
Table 18: Global, CERs Issued by Top Five Host Parties, 2010 42
Table 19: Global CDM Registered Project Analysis by Top Host Countries, 2010 43
Table 20: Global, Expected Registered Project Activities by AI and NAI Investor Countries, 2010 44
Table 21: Global, Registered Project Activities by Scale, 2010 45
Table 22: Registered Project Activities by Scale, 2010 45
Table 23: Global Distribution of Registered Project Activities by Scope, 2010 47
Table 24: Global Registered Projects by Region, 2010 48
Table 25: Asia Pacific Expected Emissions Reduction from CDM Projects by Country, 2010 48
Table 26: Rest of the World Expected Emissions Reduction from CDM Projects by Country, 2010 49
Table 27: Middle East and Africa Expected Emissions Reduction from CDM Projects by Country, 2010 50
Table 28: Latin America Expected Emissions Reduction from CDM Projects by Country, 2010 51
Table 29: Global Designated National Authorities for Annexure I and Non-Annexure I Countries, 2010 52
Table 30: Global Designated National Authorities for Non-Annexure I Countries, 2010 52
Table 31: Global Number of Parties and Designated National Authorities by Region, 2010 53
Table 32: Global Joint Implementation Market Volume Transaction (MtCO2e) and Carbon Price ($/tCO2e) Shift. 20052009 54
Table 33: Global Voluntary Market Volume Transaction (MtCO2e) and Carbon Price ($/tCO2e) Shift. 20052009 55
Table 34: Global Secondary Project-based Market Volume Transaction (MtCO2e) and Carbon Price ($/tCO2e) Shift. 20052009 56
Table 35: Global Carbon Trading Market Potential under Linear Growth Scenario, Value ($bn), 20102020 58
Table 36: Global Carbon Trading Market Potential under the Scaling Up Scenario, Value ($bn), 20102020 60
Table 37: Global Carbon Trading Market Potential under Global Reach Scenario, Value ($bn), 20102020 62
Table 38: Global Carbon Emissions by Country, 2007 69
Table 39: The US Implementation Timeline for AB32, 2006-2012 73
Table 40: Japan, Example of Voluntary Targets, 2009 77
Table 41: Japan CDM/JI Projects Japanese Government Approved, 2009 77
Table 42: Global, Various Carbon Standards Statistics, 2009 79
Table 43: Abbrevations 94

List of Charts:
Figure 1: Naturally Occurring Carbon Cycle, 2010 11
Figure 2: Global Carbon Trading Market Structure, 2009 14
Figure 3: Global Number of Joint Implementation Projects by Country, 2010 22
Figure 4: Global Carbon Trading Market, Value ($ bn), 20052009 29
Figure 5: Global Carbon Trading Market, Annual Volume Transactions, (MtCO2e), 20052009 30
Figure 6: Global Allowances Market, Transactions Value, ($ bn), 20052009 31
Figure 7: The EU Financial Value Transacted in Carbon Market ($ bn), 20052009 32
Figure 8: The EU Volume Transaction (MtCO2e) and Carbon Price ($/tCO2e) Shift., 2005 2009 33
Figure 9: New South Wales, Australia, Volume Transaction (MtCO2e) and Carbon Price ($/tCO2e) Shift, 20052009 35
Figure 10: Global Project-based Market, Transactions Value, ($ m), 20052009 36
Figure 11: Global Primary CDM Market, Annual Volume Transactions (MtCO2e), 20052009 37
Figure 12: Global Primary CDM and JI Buyers, 2008 38
Figure 13: Global CERs Allocations by Top Host Countries, 2010 40
Figure 14: Global CERs Issued by Top Five Host Parties, 2010 42
Figure 15: Global CDM Registered Project Analysis by Top Host Countries, 2010 43
Figure 16: Global Expected Registered Project Activities by AI and NAI Countries, 2010 44
Figure 17: Global Registered Project Activities by Scale, 2010 45
Figure 18: Global Distribution of Registered Project Activities by Scope, 2010 46
Figure 19: Global Registered Projects by Region, 2010 47
Figure 20: Global Designated National Authorities for Annexure I and Non-Annexure I Countries, 2010 52
Figure 21: Global Number of Parties and Designated National Authorities by Region, 2010 53
Figure 22: Global Joint Implementation Market Volume Transaction (MtCO2e) and Carbon Price ($/tCO2e) Shift. 20052009 54
Figure 23: Global Voluntary Market Volume Transaction (MtCO2e) and Carbon Price ($/tCO2e) Shift. 20052009 55
Figure 24: Global Secondary Project-based Market Volume Transaction (MtCO2e) and Carbon Price ($/tCO2e) Shift. 20052009 56
Figure 25: Global Carbon Trading Market Potential Scenario Based Assessment of the Market, Value ($bn), 20102020 57
Figure 26: Global Carbon Trading Market Potential under Linear Growth Scenario, Value ($bn), 20102020 58
Figure 27: Global Carbon Trading Market Potential under Scaling Up Scenario, Value ($bn), 20102020 60
Figure 28: Global Carbon Trading Market Potential under Global Reach Scenario, Value ($bn), 20102020 62
Figure 29: EU 27 Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector (%), 2006 65
Figure 30: EU 27 Carbon Dioxide Emission Allowances in Metric Tons per Year, 2008 66
Figure 31: Other EU 27 Carbon Dioxide Emission Allowances (Metric Tons per Year), 2008 67
Figure 32: The US Regional Annual CO2 Emissions Budget of RGGI (Short Tons), 2009-2018 72
Figure 33: Global Standard Utilization in Trading, 2008 83
Figure 34: Corporate Carbon Exposure, Risks and Opportunities 87
Figure 35: Global, Carbon Intensity by Sector, (g CO2 / $ turnover), 2009 88
Figure 36: GEs Ecomagination Revenues, Global, ($ bn), 20042008 93
Figure 37: GBI Research Methodology 96

 

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