Vose Software

Basic Risk Analysis Modeling


This course is designed to introduce people to risk analysis who have no prior knowledge of the subject.

Who should attend

The course gives an introduction to risk analysis modeling. The material is sufficient for people wishing to perform simple risk analyses and those who will make decisions based on their results.
Course content

Day 1

  • Introduction to risk and uncertainty
  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • A typical example of how risk analysis provides better estimates
  • An explanation of key distributions

Day 2

  • Modeling techniques with Monte Carlo simulation
  • Creating distributions from expert opinion
  • The importance and application of correlation
  • Using the results of a risk analysis to make better decisions
  • Fitting distributions to data
  • More example exercises

Day 3

  • The most common errors in risk modeling
  • Modeling time series
  • Fitting time series to data
  • Presenting risk analysis results: graphs, statistics, sensitivity analysis
  • More example exercises
  • Wrap up

Training material
All lecture notes are provided as PowerPoint files. A CD of these files is provided to each participant. Printed handouts are also provided. The CD also contains all model files produced for the course. Any extra models developed during the course are downloadable from a private page on this web site dedicated to the course.

All models are developed using Microsoft Excel and ModelRisk, but can be provided using a different Excel Monte Carlo add-in by prior arrangement. It is essential that all participants are familiar with Microsoft Excel and Microsoft Windows.

Teaching philosophy
All of Vose Software's courses aim to help the participants understand (rather than 'learn') risk analysis, which can only be achieved through a relaxed, informal and interactive environment, through plenty of examples and hands-on exercises where participants apply and adapt what they have learned.

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