Vose Software

Business Risk Modeling

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This course provides an in-depth review of business risk modeling techniques because it is an important step in protecting your business and focusing on the risks that really apply for your company. In summary: risk is a key aspect of business!

Who should attend
Analysts building models to evaluate the risk of business decisions in virtually any business environment.
Course content

Day 1

  • Introduction to risk analysis and management
  • Introduction to risk modelling and simulation
  • Building models and using the results - some simple examples
  • Presenting, interpreting and using risk analysis results
  • Healthy cynicism

Day 2

  • Some basic but critical probability ideas
  • Probability distributions: principles and uses
  • Time series models: principles and uses
  • Correlation structures: principles and uses
  • Keeping it simple

Day 3

  • Using data: analysing the data, fitting models, being realistic
  • Using expert estimates: asking the right questions, biases, corrections, etc
  • Common modelling mistakes
  • Wrap up

Training material
All lecture notes are provided as PowerPoint files. A CD of these files is provided to each participant. Printed handouts are also provided. The CD also contains all model files produced for the course. Any extra models developed during the course are downloadable from a private page on this web site dedicated to the course.

Prerequisites
All models are developed using Microsoft Excel and ModelRisk, but can be provided using a different Excel Monte Carlo add-in by prior arrangement. It is essential that all participants are familiar with Microsoft Excel and Microsoft Windows.

Teaching philosophy
All of Vose Software's courses aim to help the participants understand (rather than 'learn') risk analysis, which can only be achieved through a relaxed, informal and interactive environment, through plenty of examples and hands-on exercises where participants apply and adapt what they have learned.

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