In a Future of Extremes, Southeastern States Must Have Water Management Policies
Introduction
Climate change is expected to have an impact on every type of weather phenomenon that occurs on Earth. The nature and magnitude of the impact varies with the location on the planet and the type of weather in question, and coupled climate-weather models, have different degrees of uncertainty about different types of weather (though these models are dramatically improving in this cutting-edge field, and confidence is increasing among scientists in their weather predictions). However, climate scientists and resilience planners have long had a very high degree of confidence regarding extremes of precipitation. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of both extremely wet and extremely dry periods. There is evidence that this effect is already occurring.
This change in precipitation patterns is set to have a very disruptive effect—both on the economy and the natural environment—on regions that are accustomed to semi-regular rainfall in manageable amounts. Agriculture and tourism, in particular, are disrupted when the precipitation patterns shift from a steady, regular flow of rain events to a drastic pendulum swing between severe drought and severe flooding. Natural ecosystems are also negatively impacted, especially in drought. The loss of plant life in a period of prolonged, extreme drought can even create a feedback that worsens the drought: Leafy plants release moisture into the air through evapotranspiration, and if the leaves desiccate in a drought, this source of moisture also dries up. The roots of long-lived plants such as trees will also burrow deep into soil to reach groundwater, further depleting the supply.
The impacts of drought are particularly devastating in areas that are not developed with limited water supplies in mind. Locations in the American Southwest have long had a dry or even desert climate, and these locations largely have robust water conservation and water management policies at the state and local level that acknowledge their climate reality. However, for states in the eastern United States, drought has been rare, and as a result, many of them do not have useful water policies—or, sometimes, any at all. In an era in which much climate resiliency work is likely to occur at the state level, it is important for states at increased risk of drought to devise policies that will mitigate the risk.
Drought Risk for the American Southeast
One such region is the American Southeast. The usual flow of large air masses and the development of low pressure systems has historically produced a climate in which regular, manageable rainfall could be expected three out of four seasons, with meteorological autumn (September through November) being the driest period. However, climate change has already begun to produce a shift in precipitation patterns in this region. There has not been a significant change in average annual precipitation, but this is because the frequency of both severe flooding and severe drought events has increased over the past 10 years, as expected under a changed climate.
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