Power & Energy Analytic Resources, Inc.
- Home
- Companies & Suppliers
- Power & Energy Analytic Resources, Inc.
- Downloads
- AB 32 Allowance Holdings Limits ...
AB 32 Allowance Holdings Limits Calculator.xlsx
DATA Cap-and-Trade Holding Limits California GHG Allowance Calculations DATA ENTRY WORKSHEET for Last modified: 14-Feb-13 VHC, Orinda, CA Base case 2017 0.39 2016 0.10 § 95920. Trading. Name of company: Gold River Look at RESULTS & GRAPHS worksheets first. PEAR, Inc. Arlington, VA HL gone2016 2017 0 2016 0 Enter total company annual emissions in columns F & G Hypothetical Example Limits for General Holding + Compliance Account Total Enter (UOG + covered purchases) emissions percentage in column G CPUC Emission Forecast Multiplier ARB Holding Current + Prior Check for Advance Allowances End-of-Year Instructions are below: Enter data only in green shaded cells multiplies forecasted emissions in each California GHG ARB Holding Limit Total Allowances CCAs in Gen'l Holding Limit in General Total Allowances Enter data only in green shaded cells DO NOT CHANGE ANY CELLS OTHER THAN THOSE FOR DATA ENTRY: year per D. 12-04-046 Appendix 1 Annual Emissions or CA Carbon Limit plus E.O.Y. in Compliance Holding Violations Holding Account in General TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE TRUE If this hypothetical company is NOT an IOU, enter: NOTIOU in cell B10 Million Tonnes CO2e Percent Emissions Compliance Allowance (CCA) (has No Limited ARB Holding Account Account for Current and End-of-Year Holding Account Annual Transfer of CCAs to Compliance Account Used to Calculate Limited Exemption & Holding Limits, subject to ARB Holding Limits and CPUC Purchase Limits, as applicable Otherwise leave blank ====> Annual Total Electric + Fuel Obligation for Obligation Purchases Limited Exemptions Limit E-O-Y End-of-Year Prior Year (all Advance are (Prior + Current cols Fraction of Each Year's Emissions Compliance Obligation to Transfer in the Designated Years after the Emissions Year, assuming sufficient purchases to cover the transfers and compliance with the ARB requirement to transfer a minimum of 30% of the immediate Prior Year's (i.e., last year's) Emissions. or enter: IOU in cell B9 IOU Emissions Forecast UOG+Electric EDU All Vintages Exemptions) by Budget Year for Each Vintage by Budget Year by Budget Year Vintage in Gen'l account) + Advance) ====> X & Y: Prior Emissions Year: ARB Holding limits and allowed purchases will be maximized if 2011 and 2012 L.E. emissions are fully covered in 2013, then 2013 emissions in 2014, etc. by entering 1.0 in cells N13, O13, P14, Q15, R16, etc. Other transfers may be entered but must sum to 1.0 by the compliance year. CPUC Emission Forecast Multiplier > or = 1.0 Year CP1 scope Added in CP2 CP2 + 3 scope Compliance Year (million tonnes) by Budget Year Current + Prior Advance / Future (million Tonnes) Current + Prior Allowances (million tonnes) (million tonnes) CCA Transfer Year: E 2011 2012 E2013 2014 Emissions Year: CCAs to try to transfer Covered Allowances Purchased Cost of Allowance Purchases as of January 1, 2013 CPUC 2 std dev multiplier based on IMHR applies for all years. 2011 25.00 25.00 65.00% 2011 Current Year Year CCAs Year CCAs Year CCAs to Compliance Account Electric LE Fuel LE E2013 E2014 E2015 E2016 E2017 E2018 E2019 E2020 by EOYr Cumulative Emissions Transferred this Year to Nominal $ Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 suggested range from 1.2 to 1.3 1.2 2012 23.75 23.75 65.00% 2012 Do Not Enter Data or Alter Cells in this Rectangle Do Not Alter Any Cells Not Shaded Green in CALC Worksheet 2013 2011 GHG 0.50 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. in this Year Compliance Acct Year (Million $) This Case Base Case Low Case DATA ENTRY: Only enter data in these cells: 2013 22.56 22.56 65.00% 2013 14.67 21.00 5.95 21.79 N.A. 15.84 3.21 O.K. w ARB 8.00 11.21 2013 2012GHG 0.50 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 15.84 15.84 14.67 15.84 2013 Historical and Forecast Emissions by Year 2014 22.18 22.18 65.00% 2014 14.41 13.50 5.87 26.11 N.A. 20.24 5.81 O.K. w ARB 14.50 20.31 2014 2013FuelGHG 1.00 0.30 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 4.40 20.24 14.41 4.40 2014 for Emissions in Compliance Period 1 Scope: 2015 21.85 21.85 65.00% 2015 14.20 19.50 11.74 27.58 11.74 15.84 3.12 O.K. w ARB 12.00 15.12 2015 2014FuelGHG 1.00 0.70 1.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 24.68 44.93 14.20 24.68 2015 See GHG ALLOWANCE COSTS worksheet Cells F11 to F23 2016 20.59 20.59 65.00% 2016 13.38 10.50 11.44 34.71 11.44 23.27 4.69 O.K. w ARB 13.50 18.19 2016 0.10 N.A. N.A. 0.30 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 7.43 52.36 13.38 7.43 2016 for Emissions Added in Compliance Period 2 2017 19.97 19.97 65.00% 2017 12.98 16.00 11.13 42.54 11.13 31.41 11.06 O.K. w ARB 15.00 26.06 2017 0.13 N.A. N.A. 0.30 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 8.13 60.49 12.98 8.13 2017 Cells G13 to G23 2018 19.38 19.38 65.00% 2018 12.59 23.00 10.83 33.96 10.83 23.13 2.76 O.K. w ARB 14.00 16.76 2018 N.A. N.A. 0.70 0.70 1.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. 32.29 92.79 12.59 32.29 2018 California GHG Allowance Purchases 2019 18.79 18.79 65.00% 2019 12.22 6.90 10.53 37.44 10.53 26.91 7.99 O.K. w ARB 11.90 19.89 2019 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.30 N.A. N.A. 3.78 96.56 12.22 3.78 2019 Cells B30 to K39, Avoid N.A., Check Limits 2020 18.23 18.23 65.00% 2020 11.85 3.50 10.23 42.39 10.23 32.16 9.24 O.K. w ARB 8.90 18.14 2020 0.05 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.30 N.A. 5.25 101.81 11.85 5.25 2020 Allowance Transfers: Gen'l Holding to Compliance Account 2021 18.15 18.15 65.00% 2021 11.80 9.00 9.93 36.23 9.93 17.64 0.00 O.K. w ARB 2021 0.05 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.70 0.70 1.00 30.80 132.61 22.14 2021 Cells X12 to AG21, Avoid N.A., Check X24,Y24, X23-AG23 2022 18.40 18.40 65.00% 2022 11.96 2022 NPV 2013 CHECK LIMITS and TRANSFER VIOLATIONS 2023 18.05 18.05 65.00% 2023 11.73 2023 See R55 See V55 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 AI to CALC D77-D85 Cost of Allowance Purchases as of January 1, 2013 Watch E24-E25, F24, L31-L38, D58-K67, B68-K68, O30-O38, O.K. O.K. 106.31 119.95 see cells M58-M65 for Total Allowances Total CCAs 26.30 0.00 14.67 14.41 14.20 13.38 12.98 12.59 12.22 11.85 120.76 120.76 106.31 Nominal $ Case 4 Case 5 Case 6 X24, Y24 & X23 to AG 23, C42, E43, H43, & R55, V55 CHECK the HOLDING ACCT BALANCE AND LIMITS CAREFULLY as per DATA cells A25 & A26 13.64 CPUC IOU IF Company is held in Gen'l Holding Acct each Year to try to transfer to 31.69 0.00 Z23 to AG 23 should all = 1.0. Use X12-X21 and Y14-Y21 to build Limited Exemptions. 132.61 106.31 Year (Million $) Base Case Low CCA Price High CCA Price to check for violations or to buy or transfer more allowances. Net California Carbon Allowances Acquired in Each Year by Vintage ARB Holding Purchase Limit an IOU, look at Ratio Tradable Compliance Acct by vintage Do Not Exceed Historical Verified Emissions Transfers will be deferred to the next year, 2020 Bank= 2013 (Million Tonnes) California GHG Allowance Vintage Year: (Million Tonnes) Limit Test Total CCAs This Year this column and B11. With ref to cells X12 to X21 and Y12 to Y21, the fractions in these cells Current Allowances Ratio Genl/Total Ensure x24 or = 0.3 in the year following the Emissions Year. Check cells L31 to L38, D58 to K67 and B68 to K68 for ARB Holding Limit Violations Adjust purchases Assumed by Oct 1. Current & Prior Current or Prior Year lead to LE additions from these prior years that exceed and transferred into the Compliance Acct. Total emissions transferred must not exceed allowable verified emissions 21.79 O.K. Check cells O30 to O38 for CPUC Purchase Limit Violations in cells B30 to K39 of each year. Current & Prior Yr Year - L.E.+ Purchases Needed 31.69 for the electric sector and 0.00 for fuels Useful in Compliance Period if in Compl Acct 36.05 O.K. 47.47 O.K. 42.40 Year CCAs Held in Year Holding Limits Negative # is required The fractions now entered in columns N and O will result in LE additions of For fuels emissions in 2013 and 2014 similar CCA Obligation in ComPeriod 29.08 40.57 36.66 to meet Holding Limit 12.50 in 2013 0.00 in 2015 considerations apply to fractions entered in column O. ~Ratio of Bank to CP Need 0.66 0.90 0.70 0.85 1.29 1.03 1.12 1.13 N.A. 2013 19.05 21.79 -2.74 -2.74 11.875 in 2013 0.00 in 2015 2013/2014 column shows fraction to L.E. from end 2013 end 2014 end 2015 end 2016 end 2017 end 2018 end 2019 end 2020 2014 26.05 26.11 -0.06 -0.06 0 in 2014 0.00 in 2016 gas/fuel emissions that can contribute starting by Nov 1, 2015: 1.24 by Nov 1, 2018: 1.17 by Nov 1, 2021: 1.16 2015 18.97 27.58 -8.61 -8.61 0 in 2015 0.00 in 2017 on 1/01/2015 for 2013 emissions and 2016 27.97 34.71 -6.74 -6.74 3.16875 in 2016 0.00 in 2018 10/01/2015 for 2014 fuel emissions. No Advance / Future CCAs are (Millions of Nominal Dollars) Net Present Value of Allowance Acquisition thru 2020 as of 1/1/2013 2017 42.47 42.54 -0.08 -0.08 4.119375 in 2017 0.00 in 2019 After 2016 the fraction applies to sum of put in Compliance Account NPV 2013 thru 2020 = $2,510 $2,558 $1,679 $4,164 $4,901 2018 25.90 33.96 -8.07 -8.07 0 in 2018 0.00 in 2020 eligible emissions from 2013 + 2014. Advance Holding Limit Applies by Yr for each Advance Vintage NPV as 1/01/2013 This Case Base Case Low Case Stress Case 1 Stress Case 2 2019 34.90 37.44 -2.55 -2.55 0 in 2019 0.00 in 2021 Check the resulting additions to LE in columns P and T in DATA worksheet Holding Limit for Advance CCAs These cases are for alternative CA GHG Allowance Price Trajectories applied to above purchases 2020 41.40 42.39 -0.99 -0.99 1.584375 in 2020 0.00 in 2022 to see if the tons contributed in each year are as intended. These cells are linked to purchases above in corresponding cells. If "ARB violation" shows below, then reduce purchases of future vintage allowances. Check row 69. 2021 17.64 36.23 -18.59 -18.59 33.25 Total Permanent LE Additions to 0.00 Total Permanent Check messages in P52 and T52 after entering fractions in DO NOT ENTER DATA in this matrix Advance / Future CCAs Held in Each Year by Vintage Total Advance CCAs Electric Sector LE from 2011 & 2012 Fuels Sector LE from 2013 & 2014 columns X and Y in DATA worksheet. CCA Vintage Year: (Million Tonnes) Acquired in Each Total Advance Total Current Total Allowances Total Allowances REDO FRACTIONS in COLUMN X COLUMN Y is OK Year: v2013 v2014 v2015 v2016 v2017 v2018 v2019 v2020 v2021 v2022 Budget Year CCAs Held in Year CCAs in Gen'l in General Holding in Gen'l + Compliance so that G50 is < or = to G39 so that K50 is < or = to K39 Holding Acct Account each Year Account by Year Total Surrendered Cumulative Purchased Total Purchased Each Year Missing Before 2013 N.A. N.A. 2.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2.00 2.00 0.00 2.00 Before 2013 2.00 6.05 6.05 0.00 2013 N.A. 3.00 3.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 6.00 8.00 3.21 11.21 2013 27.05 27.05 21.00 0.00 2014 3.00 2.00 1.50 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 6.50 14.50 5.81 20.31 2014 40.55 40.55 13.50 0.00 2015 2.00 1.00 2.50 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 5.50 12.00 3.12 15.12 2015 30.97 29.08 60.05 19.50 0.00 2016 4.00 3.50 1.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. 8.50 13.50 4.69 18.19 2016 41.47 70.55 10.50 0.00 2017 4.00 2.00 2.00 N.A. N.A. 8.00 15.00 11.06 26.06 2017 57.47 86.55 16.00 0.00 2018 5.00 2.00 2.00 N.A. 9.00 14.00 2.76 16.76 2018 39.90 40.57 109.55 23.00 0.00 2019 2.00 1.90 2.00 5.90 11.90 7.99 19.89 2019 46.80 116.45 6.90 0.00 2020 1.00 2.00 3.00 8.90 9.24 18.14 2020 50.30 119.95 3.50 0.00 2021 1.00 1.00 5.00 2021 36.66 Future CCAs by Vintage 0.000 0.000 8.000 7.000 6.500 10.000 8.000 6.000 4.900 5.000 Total Curnt + Prior Total Allowances Total Current + Prior Check HA Calcs Advance / Future Vintage CCAs N.A. N.A. 11.738 11.435 11.135 10.832 10.533 10.230 9.930 9.630 Before 2013 4.05 in General Holding in Holding Account Difference in HA Holding Limit by Vintage Year 2013 19.05 11.21 3.21 0.00 Not by Calendar Year 2014 7.00 20.31 5.81 0.00 2015 14.00 15.12 3.12 0.00 2016 2.00 18.19 4.69 0.00 See CA GHG PRICES & COSTS DO NOT ENTER DATA IN PRICE MATRIX BELOW - See CA GHG PRICES AND COSTS worksheet 2017 8.00 26.06 11.06 0.00 worksheet Average Price Paid for Net California Carbon Allowances Acquired ($/Tonne) 2018 14.00 16.76 2.76 0.00 CCA Acquisition CCA Vintage Year: (Million Tonnes) 2019 1.00 19.89 7.99 0.00 Year: v2013 v2014 v2015 v2016 v2017 v2018 v2019 v2020 v2021 v2022 2020 0.50 18.14 9.24 0.00 Before 2013 10.50 N.A. 10.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2013 15.50 N.A. 18.00 20.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2014 20.00 20.00 25.00 20.29 23.40 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2015 31.00 31.00 31.00 22.52 25.97 29.98 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2016 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 28.83 33.28 35.10 N.A. N.A. N.A. 2017 32.00 32.00 32.00 32.00 32.00 36.94 38.96 36.56 N.A. N.A. 2018 41.00 41.00 41.00 41.00 41.00 41.00 43.24 40.58 36.56 N.A. 2019 48.00 48.00 48.00 48.00 48.00 48.00 48.00 45.05 40.58 40.58 2020 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 45.05 45.05 2021 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 Avg. Price by VintageRESULTS Cap-and-Trade Holding Limits (§ 95920. Trading)- Gold River PEAR-VHC Calculations of CA GHG Allowance Purchases Limits for General Holding + Compliance Account Portfolio and Management of General Holding and Compliance Accounts ARB Holding Limits (million tonnes) Spreadsheet For Current & Prior Holding Limit plus Holding Limit Base Scenario Total Current & Prior Total Advance Total Current+Prior Total Allowances Allowances Allowances Total Allowances Total Allowances Holding Limit Amount CPUC IOU IF Company is Results Year Allowances Limited Exemptions Advance / Future GHG tonnes Year CCAs Acquired Total Advance CCAs Total Allowances Net Costs of CCAs Held in Year Year CCAs in Gen'l Ratio of Current + Prior Ratio of Advance Ratio of EOY in General Holding Transferred to Surrendered in Compliance Held in Compl + + Lmtd Exempt Below Purchase Limit an IOU, look at for this Case in General Holding in Compliance Acct Year CCAs by Annual Emissions in this Budget Year* Acquired in Each Acquired in Each CA GHG Allowance (All Advance CCAs Are Holding Acct CCAs in Gen'l H Acct CCAs in Gen'l H Acct Banked Allowances Account each Year Compliance from Compliance Account at EOY Holding Acct - All Allowances for ARB Limit Total CCAs This Year this column. & Compliance Accts for Current + Prior Vintage Compliance (except pre-2013) Budget Year Budget Year Purchases in Gen'l Holding Acct) (End-of-Year) to Total CCAs Held to Total CCAs Held Good by End of that Account Account Current & Prior Acquired Each Including Offsets This year's Year for each Budget Year Year CCAs Not by Budget Year Obligation Pre-2013 Purchases (Million Nominal $) (million tonnes) Compliance Period Years Held at EOY (million tonnes) Year purchases are: (million tonnes) (million tonnes) (million tonnes) (million tonnes) 4.05 2.00 6.05 62.52 2.00 to Obligation in CP* Before 2013 6.05 20.89 O.K. w CPUC 2013 5.95 21.79 N.A. 14.67 15.00 6.00 21.00 346.50 8.00 3.21 0.119 0.296 0.66 11.21 15.84 0.00 15.84 27.05 O.K. w ARB 2.74 2013 21.00 33.96 O.K. w CPUC 2014 5.87 26.11 N.A. 14.41 7.00 6.50 13.50 290.68 14.50 5.81 0.143 0.358 0.90 20.31 4.40 0.00 20.24 40.55 O.K. w ARB 0.06 2014 13.50 32.68 O.K. w CPUC 2015 11.74 27.58 11.74 14.20 14.00 5.50 19.50 579.96 12.00 3.12 0.101 0.388 0.70 15.12 24.68 29.08 15.84 30.97 O.K. w ARB 8.61 2015 19.50 38.97 O.K. w CPUC 2016 11.44 34.71 11.44 13.38 2.00 8.50 10.50 316.88 13.50 4.69 0.113 0.326 0.85 18.19 7.43 0.00 23.27 41.47 O.K. w ARB 6.74 2016 10.50 29.62 O.K. w CPUC 2017 11.13 42.54 11.13 12.98 8.00 8.00 16.00 554.78 15.00 11.06 0.192 0.261 1.29 26.06 8.13 0.00 31.41 57.47 O.K. w ARB 0.08 2017 16.00 32.98 O.K. w CPUC 2018 10.83 33.96 10.83 12.59 14.00 9.00 23.00 944.50 14.00 2.76 0.069 0.351 1.03 16.76 32.29 40.57 23.13 39.90 O.K. w ARB 8.07 2018 23.00 30.53 O.K. w CPUC 2019 10.53 37.44 10.53 12.22 1.00 5.90 6.90 296.36 11.90 7.99 0.171 0.254 1.12 19.89 3.78 0.00 26.91 46.80 O.K. w ARB 2.55 2019 6.90 18.42 O.K. w CPUC 2020 10.23 42.39 10.23 11.85 0.50 3.00 3.50 160.14 8.90 9.24 0.184 0.177 1.13 18.14 5.25 0.00 32.16 50.30 O.K. w ARB 0.99 2020 3.50 21.18 O.K. w CPUC *all completed by Oct 1. NPV 2013 thru 2020 *Only if transferred to 22.14 36.66 The INPUT DATA and locations are shown in Rows 20 to 82, along with calculated results NPV as of 1/01/2013 $2,510.19 Compliance Account Input Emissions Data ~Ratio of Total Bank to CP Need by Nov 1, 2015: 1.24 by Nov 1, 2018: 1.17 by Nov 1, 2021: 1.16 in DATA cells F11 to G23 cells J11 to J23 in DATA Data Entry in DATA, cells X12 to AG21 Million Tonnes CO2e Percent Emissions Annual Transfer of CCAs to Compliance Account Used to Calculate Limited Exemption & Holding Limits, subject to ARB Holding Limits and CPUC Purchase Limits, as applicable Annual Total Electric + Fuel Obligation for Fraction of Each Year's Emissions Compliance Obligation to Transfer in the Designated Years after the Emissions Year, assuming sufficient purchases to cover the transfers and compliance with the ARB requirement to transfer a minimum of 30% of the immediate Prior Year's (i.e., last year's) Emissions. Emissions Forecast UOG+Electric EDU ====> Prior Emissions Year: ARB Holding limits and allowed purchases will be maximized if 2011 and 2012 L.E. emissions are fully covered in 2013, then 2013 emissions in 2014, etc. by entering 1.0 in cells N13, O13, P14, Q15, R16, etc., in worksheet DATA. Other transfers may be entered but must sum to 1.0 by the compliance year. Year CP1 scope Added in CP2 CP2 + 3 scope Compliance CCA Transfer Year: E 2011 2012 E2013 2014 Emissions Year: CCAs to try to transfer 2011 25.00 25.00 65.00% to Compliance Account Electric LE Fuel LE E2013 E2014 E2015 E2016 E2017 E2018 E2019 E2020 by EOYr 2012 23.75 23.75 65.00% 2013 2011 GHG 0.50 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. in this Year 2013 22.56 0.00 22.56 65.00% 2013 2012GHG 0.50 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 15.84 2014 22.18 0.00 22.18 65.00% 2014 2013FuelGHG 0.00 1.00 0.30 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 4.40 2015 21.85 0.00 21.85 65.00% 2015 2014FuelGHG 0.00 1.00 0.70 1.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 24.68 2016 20.59 0.00 20.59 65.00% 2016 0.10 0.00 N.A. N.A. 0.30 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 7.43 2017 19.97 0.00 19.97 65.00% 2017 0.13 0.00 N.A. N.A. 0.00 0.30 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 8.13 2018 19.38 0.00 19.38 65.00% 2018 0.00 0.00 N.A. N.A. 0.70 0.70 1.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. 32.29 2019 18.79 0.00 18.79 65.00% 2019 0.00 0.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.30 N.A. N.A. 3.78 2020 18.23 0.00 18.23 65.00% 2020 0.05 0.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.00 0.30 N.A. 5.25 2021 18.15 0.00 18.15 65.00% 2021 0.05 0.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.70 0.70 1.00 30.80 2022 18.40 0.00 18.40 65.00% 2022 0.00 2023 18.05 0.00 18.05 65.00% 2023 See R55, V55 in DATA 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 AI to CALC D77-D85 Total CCAs 26.30 0.00 14.67 14.41 14.20 13.38 12.98 12.59 12.22 11.85 to try to transfer to 31.69 0.00 Z23 to AG 23 should all = 1.0. Use X12-X21 and Y14-Y21 to build Limited Exemptions. 132.61 Compliance Acct by vintage Do Not Exceed Historical Verified Emissions Transfers will be deferred to the next year, if insufficient allowances are available in the Gen'l Holding Account Data Entered in GHG ALLOWANCE COSTS cells E8 to N17 Name of this case: This Case From GHG ALLOWANCE COSTS (million tonnes) Allowance Prices w Purchases from DATA worksheet Average Price Paid for Net California Carbon Allowances Acquired (Nominal $/Tonne) Net Costs of California Carbon Allowances Acquired in Each Year by Vintage CCA Acquisition CCA Vintage Year: (Million Tonnes) Allowance Vintage Year: (Million Current $) CA GHG Allowance Year: v2013 v2014 v2015 v2016 v2017 v2018 v2019 v2020 v2021 v2022 GHG Allowance v2013 v2014 v2015 v2016 v2017 v2018 v2019 v2020 v2021 v2022 Costs thru 2020 Acquisition Year: (million nominal $) Before 2013 $10.50 N.A. $10.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. Before 2013 42.52 N.A. 20.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. $62.52 2013 $15.50 N.A. $18.00 $20.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. In 2013 232.50 N.A. 54.00 60.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. $346.50 2014 $20.00 $20.00 $25.00 $20.29 $23.40 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2014 0.00 140.00 75.00 40.58 35.10 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. $290.68 2015 $31.00 $31.00 $31.00 $22.52 $25.97 $29.98 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2015 0.00 310.00 124.00 45.05 25.97 74.95 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. $579.96 2016 $25.00 $25.00 $25.00 $25.00 $28.83 $33.28 $35.10 N.A. N.A. N.A. 2016 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 115.32 116.47 35.10 N.A. N.A. N.A. $316.88 2017 $32.00 $32.00 $32.00 $32.00 $32.00 $36.94 $38.96 $36.56 N.A. N.A. 2017 0.00 0.00 0.00 64.00 192.00 147.75 77.92 73.12 N.A. N.A. $554.78 2018 $41.00 $41.00 $41.00 $41.00 $41.00 $41.00 $43.24 $40.58 $36.56 N.A. 2018 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 205.00 369.00 216.22 81.16 73.12 N.A. $944.50 2019 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $45.05 $40.58 $40.58 2019 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 48.00 90.09 77.10 81.16 $296.36 2020 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $45.05 $45.05 2020 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.00 45.05 90.09 $160.14 2021 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 2021 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 350.00 50.00 $450.00 Total Costs by Vintage $275.02 $450.00 $273.00 $259.63 $573.38 $708.16 $377.23 $319.37 $545.27 $221.25 $3,552.32 NPV 2013 thru 2020 = $2,510.19 See also cells B9 and B12 in DATA worksheet NPV as 1/01/2013 From GHG ALLOWANCE COSTS worksheet, cells E8 to N17 CA GHG Allowance Acquistions by Year & Vintage As Entered in DATA worksheet Cells B30 to K39 Net California Carbon Allowances Acquired in Each Year by Vintage Nominal $ Projected Costs of Allowance Purchases with NPV as of January 1, 2013 (Million Tonnes) Allowance Vintage Year CA GHG Allowance (million $) Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 4 Case 5 GHG Allowance v2013 v2014 v2015 v2016 v2017 v2018 v2019 v2020 v2021 v2022 Purchases thru 2020 Year This Case Base Case Low Case Stress Case 1 Stress Case 2 Acquisition Year: (million tonnes) Before 2013 $62.5 $87.9 $65.4 $124.6 $141.9 Before 2013 4.05 N.A. 2.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 6.050 2013 $346.5 $362.8 $269.7 $604.7 $725.8 In 2013 15.00 N.A. 3.00 3.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 21.000 2014 $290.7 $299.5 $207.1 $532.4 $616.2 2014 0.00 7.00 3.00 2.00 1.50 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 13.500 2015 $580.0 $580.0 $345.5 $978.6 $1,147.5 2015 0.00 10.00 4.00 2.00 1.00 2.50 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 19.500 2016 $316.9 $316.9 $227.7 $538.8 $622.6 2016 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 3.50 1.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. 10.500 2017 $554.8 $554.8 $378.5 $918.6 $1,053.5 2017 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 2.00 N.A. N.A. 16.000 2018 $944.5 $944.5 $574.9 $1,453.5 $1,719.5 2018 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 9.00 5.00 2.00 2.00 N.A. 23.000 2019 $296.4 $296.4 $175.7 $438.9 $545.8 2019 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 1.90 2.00 6.900 2020 $160.1 $160.1 $98.7 $239.2 $300.0 2020 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 1.00 2.00 3.500 2021 $450.0 $450.0 $272.0 $675.0 $839.0 2021 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 7.00 1.00 9.000 NPV 2013 thru 2020 $2,510.2 $2,558.0 $1,679.3 $4,163.6 $4,900.9 Total Allowances 19.05 17.00 12.00 11.00 17.50 19.00 9.00 7.50 11.90 5.00 119.950 NPV as 1/01/2013 Million $ Bought by Vintage thru 2021 = 128.950 Discount Rate for NPV: 8.50%GHG ALLOWANCE COSTS These cases are for alternative CA GHG Allowance Price Trajectories applied to the purchases shown in cells Q8 to Z17 in this worksheet. Allowance Prices and NPV calculations The only data to be entered in this worksheet are in green shaded cells B22 and in the range E8 to N17. Enter Data Only in Green shaded cells Name of this case: This Case This Case As Entered in DATA worksheet Cells B30 to K39 Average Price Paid for Net California Carbon Allowances Acquired (Nominal $/Tonne) Net California Carbon Allowances Acquired in Each Year by Vintage CCA Acquisition CCA Vintage Year: (Million Tonnes) (Million Tonnes) Allowance Vintage Year CA GHG Allowance Year: v2013 v2014 v2015 v2016 v2017 v2018 v2019 v2020 v2021 v2022 GHG Allowance v2013 v2014 v2015 v2016 v2017 v2018 v2019 v2020 v2021 v2022 Purchases thru 2020 Acquisition Year: (million tonnes) Enter Prices Only Before 2013 $10.50 N.A. $10.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. Before 2013 4.05 N.A. 2.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 6.050 in Green Shaded Cells 2013 $15.50 N.A. $18.00 $20.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. In 2013 15.00 N.A. 3.00 3.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 21.000 (Nominal $/tonne) 2014 $20.00 $20.00 $25.00 $20.29 $23.40 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2014 0.00 7.00 3.00 2.00 1.50 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 13.500 2015 $31.00 $31.00 $31.00 $22.52 $25.97 $29.98 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2015 0.00 10.00 4.00 2.00 1.00 2.50 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 19.500 2016 $25.00 $25.00 $25.00 $25.00 $28.83 $33.28 $35.10 N.A. N.A. N.A. 2016 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 3.50 1.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. 10.500 2017 $32.00 $32.00 $32.00 $32.00 $32.00 $36.94 $38.96 $36.56 N.A. N.A. 2017 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 2.00 N.A. N.A. 16.000 2018 $41.00 $41.00 $41.00 $41.00 $41.00 $41.00 $43.24 $40.58 $36.56 N.A. 2018 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 9.00 5.00 2.00 2.00 N.A. 23.000 2019 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $45.05 $40.58 $40.58 2019 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 1.90 2.00 6.900 2020 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $45.05 $45.05 2020 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 1.00 2.00 3.500 2021 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 2021 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 7.00 1.00 9.000 Total Bought by Vintage 19.05 17.00 12.00 11.00 17.50 19.00 9.00 7.50 11.90 5.00 119.950 thru 2021 = 128.950 Nominal $ Projected Costs of Allowance Purchases with NPV thru 2020 as of January 1, 2013 This Case Allowance Prices w Purchases from DATA worksheet Discount Rate for NPV: (million $) Case 1 Case 2 Case 3 Case 4 Case 5 Average of Five Net Costs of California Carbon Allowances Acquired in Each Year by Vintage 8.50% Year This Case Base Case Low Case Stress Case 1 Stress Case 2 Cases' Annual Costs Allowance Vintage Year: (Million Current $) CA GHG Allowance Before 2013 $62.5 $87.9 $65.4 $124.6 $141.9 $96.4 GHG Allowance v2013 v2014 v2015 v2016 v2017 v2018 v2019 v2020 v2021 v2022 Costs thru 2020 2013 $346.5 $362.8 $269.7 $604.7 $725.8 $461.9 Acquisition Year: (million nominal $) 2014 $290.7 $299.5 $207.1 $532.4 $616.2 $389.2 Before 2013 42.52 N.A. 20.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. $62.52 2015 $580.0 $580.0 $345.5 $978.6 $1,147.5 $726.3 In 2013 232.50 N.A. 54.00 60.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. $346.50 2016 $316.9 $316.9 $227.7 $538.8 $622.6 $404.6 2014 0.00 140.00 75.00 40.58 35.10 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. $290.68 2017 $554.8 $554.8 $378.5 $918.6 $1,053.5 $692.0 2015 0.00 310.00 124.00 45.05 25.97 74.95 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. $579.96 2018 $944.5 $944.5 $574.9 $1,453.5 $1,719.5 $1,127.4 2016 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 115.32 116.47 35.10 N.A. N.A. N.A. $316.88 2019 $296.4 $296.4 $175.7 $438.9 $545.8 $350.6 2017 0.00 0.00 0.00 64.00 192.00 147.75 77.92 73.12 N.A. N.A. $554.78 2020 $160.1 $160.1 $98.7 $239.2 $300.0 $191.6 2018 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 205.00 369.00 216.22 81.16 73.12 N.A. $944.50 2021 $450.0 $450.0 $272.0 $675.0 $839.0 $537.2 2019 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 48.00 90.09 77.10 81.16 $296.36 NPV 2013 thru 2020 $2,510.2 $2,558.0 $1,679.3 $4,163.6 $4,900.9 $3,162.4 2020 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.00 45.05 90.09 $160.14 NPV as 1/01/2013 Million $ 2021 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 350.00 50.00 $450.00 Total Costs by Vintage $275.02 $450.00 $273.00 $259.63 $573.38 $708.16 $377.23 $319.37 $545.27 $221.25 $3,552.32 These Cases all apply prices from the CCA PRICES worksheet to the input allowance purchases from the DATA worksheet NPV 2013 thru 2020 = $2,510.19 DO NOT ENTER PRICES IN THE Four PRICE MATRICES BELOW. PRICE INPUTS ARE IN worksheet: CCA Prices NPV as 1/01/2013 Base Case Allowance Prices Base Case Allowance Prices w Purchases from DATA worksheet Average Price Paid for Net California Carbon Allowances Acquired (Nominal $/Tonne) Net Costs of California Carbon Allowances Acquired in Each Year by Vintage CCA Acquisition CCA Vintage Year: (Million Tonnes) Allowance Vintage Year: (Million Current $) CA GHG Allowance Year: v2013 v2014 v2015 v2016 v2017 v2018 v2019 v2020 v2021 v2022 GHG Allowance v2013 v2014 v2015 v2016 v2017 v2018 v2019 v2020 v2021 v2022 Costs thru 2020 Acquisition Year: (million nominal $) Before 2013 $10.50 N.A. $22.67 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. Before 2013 42.52 N.A. 45.33 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. $87.86 2013 $15.50 N.A. $25.16 $18.28 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. In 2013 232.50 N.A. 75.48 54.84 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. $362.82 2014 $20.00 $20.00 $27.93 $20.29 $23.40 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2014 0.00 140.00 83.78 40.58 35.10 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. $299.46 2015 $31.00 $31.00 $31.00 $22.52 $25.97 $29.98 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2015 0.00 310.00 124.00 45.05 25.97 74.95 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. $579.96 2016 $25.00 $25.00 $25.00 $25.00 $28.83 $33.28 $35.10 N.A. N.A. N.A. 2016 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 115.32 116.47 35.10 N.A. N.A. N.A. $316.88 2017 $32.00 $32.00 $32.00 $32.00 $32.00 $36.94 $38.96 $36.56 N.A. N.A. 2017 0.00 0.00 0.00 64.00 192.00 147.75 77.92 73.12 N.A. N.A. $554.78 2018 $41.00 $41.00 $41.00 $41.00 $41.00 $41.00 $43.24 $40.58 $36.56 N.A. 2018 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 205.00 369.00 216.22 81.16 73.12 N.A. $944.50 2019 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $45.05 $40.58 $40.58 2019 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 48.00 90.09 77.10 81.16 $296.36 2020 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $45.05 $45.05 2020 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.00 45.05 90.09 $160.14 2021 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 2021 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 350.00 50.00 $450.00 Total Costs by Vintage $275.02 $450.00 $328.60 $254.47 $573.38 $708.16 $377.23 $319.37 $545.27 $221.25 $3,602.76 NPV 2013 thru 2020 = $2,558.02 DO NOT ENTER PRICES IN THE THREE PRICE MATRICES BELOW. INPUTS ARE IN worksheet: CCA Prices NPV as 1/01/2013 Low Case Allowance Prices Low Case Allowance Prices w Purchases from DATA worksheet Average Price Paid for Net California Carbon Allowances Acquired (Nominal $/Tonne) Net Costs of California Carbon Allowances Acquired in Each Year by Vintage CCA Acquisition CCA Vintage Year: (Million Tonnes) Allowance Vintage Year: (Million Current $) CA GHG Allowance Year: v2013 v2014 v2015 v2016 v2017 v2018 v2019 v2020 v2021 v2022 GHG Allowance v2013 v2014 v2015 v2016 v2017 v2018 v2019 v2020 v2021 v2022 Costs thru 2020 Acquisition Year: (million nominal $) Before 2013 $10.00 N.A. $12.43 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. Before 2013 40.50 N.A. 24.86 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. $65.36 2013 $12.00 N.A. $13.80 $16.09 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. In 2013 180.00 N.A. 41.39 48.26 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. $269.65 2014 $14.00 $14.00 $15.32 $17.86 $18.28 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2014 0.00 98.00 45.95 35.71 27.42 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. $207.08 2015 $17.00 $17.00 $17.00 $19.82 $20.29 $19.01 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2015 0.00 170.00 68.00 39.64 20.29 47.53 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. $345.46 2016 $22.00 $22.00 $22.00 $22.00 $22.52 $21.10 $19.74 N.A. N.A. N.A. 2016 0.00 0.00 0.00 44.00 90.09 73.86 19.74 N.A. N.A. N.A. $227.69 2017 $25.00 $25.00 $25.00 $25.00 $25.00 $23.42 $21.91 $20.47 N.A. N.A. 2017 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 150.00 93.69 43.83 40.95 N.A. N.A. $378.47 2018 $26.00 $26.00 $26.00 $26.00 $26.00 $26.00 $24.32 $22.73 $21.94 N.A. 2018 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 130.00 234.00 121.62 45.45 43.87 N.A. $574.94 2019 $27.00 $27.00 $27.00 $27.00 $27.00 $27.00 $27.00 $25.23 $24.35 $25.97 2019 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 27.00 50.45 46.26 51.94 $175.66 2020 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $28.00 $27.03 $28.83 2020 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.00 27.03 57.66 $98.68 2021 $30.00 $30.00 $30.00 $30.00 $30.00 $30.00 $30.00 $30.00 $30.00 $32.00 2021 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 30.00 210.00 32.00 $272.00 Total Costs by Vintage $220.50 $268.00 $180.20 $217.61 $417.80 $449.08 $212.19 $180.85 $327.16 $141.60 $2,342.99 NPV 2013 thru 2020 = $1,679.27 DO NOT ENTER PRICES IN THIS PRICE MATRIX. INPUTS ARE IN worksheet: CCA Prices NPV as 1/01/2013 Stress Case 1 Allowance Prices Stress Case 1 Allowance Prices w Purchases from DATA worksheet Average Price Paid for Net California Carbon Allowances Acquired (Nominal $/Tonne) Net Costs of California Carbon Allowances Acquired in Each Year by Vintage CCA Acquisition CCA Vintage Year: (Million Tonnes) Allowance Vintage Year: (Million Current $) CA GHG Allowance Year: v2013 v2014 v2015 v2016 v2017 v2018 v2019 v2020 v2021 v2022 GHG Allowance v2013 v2014 v2015 v2016 v2017 v2018 v2019 v2020 v2021 v2022 Costs thru 2020 Acquisition Year: (million nominal $) Before 2013 $12.00 N.A. $38.02 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. Before 2013 48.60 N.A. 76.04 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. $124.64 2013 $25.00 N.A. $42.20 $34.37 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. In 2013 375.00 N.A. 126.61 103.10 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. $604.71 2014 $36.00 $36.00 $46.85 $38.15 $42.41 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2014 0.00 252.00 140.54 76.29 63.61 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. $532.45 2015 $52.00 $52.00 $52.00 $42.34 $47.07 $47.53 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2015 0.00 520.00 208.00 84.68 47.07 118.82 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. $978.58 2016 $47.00 $47.00 $47.00 $47.00 $52.25 $52.76 $51.18 N.A. N.A. N.A. 2016 0.00 0.00 0.00 94.00 209.01 184.64 51.18 N.A. N.A. N.A. $538.84 2017 $58.00 $58.00 $58.00 $58.00 $58.00 $58.56 $56.81 $53.38 N.A. N.A. 2017 0.00 0.00 0.00 116.00 348.00 234.23 113.63 106.75 N.A. N.A. $918.62 2018 $65.00 $65.00 $65.00 $65.00 $65.00 $65.00 $63.06 $59.25 $54.84 N.A. 2018 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 325.00 585.00 315.32 118.50 109.68 N.A. $1,453.49 2019 $70.00 $70.00 $70.00 $70.00 $70.00 $70.00 $70.00 $65.77 $60.87 $60.87 2019 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 70.00 131.53 115.66 121.74 $438.93 2020 $73.00 $73.00 $73.00 $73.00 $73.00 $73.00 $73.00 $73.00 $67.57 $67.57 2020 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 36.50 67.57 135.14 $239.20 2021 $75.00 $75.00 $75.00 $75.00 $75.00 $75.00 $75.00 $75.00 $75.00 $75.00 2021 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 75.00 525.00 75.00 $675.00 Total Costs by Vintage $423.60 $772.00 $551.20 $474.08 $992.70 $1,122.70 $550.13 $468.28 $817.90 $331.88 $5,829.46 NPV 2013 thru 2020 = $4,163.56 NPV as 1/01/2013 DO NOT ENTER PRICES IN THIS PRICE MATRIX. Allowance Prices ARE IN worksheet: CCA PRICES Stress Case 2 Allowance Prices Stress Case 2 Allowance Prices w Purchases from DATA worksheet Average Price Paid for Net California Carbon Allowances Acquired (Nominal $/Tonne) Net Costs of California Carbon Allowances Acquired in Each Year by Vintage CCA Acquisition CCA Vintage Year: (Million Tonnes) Allowance Vintage Year: (Million Current $) CA GHG Allowance Year: v2013 v2014 v2015 v2016 v2017 v2018 v2019 v2020 v2021 v2022 GHG Allowance v2013 v2014 v2015 v2016 v2017 v2018 v2019 v2020 v2021 v2022 Costs thru 2020 Acquisition Year: (million nominal $) Before 2013 $13.00 N.A. $44.60 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. Before 2013 52.65 N.A. 89.21 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. $141.86 2013 $30.00 N.A. $49.51 $42.41 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. In 2013 450.00 N.A. 148.53 127.23 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. $725.75 2014 $41.00 $41.00 $54.95 $47.07 $46.80 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2014 0.00 287.00 164.86 94.15 70.19 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. $616.21 2015 $61.00 $61.00 $61.00 $52.25 $51.94 $54.84 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2015 0.00 610.00 244.00 104.50 51.94 137.10 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. $1,147.55 2016 $58.00 $58.00 $58.00 $58.00 $57.66 $60.87 $62.88 N.A. N.A. N.A. 2016 0.00 0.00 0.00 116.00 230.63 213.05 62.88 N.A. N.A. N.A. $622.56 2017 $64.00 $64.00 $64.00 $64.00 $64.00 $67.57 $69.80 $65.81 N.A. N.A. 2017 0.00 0.00 0.00 128.00 384.00 270.27 139.60 131.61 N.A. N.A. $1,053.48 2018 $75.00 $75.00 $75.00 $75.00 $75.00 $75.00 $77.48 $73.05 $68.00 N.A. 2018 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 375.00 675.00 387.39 146.09 136.00 N.A. $1,719.48 2019 $86.00 $86.00 $86.00 $86.00 $86.00 $86.00 $86.00 $81.08 $75.48 $77.10 2019 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 86.00 162.16 143.41 154.21 $545.78 2020 $90.00 $90.00 $90.00 $90.00 $90.00 $90.00 $90.00 $90.00 $83.78 $85.59 2020 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 45.00 83.78 171.17 $299.95 2021 $93.00 $93.00 $93.00 $93.00 $93.00 $93.00 $93.00 $93.00 $93.00 $95.00 2021 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 93.00 651.00 95.00 $839.00 Total Costs by Vintage $502.65 $897.00 $646.60 $569.88 $1,111.77 $1,295.42 $675.87 $577.87 $1,014.20 $420.38 $6,872.63 NPV 2013 thru 2020 = $4,900.91 NPV as 1/01/2013CCA PRICES 11/5/12 CCA GHG Allowance Prices Scenario Price Expectations Nov 2012 Auction Annual Nominal $/Tonne Avg. Price Enter rates here: Scenarios 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Low Case $10.00 $12.00 $14.00 $17.00 $22.00 $25.00 $26.00 $27.00 $28.00 $30.00 $32.00 nominal year $ Base Case $10.50 $15.50 $20.00 $31.00 $25.00 $32.00 $41.00 $48.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 Base Case CA GHG Allowance Prices Average CPI inflation rate: Stress Case 1 $12.00 $25.00 $36.00 $52.00 $47.00 $58.00 $65.00 $70.00 $73.00 $75.00 $75.00 Are Entered In GHG Allowance Costs will vary each year 2.50% Stress Case 2 $13.00 $30.00 $41.00 $61.00 $58.00 $64.00 $75.00 $86.00 $90.00 $93.00 $95.00 All other price scenarios are entered in this Worksheet Fixed APCR & Reserve Price Escalation Price of Allowance Price Containment Reserve (APCR) Tiers fixed by regulation 5.00% $40 APCR Tier 1 $40.00 $42.86 $46.08 $49.53 $53.25 $57.24 $61.54 $66.15 $71.11 $76.45 $82.18 Annual Escalation $45 APCR Tier 2 $45.00 $48.22 $51.84 $55.73 $59.91 $64.40 $69.23 $74.42 $80.00 $86.00 $92.45 Allowance Price Escalation 1.1100 $50 APCR Tier 3 $50.00 $53.58 $57.60 $61.92 $66.56 $71.55 $76.92 $82.69 $88.89 $95.56 $102.73 APCR Tier Price Escalation 1.0750 Minimum Reserve Price $10.00 $10.71 $11.51 $12.38 $13.30 $14.30 $15.38 $16.53 $17.77 $19.10 $20.53 Discounting Adder for Prices to be paid for Advance Allowances 3.50% Base Case CA GHG Allowance Prices Are Entered In GHG Allowance Costs worksheet Discount Rate for NPV: All other price scenarios are entered in this Worksheet 8.50% from GHG ALLOWANCE COSTSNov.CALC Cap-and-Trade Holding Limits through Year 2020 DO NOT ENTER DATA Hypothetical Spreadsheet Illustration 14-Feb-13 version 1 § 95920. Trading. IN THIS WORKSHEET. Holding Limits Notes USE "DATA" worksheet. Only applies to Compliance Only applies to Holding Account Combined total reflects the specified PEAR Simulations Using ET-SIM and VeconLab models: Enter data in DATA worksheet Covered CO2: Electric Company Total Company Account split between compliance and holding accounts Since PEAR does not now simulate Advance auctions, only limits that apply Do Not Alter Cells or Enter Data in this Worksheet Percent Electric CO2 Allowances Annual Total Company Holding Limit to the current year apply. The ARB limits are in columns J and K for the year and month shown in columns A &B Million Tonnes CO2e UOG+Purchases Required for CO2 Allowances Combined ARB Annual Limit Cumulative Maximum (million tonnes) The CPUC purchase limit formula for Current Year Allowances is calculated in cells M27 to M34 and for Future Vintage Allowances in cells N27 to N34. Annual Emissions Annual Compliance Required Limited Exemption By Budget Year End of Year Hypothetical Annual Total Electric + Fuel Obligation for for Owned Electric Fuel Dist + Due to Transfers to Compliance Acct (Holding Acct) for All Advance CCAs Maximum ARB combined Holding Limits in All Accounts Forecasted emissions (million tonnes) EDU Compliance Gen + Covered Power Covered to Cover Prior Year Emissions Current Allowances (Disregard) assuming specified Limited Exemptions in Compliance Account (see matrix in DATA that controls the fraction of each year's allowances transferred to the Compliance Account from the General Holding Account.) These calculations assume perfect forecasting, so when emissions change, there will be a shortfall or a surplus. Year Month CP1 scope Added in CP2 CP2 + 3 scope Purchases Electric Power by Month & Year Curr+prior+APCR Advance CCAs Current + Prior Years For Holding Limits Current + prior year allowances + APCR purchases are in one bucket, Future years are in separate buckets by year 2011 25.00 25.00 65.00% ARB Holding Limits Include Limited Exemptions. 2012 June 23.75 23.75 65.00% 0.00 June 2012 5.945 11.738 5.945 June 2012 Future/Advance vintage Holding Limits increase, until advance sale vintages become the current vintage and are subject to the combined holding limit for all current and prior year vintages 2013 Oct-Nov 22.56 0.00 22.56 65.00% 14.67 14.67 15.84 Oct-Nov 2013 5.945 23.172 21.79 Oct-Nov 2013 Actual Future/Advance Holding Limit treats each future vintage separately with the cumulative amounts shown in column M; 2014 Oct-Nov 22.18 0.00 22.18 65.00% 14.41 14.41 20.24 Oct-Nov 2014 5.867 34.307 26.11 Oct-Nov 2014 This calc is a cumulative maximum assuming that each vintage is maxed out 2015 Jan 21.85 0.00 21.85 65.00% 14.20 14.20 20.24 Jan 2015 11.738 22.570 31.98 Jan 2015 2015s purchased in advance auction become current so go to other bucket, reducing the cumulative max in column I. 2015 Oct-Nov 44.93 Oct-Nov 2015 11.738 33.402 56.66 Oct-Nov 2015 Actually in February 2015 - can now purchase advance 2018 CCAs so cum. advance holding limit rises 2015 31-Dec 15.84 Dec 31 2015 11.738 33.402 27.58 Dec 31 2015 2016 Oct-Nov 20.59 0.00 20.59 65.00% 13.38 13.38 23.27 Oct-Nov 2016 11.435 32.500 34.71 Oct-Nov 2016 The future vintages limit adds Future/Advance allowances and removes vintages as they become current 2017 Oct-Nov 19.97 0.00 19.97 65.00% 12.98 12.98 31.41 Oct-Nov 2017 11.135 31.595 42.54 Oct-Nov 2017 Future limit drops Jan 1 and rises with Feb auction each year, assuming sufficient transfers have been made to the Compliance Account 2018 Oct-Nov 19.38 0.00 19.38 65.00% 12.59 12.59 63.70 Oct-Nov 2018 10.832 30.992 74.54 Oct-Nov 2018 In 2018 and for 2019 and 2020 this calc assumes that advance auctions continue to sell 2021, et seq. vintage allowances, and that emissions are entered for 2021-2023. These are used for calculation of CPUC purchase limits. 2018 31-Dec 23.13 Dec 31 2018 10.832 30.992 33.96 Dec 31 2018 2019 Oct-Nov 18.79 0.00 18.79 65.00% 12.22 12.22 26.91 Oct-Nov 2019 10.533 30.390 37.44 Oct-Nov 2019 2020 Oct-Nov 18.23 0.00 18.23 65.00% 11.85 11.85 32.16 Oct-Nov 2020 10.230 30.090 42.39 Oct-Nov 2020 2021 Oct-Nov 18.15 0.00 18.15 65.00% 11.80 11.80 26.30 Oct-Nov 2021 9.930 29.790 36.23 Oct-Nov 2021 2022 Oct-Nov 18.40 0.00 18.40 65.00% 11.96 11.96 29.84 Oct-Nov 2022 L27 should be > 1.0 (million tonnes) (million tonnes) (million tonnes) ====> ====> 2023 Oct-Nov 18.05 0.00 18.05 65.00% 11.73 11.73 33.43 Oct-Nov 2023 IMHR 2 std dev multiplier = Annual CPUC Non-Useful Calc of Non-Useful Calc of Total Allowances 106.31 106.31 '=Covered Emissions 2013-2020 1.20 Allowance+Offsets Prior Year CCAs CPUC Non-Binding Max Limit Non-Binding Total Company Emissions = 163.56 2013-2020 Covered Electric Total Company Oblig IOU Only - CPUC Yearly Compliance Obligation Purchase Limit Purchase Limit Cumulative Purchases for Future Year CCAs CPUC Holding Limit The emissions shown in columns C, D and E are full year emissions for the year indicated in column A. Year Max in Each Year A= Net Remaining Thru End of Prior Year If Buy Max Future CCAs All Vintages The CPUC Purchase Limit has two component formulae. Only the Direct Compliance Obligation Limit is estimated here, The months shown in column B only apply to the Limited Exemption Calculations in column J Maximum LE Total if A=0 in all yrs ComplianceObligationtoDate Allowed by CPUC PL since the Financial Exposure Purchase Limit will be smaller and requires knowing the net purchases to date for hedging purposes plus an estimate The amounts in columns H, I, and J are the Maximum Emissions that require Allowances and that could qualify for the Limited Exemption. 138.00 2013 38.01 -4.05 33.96 4.05 29.91 33.96 of the financial exposure to GHG costs embedded in the price of energy. In this spreadsheet the energy costs are unknown. Emissions Qualified for the Limited Exemption as of Dec 31 2015 AND Dec 31 2018 based on CCAs remaining in Compliance Account 2014 37.07 -4.38 32.68 19.05 47.59 66.64 The Direct Compliance Obligation Formula is estimated for each year in cells M31-M38, which show the maximum amount of compliance instruments the IOU would Actual Allowances Qualified for the Limited Exemption depend on sufficient allowances being placed into the Compliance Account 2015 35.93 3.03 38.97 26.05 79.56 76.53 be allowed to purchase in the current year for all vintages of CCAs combined. Column N calculates hypothetical Holding Limits for allowances that could be used to cover emissions in the current year. 2016 34.39 -4.76 29.62 48.0 87.18 106.15 The CPUC defines “purchase” as taking title of the instrument when it is delivered. Note that under this framework, an IOU Column O calculates the sum of all Holding Limits that will apply separately to each vintage of allowances for future years. 2017 33.36 -0.38 32.98 57.0 111.16 139.12 would not be allowed to purchase allowances or offsets with vintages more than 3 years from the current year. See D.12-04-046, Appendix 1. 2018 32.43 -1.90 30.53 71.5 127.19 129.08 The CPUC purchase Limit applies only to Investor-Owned-Utilities and does not apply to Publicly-Owned-Utilities, munis, coops, merchant generators, factories, refineries, etc. ARB auction purchase limits are not applied in this worksheet, assuming purchases can be made in secondary market. 2019 31.72 -13.30 18.42 95.5 121.61 147.50 LCY = A + (100% * FDcy) + (60% * FDcy+1) + (40% * FDcy+2) + (20% * FDcy+3) 2020 31.27 -10.09 21.18 104.5 133.79 168.69 Where: “L” is the maximum number of GHG compliance instruments an IOU can purchase each year for purposes of meeting their direct compliance obligation. For the applicable rules governing these holding limits, see title 17, California Code of Regulations (CCR), section 95920 2021 111.0 check in cells X45 to X52 “A” is the utility’s net remaining compliance obligation to date”, calculated as the sum of the actual emissions for which the utility is responsible for retiring 2012 20.89 0.00 20.89 Future Years for 2018-2020 allowances (or purchasing on behalf of a third party) up to the Current Year, 15.00 EDU Cap: 97.7 million tonnes assumes program continues minus the total allowances or offsets the utility has purchased up to the Current 29.25 includes 8.7 CHP selling to the grid Current + Prior Year Limit Advance / Future Yr Limit Year that could be retired against those obligations. This term in the calculation 36.02 Allowance Allocations to: End of Year End of Year ensures the IOUs are always able to buy sufficient allowances to cover any prior 47.02 Budget Year ARB Annual Allowance Budget (million tonnes) EDU Cap Adjustment Factor Total EDU Allowances (million tonnes) PG&E LADWP SCE SDG&E SMUD Budget Year ARB Holding Limit for Current Allowances without Limited Exemptions (million tonnes) by Budget Year The ARB Holding Limit for Current & Prior Year Allowances + Limited Exmpts (million tonnes) End-of-Year years’ shortfalls, given that actual emissions may end up being less than forecast Check CPUC Max Effective Holding Limit 95.49 2013 162.8 0.981 95.84 24.95 13.59 32.60 6.92 3.15 2013 5.945 21.79 and/or prior decisions about how much procurement to do. 2013 33.96 50.75 2014 159.7 0.963 94.09 24.79 13.35 31.59 6.55 3.09 2014 5.867 26.11 “FD” is the utility’s forecasted compliance obligation”, the projected amount of 2014 66.64 60.30 2015 394.5 0.944 92.23 23.99 12.92 31.40 6.43 2.96 2015 11.738 27.58 emissions for which the utility is responsible for retiring allowances, or 2015 76.53 69.18 2016 382.4 0.925 90.37 23.69 13.05 29.55 6.41 2.98 2016 11.435 34.71 responsible for purchasing on behalf of a third party, calculated using an implied 2016 106.15 140.17 2017 370.4 0.907 88.61 24.11 13.22 26.87 6.46 3.06 2017 11.135 42.54 market heat rate (IMHR) that is two-standard deviations above the expected 2017 139.12 50.75 2018 358.3 0.888 86.76 23.35 13.26 25.89 6.29 3.10 2018 10.832 33.96 IMHR consistent with the approach described by PG&E. 2018 129.08 58.66 2019 346.3 0.869 84.90 23.10 12.70 25.02 6.19 3.15 2019 10.533 37.44 “cy” is the current year, i.e., the year in which the utility is transacting in the 2019 147.50 87.60 2020 334.2 0.851 83.14 22.64 11.68 24.70 6.14 3.19 2020 10.230 42.39 market. 2020 168.69 146.65 2508.6 2021 9.930 36.23 Should this equation result in a negative number in a given year, the in 2012 1/3 of 2013 allowances + POU consigned Contribution to the Allowance Price Containment Reserve by Year Minimum Total IOU Consigned & Auctioned Allowances for Current Year (million tonnes) Minimum Total ARB Auctioned Allowances for Advance Year (YR+3) (million tonnes) 39.450 ARB Auction Purchase Limit for EDUs for Current Vintage Allowances ARB Purchase Limit for covered entities but non-EDUs for Current Vintage Allowances ARB Purchase Limit for All for Advance (Yr + 3) Vintage Allowances Budget Year utility’s Direct Compliance Obligation Purchase Limit for that year should be set 23.13 2013 includes state-owned 2013 1.63 56.849 38.240 22.739 8.527 9.863 2013 at zero. 2014 1.59 62.302 37.040 24.921 9.345 9.560 2014 2015 15.78 59.346 35.830 none none none 2015 2016 15.29 57.262 34.630 none none none 2016 2017 14.82 55.144 33.420 none none none 2017 2018 25.08 51.639 32.200 none none none 2018 Note that ARB auction purchase limits shown in columns J and K, rows 50 and 51 apply only to auctions in 2012, 2013 and 2014 and don't include consigned allowances. 2019 24.24 50.505 31.000 none none none 2019 ffff 2020 23.39 49.744 29.800 none none none 2020 121.83 these may be Annual Emissions Note that as of 12/2012, PEAR allowance auction simulations are for current vintages only APCR= 115.40 higher due to other to be Covered w CCAs Hence, only limits applicable to current and prior year vintage allowances are estimated in col N & O, 65-72. 0.95 voluntary consignments 2013 14.67 CPUC limits do not apply to POUs, munis, coops and merchant generators by POUs and state-owned allowances 2014 14.41 e.g., in Nov 2012 & Feb 2013 auctions 2015 14.20 2016 13.38 Upcoming Feb 2013 auction 2017 12.98 2013 12,944,822 9,474,657 3,470,165 =consigned 2013 allowances for Feb 2013 auction 2018 12.59 2016 9,560,000 38,240,000 0 2019 12.22 2020 11.85 106.31 Additions Minus CCAs to try to transfer Allowances Purchased Cumulative Emissions in Compliance Period Transfers to Compliance Account Compliance Account End-of-Year General Holding Current & Prior Year Additions to Gen'l Holding Transfers to Compliance Account Current & Prior Year Allowances in Gen'l Holding Account by EOYr Max Compliance & Available for Cumulative Emissions In this Year Balance at EOY Account Balance Account =Net Additions 2013 in this Year Acct -EOY Compliance in CP Compliance Acct Additions Obligation Before 2013 2014 2013 15.84 15.84 36.05 CP1: 2013-2014 14.67 14.67 15.84 2013 15.84 11.21 19.05 3.21 3.21 2015 2014 4.40 20.24 47.47 CP2: 2015-2017 14.41 29.08 4.40 2014 20.24 20.31 7.00 2.60 5.81 2016 2015 24.68 15.84 42.40 CP3: 2018-2020 14.20 14.20 24.68 2015 15.84 15.12 22.00 -2.68 3.12 2017 2016 7.43 23.27 13.38 27.59 7.43 2016 23.27 18.19 9.00 1.57 4.69 2018 2017 8.13 31.41 12.98 40.57 8.13 2017 31.41 26.06 14.50 6.37 11.06 2019 2018 32.29 23.13 12.59 12.59 32.29 2018 23.13 16.76 24.00 -8.29 2.76 2020 2019 3.78 26.91 12.22 24.81 3.78 2019 26.91 19.89 9.00 5.22 7.99 2013-2020 2020 5.25 32.16 11.85 36.66 5.25 2020 32.16 18.14 6.50 1.25 9.24 2021 30.80 26.30 22.14 2021 17.64 Year, Month to Create 106.31 1.04 Limited Exemption Current or Prior Year Allowances in General Holding Account Remaining Available for Transfer to the Compliance Account 2012-2020 123.95 &Transfer to to check whether there are sufficient allowances to capture Limited Exemption emissions from current or prior years Banking Ratio Compliance Account First in - First Out (Million Tonnes) Year Month Running Total Current & Prior Year Allowances in the General Holding Account is calculated in C94 to C103. The total Allowances in the Compliance Account are in J13 to J26. Date 2011 Additions to Genl Holding Account - Current & Prior Years Limited Exemption Amounts by Year Advance GHG Allowances Held in this Year Current and Prior Year GHG Allowances Transfers to ComplianceAcct Shortfall in Requested Transfers to Compliance Acct Retirements from Compliance Account Compliance Account Balance Imbalance 2011 check purchases of current & prior year allowances 2012 June 0.0 0.00 Current & Prior Year Cumu Purchases 2.00 in General Holding Account 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 June 2012 2013 Oct 19.1 15.84 19.1 8.00 3.21 15.84 0.00 15.84 0.00 Oct-Nov 2013 ===> 2014 Oct 7.0 20.24 26.1 14.50 5.81 4.40 0.00 20.24 0.00 Oct-Nov 2014 2013 2015 Jan 0.0 20.24 26.1 14.50 5.81 0.00 24.68 20.24 0.00 Jan 2015 2014 2015 Oct 22.0 44.93 48.0 14.50 3.12 24.68 0.00 44.93 Oct-Nov 2015 2015 2015 31-Dec 0.0 15.84 48.0 12.00 3.12 0.00 0.00 29.08 15.84 Dec 31 2015 2016 2016 Oct 9.0 23.27 57.0 13.50 4.69 7.43 0.00 23.27 0.00 Oct-Nov 2016 2017 2017 Oct 14.5 31.41 71.5 15.00 11.06 8.13 0.00 31.41 0.00 Oct-Nov 2017 2018 2018 Oct 24.0 63.70 95.5 15.00 2.76 32.29 0.00 63.70 0.00 Oct-Nov 2018 2019 2018 31-Dec 0.0 23.13 95.5 14.00 2.76 0.00 0.00 40.57 23.13 0.00 Dec 31 2018 2020 2019 Oct 9.0 26.91 104.5 11.90 7.99 3.78 0.00 26.91 0.00 Oct-Nov 2019 2021 2020 Oct 6.5 32.16 111.0 8.90 9.24 5.25 0.00 32.16 Oct-Nov 2020 ===> 2021 Oct 12.9 26.30 124.0 5.00 0.00 22.14 8.66 36.66 17.64 Oct-Nov 2021 111.05 123.95 -8.66 106.31 Transfer Fractions of Annual Emission Obligations Annual Transfer of CCAs to Compliance Account Used to Calculate Limited Exemption & Holding Limits, subject to ARB Holding Limits and CPUC Purchase Limits, as applicable Fraction of Each Year's Emissions Compliance Obligation to Transfer in the Designated Years after the Emissions Year, assuming sufficient purchases to cover the transfers and compliance with the ARB requirement to transfer a minimum of 30% of the immediate Prior Year's (i.e., last year's) Emissions. Prior Emissions Year: ARB Holding limits and allowed purchases will be maximized if 2011 and 2012 L.E. emissions are fully covered in 2013, then 2013 emissions in 2014, etc. by entering 1.0 in cells N13, O13, P14, Q15, R16, etc. Other transfers may be entered but must sum to 1.0 by the compliance year. CCA Transfer Year: E 2011 2012 E2013 2014 Emissions Year: to Compliance Account Electric LE Fuel LE E2013 E2014 E2015 E2016 E2017 E2018 E2019 E2020 2013 0.50 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2013 0.50 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2014 0.00 1.00 0.30 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2015 0.00 1.00 0.70 1.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2016 0.10 0.00 N.A. N.A. 0.30 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2017 0.13 0.00 N.A. N.A. 0.00 0.30 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2018 0.00 0.00 N.A. N.A. 0.70 0.70 1.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. 2019 0.00 0.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.30 N.A. N.A. 2020 0.05 0.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.00 0.30 N.A. 2021 0.05 0.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.70 0.70 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2011/2012 column shows fraction transferred The sum of transfers for to contribute to Limited Exemption. each emissions year 2013-2020 After 2013 transfer year, the fraction applies to calculated in Row 23 must the sum of 2011 and 2012 verified electric emissions equal 1.0 to comply, unless L.E. allowances make up shortfall. The sum will be added to L.E. so must ensure that Verified emissions from 2011 & 2011/2012 totals added to L.E. don't exceed actual 2011+ 2012 add to Limited Exemption 2012 emissions. 2011 and 2012 emissions can only if sufficient allowances are put add to L.E. in any year and won't disappear into the Compliance Account in 2012 & 2013 or years thereafter as transferred via column J in CALC worksheet. so long as sufficient allowances remain To maximize each year's L.E. and holdings, enter 1.0 in X12, X13, Y14, Y15, Z14, AA15 (must=1), in the Compliance Acct equal to 2011+2012 emissions. AB16, AC17, AD18 (must=1.0), AE19, AF20, and AG21 (must=1.0) Of course, this may not be economic or feasible. Maximum L.E. will have 1.0 in cells X12 & Y13, in DATA, so long as sufficient CCAs are purchased and transferred into the Compliance Acct. 0 For fuels emissions in 2013 and 2014 similar considerations apply to fractions entered in column O. 2013/2014 column shows fraction to L.E. from gas/fuel emissions that can contribute starting on 1/01/2015 for 2013 emissions and 10/01/2015 for 2014 fuel emissions. After 2016 the fraction applies to sum of eligible emissions from 2013 + 2014. Check the resulting additions to LE in columns P and T in DATA worksheet to see if the tons contributed in each year are as intended.AUCTION SIM Cap-and-Trade Holding Limits (§ 95920. Trading)- Gold River Portfolio Limits for General Holding + Compliance Accounts ARB Holding Limit (million tonnes) Spreadsheet For Current & Prior plus for Each Vintage Base Scenario Total Current & Prior Total Advance CCAs Total Allowances Total Advance Total Currnt+Prior Total Allowances Allowances Allowances Total Allowances Total Allowances Holding Limit Amount Scenario Year Allowances Limited Exemptions Advance / Future Initial GHG tonnes Year CCAs Acquired Acquired in Each Acquired in Each CCAs Held in Year CCAs in Gen'l in General Holding Transferred to Surrendered in Compliance Held in Compl + + Lmtd Exempt Below Results in General Holding in Compliance Acct Year CCAs by Annual Emissions in this Budget Year Budget Year Budget Year (All Advance CCAs Are Holding Acct Account each Year Compliance from Compliance Account at EOY Gen'l Holding Acct - Allowances Held ARB Limit & Compliance Accts for Current + Prior Vintage Year Compliance (except pre-2013) in Gen'l Holding Acct Account Account Year for each Budget Year Year CCAs Not by Budget Year Obligation Pre-2013 Purchases (million tonnes) (million tonnes) 2011 (million tonnes) (million tonnes) (million tonnes) (million tonnes) 4.05 2.00 6.05 2.00 2012 2013 5.95 21.79 N.A. 14.67 15.00 6.00 21.00 8.00 3.21 11.21 15.84 0.00 15.84 27.05 O.K. w ARB 2.74 2013 2014 5.87 26.11 N.A. 14.41 7.00 6.50 13.50 14.50 5.81 20.31 4.40 0.00 20.24 40.55 O.K. w ARB 0.06 2014 2015 11.74 27.58 11.74 14.20 14.00 5.50 19.50 12.00 3.12 15.12 24.68 29.08 15.84 30.97 O.K. w ARB 8.61 2015 2016 11.44 34.71 11.44 13.38 2.00 8.50 10.50 13.50 4.69 18.19 7.43 0.00 23.27 41.47 O.K. w ARB 6.74 2016 2017 11.13 42.54 11.13 12.98 8.00 8.00 16.00 15.00 11.06 26.06 8.13 0.00 31.41 57.47 O.K. w ARB 0.08 2017 2018 10.83 33.96 10.83 12.59 14.00 9.00 23.00 14.00 2.76 16.76 32.29 40.57 23.13 39.90 O.K. w ARB 8.07 2018 2019 10.53 37.44 10.53 12.22 1.00 5.90 6.90 11.90 7.99 19.89 3.78 0.00 26.91 46.80 O.K. w ARB 2.55 2019 2020 10.23 42.39 10.23 11.85 0.50 3.00 3.50 8.90 9.24 18.14 5.25 0.00 32.16 50.30 O.K. w ARB 0.99 2020 22.14 36.66 Gold River Portfolio- Expected Committed Capacity Allowance Transfers to the Compliance Account (million tonnes) PEAR Auction Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 CP-1 Allowance Need from purchases 29.08 Note: received per round 8.79 4.74 4.74 4.66 4.66 4.66 32.27 In order for the results of this spreadsheet to conform to the cumulative after round 8.79 13.54 18.28 22.94 27.60 32.27 110.9% This PEAR Simulation Case: PEAR auctions that have three rounds in one calendar year, Remaining Need: -3.18 Bought Enough this spreadsheet must run a comparable case that acquires enough allowances Holding Limit 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 by the end of 2014 to comply with CP-1. However, meeting CP-1 full compliance w/o Limited Exempt 5.95 5.95 5.95 5.87 5.87 5.87 needs by end 2014 may or may not be the most economic approach. plus Limited Exempt 21.79 21.79 21.79 26.11 26.11 26.11 To conform the spreadsheet case in the DATA worksheet Expected Transfers to Compliance Account from this Holding Limits Spreadsheet (from cells L10 to L17) 69.6% case with PEAR Auction purchases from DATA: 5.28 5.28 5.28 1.47 1.47 1.47 20.24 Buy More CCAs Earlier Simulated Transfers Based on PEAR Auction purchases in C22 to H22 + F9 PEAR Simulation Case specified in this worksheet: 5.28 5.28 5.28 6.75 5.01 4.66 32.27 Bought Enough cumulative transfers 5.28 10.56 15.84 22.59 27.60 32.27 PEAR See cells c42 to H42 Limited Exemptions 11.23 16.51 21.79 28.46 33.47 38.13 to check Total Current + Prior Allowances Holding Limits + Expected Current + Prior Allowances from this spreadsheet 19.05 26.05 Limited Exemption 9.05 5.00 5.00 2.33 2.33 2.33 for PEAR auction case Cumulative Cur + Pri 9.05 14.05 19.05 21.38 23.72 26.05 purchases, specified in row 22. Current + Prior Allowances Based on PEAR Auction purchases shown in C22 to H22 + F9 8.79 13.54 18.28 22.94 27.60 32.27 Simulated auction purchases complies w HL+LE complies w HL+LE complies w HL+LE complies w HL+LE complies w HL+LE complies w HL+LE In compliance? The Holding Limit + Limited Exemptions increase as the Limited Exemption, LE, increases by making transfers to the Compliance Account in amounts up to two prior year's verified emissions for these PEAR simulations. Of course, this involves buying more allowances earlier and transferring them to the Compliance Account to capture the available Limited Exemption amounts. This may or may not be the most economic strategy.GRAPHS Linked to various worksheets Linked to DATA worksheet 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Gold River DO NOT CHANGE CELLS A3 to BR68 and the graphs will automatically update Graph Titles, Legends & Text Boxes should be changed with each case as needed. 8.00 7.00 6.50 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.90 5.00 Case 6 with Holding Limits in All Years PEAR-VHC CA Allowance Strategy Calculator_GoldRiver-Feb14-Case6a.xlsx Holding Limit GHG Emissions Obligation DATA is linked to cells in worksheet DATA Limited Exemption Holding Limit plus For Current & Prior Base Scenario Emissions in Cmpl Period Annual Transfer of CCAs to Compliance Account Used to Calculate Limited Exemption & Holding Limits, subject to ARB Holding Limits and CPUC Purchase Limits, as applicable Total Advance Total Current+Prior Total Allowances L.E. Limited Exemptions Year Allowances GHG tonnes Amount Below Maximum Advance Allowances Held in Any Year by Vintage cols Fraction of Each Year's Emissions Compliance Obligation to Transfer in the Designated Years after the Emissions Year, assuming sufficient purchases to cover the transfers and compliance with the ARB requirement to transfer a minimum of 30% of the immediate Prior Year's (i.e., last year's) Emissions. CCAs Held in Year Year CCAs in Gen'l in Compliance All Allowances Held All Current Allowances for Current + Prior in Compliance Acct in General Holding Advance/Future Allowances Holding Limit by Vintage Emissions Cumulative CPUC Purchase Limit - All Vintages Allowances Purchased - All Vintages Current HL + Holdings in Any Year ====> X & Y: Prior Emissions Year: ARB Holding limits and allowed purchases will be maximized if 2011 and 2012 L.E. emissions are fully covered in 2013, then 2013 emissions in 2014, etc. by entering 1.0 in cells N13, O13, P14, Q15, R16, etc. Other transfers may be entered but must sum to 1.0 by the compliance year. (All Advance CCAs Are Holding Acct Account Current + Prior + + Prior Yr Year CCAs for Current + Prior & Compliance Accts Compliance Emissions in by Calendar Year by Calendar Year Ltd Exemption of Advance Allowances CCA Transfer Year: E 2011 2012 E2013 2014 Emissions Year: CCAs to try to transfer Year in Gen'l Holding Acct) (End-of-Year) Advance Allowances in Compl Acct Year CCAs for each Budget Year by Vintage Year, not by Obligation Compl Period All Vintages All Vintages by Vintage Year to Compliance Account Electric LE Fuel LE E2013 E2014 E2015 E2016 E2017 E2018 E2019 E2020 by EOYr 11/5/12 (million tonnes) (million tonnes) (million tonnes) (million tonnes) (million tonnes) calendar year (million tonnes) (million tonnes) (million tonnes) 2013 2011 GHG 0.50 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. in this Year CCA GHG Allowance Prices Scenario Price Expectations Nov 2012 Auction Before 2013 2.00 0.00 2.00 0.00 20.89 6.05 Before 2013 2013 2012GHG 0.50 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 15.84 2013 8.00 3.21 15.84 27.05 19.05 15.84 21.79 5.945 N.A. 14.67 14.67 33.96 21.00 2013 2.74 N.A. 2013 2014 2013FuelGHG 0.00 1.00 0.30 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 4.40 Annual Nominal $/Tonne Year 2014 14.50 5.81 20.24 40.55 26.05 20.24 26.11 5.867 N.A. 14.41 29.08 32.68 13.50 2014 0.06 N.A. 2014 2015 2014FuelGHG 0.00 1.00 0.70 1.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 24.68 Avg. Price Oct 2015 14.50 3.12 44.93 62.55 48.05 44.93 56.66 11.738 11.74 14.26 10.65 38.97 19.50 Oct 2015 8.61 8.00 2015 2016 0.10 0.00 N.A. N.A. 0.30 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 7.43 Linked to CCA PRICES worksheet Scenarios 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 EOY 2015- 14.50 3.12 15.84 33.47 18.97 15.84 27.58 11.738 14.20 14.20 0.00 0.00 EOY 2015- 8.61 2017 0.13 0.00 N.A. N.A. 0.00 0.30 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 8.13 Low Case $10.00 $12.00 $14.00 $17.00 $22.00 $25.00 $26.00 $27.00 $28.00 $30.00 $32.00 2016 12.00 4.69 23.27 39.97 27.97 23.27 34.71 11.435 11.44 13.38 27.59 29.62 10.50 2016 6.74 7.00 2016 2018 0.00 0.00 N.A. N.A. 0.70 0.70 1.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. 32.29 Discount rate for NPV nominal year $ Base Case $10.50 $15.50 $20.00 $31.00 $25.00 $32.00 $41.00 $48.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 Base Case Prices only are entered in 2017 13.50 11.06 31.41 55.97 42.47 31.41 42.54 11.135 11.13 12.98 40.57 32.98 16.00 2017 0.08 6.50 2017 2019 0.00 0.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.30 N.A. N.A. 3.78 8.50% Average CPI inflation rate: Stress Case 1 $12.00 $25.00 $36.00 $52.00 $47.00 $58.00 $65.00 $70.00 $73.00 $75.00 $75.00 GHG ALLOWANCE COSTS. All other price scenatios Oct 2018 15.00 2.76 63.70 81.47 66.47 63.70 74.54 10.832 10.83 12.69 9.45 30.53 23.00 Oct 2018 8.07 10.00 2018 2020 0.05 0.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.00 0.30 N.A. 5.25 from GHG ALLOWANCE COSTS 2.50% Stress Case 2 $13.00 $30.00 $41.00 $61.00 $58.00 $64.00 $75.00 $86.00 $90.00 $93.00 $95.00 are entered in CCA PRICES EOY 2018- 15.00 2.76 23.13 40.90 25.90 23.13 33.96 10.832 12.59 12.59 0.00 0.00 EOY 2018- 8.07 2021 0.05 0.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.70 0.70 1.00 30.80 Fixed APCR & Reserve Price Escalation $0 Price of Allowance Price Containment Reserve (APCR) Tiers 2019 14.00 7.99 26.91 48.90 34.90 26.91 37.44 10.533 10.53 12.22 24.81 18.42 6.90 2019 2.55 8.00 2019 2022 5.00% $40 APCR Tier 1 $40.00 $42.86 $46.08 $49.53 $53.25 $57.24 $61.54 $66.15 $71.11 $76.45 $82.18 2020 11.90 9.24 32.16 53.30 41.40 32.16 42.39 10.230 10.23 11.85 36.66 21.18 3.50 2020 0.99 6.00 2020 2023 See R55 See V55 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 AI to CALC D77-D85 Annual Escalation $45 APCR Tier 2 $45.00 $48.22 $51.84 $55.73 $59.91 $64.40 $69.23 $74.42 $80.00 $86.00 $92.45 9.930 9.93 9.00 2021 4.90 2021 Total CCAs 26.30 0.00 14.67 14.41 14.20 13.38 12.98 12.59 12.22 11.85 120.76 Allowance Price Escalation 1.1100 $50 APCR Tier 3 $50.00 $53.58 $57.60 $61.92 $66.56 $71.55 $76.92 $82.69 $88.89 $95.56 $102.73 Advance Allowances in Hldng Acct Current Allowances in Hldg Acct Allowances in Compliance Acct Advance - Gen'l Hldng Current in Hldg Compliance Acct 9.63 2022 5.00 2022 to try to transfer to 31.69 0.00 Z23 to AG 23 should all = 1.0. Use X12-X21 and Y14-Y21 to build Limited Exemptions. 132.61 APCR Tier Price Escalation 1.0750 Allowances Held by Account Type (million tonnes) Current+Prior Vintages in Holding Account Compliance Acct by vintage Do Not Exceed Historical Verified Emissions Transfers will be deferred to the next year, Linked to DATA worksheet ~Ratio of Total Bank to CP Need by Nov 1, 2015: 1.24 by Nov 1, 2018: 1.17 by Nov 1, 2021: 1.16 Graph Titles, Legends & Text Boxes should be changed manually with each case as needed. Current+Prior Vintages in Compliance Account Ratio Genl/Total Ensure x24 X & Y: Prior Emissions Year: ARB Holding limits and allowed purchases will be maximized if 2011 and 2012 L.E. emissions are fully covered in 2013, then 2013 emissions in 2014, etc. by entering 1.0 in cells N13, O13, P14, Q15, R16, etc. Other transfers may be entered but must sum to 1.0 by the compliance year. CCA Transfer Year: E 2011 2012 E2013 2014 Emissions Year: CCAs to try to transfer to Compliance Account Electric LE Fuel LE E2013 E2014 E2015 E2016 E2017 E2018 E2019 E2020 by EOYr Linked to Graphs -- except captions … 2013 2011 GHG 0.50 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. in this Year Name of this case: This Case 2013 2012GHG 0.50 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 15.84 Average Price Paid for Net California Carbon Allowances Acquired (Nominal $/Tonne) 2014 2013FuelGHG 0.00 1.00 0.30 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 4.40 CCA Acquisition CCA Vintage Year: (Million Tonnes) 2015 2014FuelGHG 0.00 1.00 0.70 1.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 24.68 Year: v2013 v2014 v2015 v2016 v2017 v2018 v2019 v2020 v2021 v2022 2016 0.10 0.00 N.A. N.A. 0.30 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 7.43 2017 0.13 0.00 N.A. N.A. 0.00 0.30 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 8.13 Before 2013 $10.50 N.A. $10.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2018 0.00 0.00 N.A. N.A. 0.70 0.70 1.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. 32.29 2013 $15.50 N.A. $18.00 $20.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2019 0.00 0.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.30 N.A. N.A. 3.78 2014 $20.00 $20.00 $25.00 $20.29 $23.40 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2020 0.05 0.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.00 0.30 N.A. 5.25 2015 $31.00 $31.00 $31.00 $22.52 $25.97 $29.98 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2021 0.05 0.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.70 0.70 1.00 30.80 2016 $25.00 $25.00 $25.00 $25.00 $28.83 $33.28 $35.10 N.A. N.A. N.A. 2022 2017 $32.00 $32.00 $32.00 $32.00 $32.00 $36.94 $38.96 $36.56 N.A. N.A. 2023 See R55 See V55 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 AI to CALC D77-D85 2018 $41.00 $41.00 $41.00 $41.00 $41.00 $41.00 $43.24 $40.58 $36.56 N.A. Total CCAs 26.30 0.00 14.67 14.41 14.20 13.38 12.98 12.59 12.22 11.85 120.76 2019 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $48.00 $45.05 $40.58 $40.58 to try to transfer to 31.69 0.00 Z23 to AG 23 should all = 1.0. Use X12-X21 and Y14-Y21 to build Limited Exemptions. 132.61 2020 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $45.05 $45.05 Compliance Acct by vintage Do Not Exceed Historical Verified Emissions Transfers will be deferred to the next year, 2021 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 Ratio Genl/Total Ensure x24 X & Y: Prior Emissions Year: ARB Holding limits and allowed purchases will be maximized if 2011 and 2012 L.E. emissions are fully covered in 2013, then 2013 emissions in 2014, etc. by entering 1.0 in cells N13, O13, P14, Q15, R16, etc. Other transfers may be entered but must sum to 1.0 by the compliance year. Acquisition Year: CCA Transfer Year: E 2011 2012 E2013 2014 Emissions Year: Before 2013 4.05 N.A. 2.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. to Compliance Account Electric LE Fuel LE E2013 E2014 E2015 E2016 E2017 E2018 E2019 E2020 In 2013 15.00 N.A. 3.00 3.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2013 2011 GHG 0.60 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2014 7.00 3.00 2.00 1.50 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2013 2012GHG 0.40 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2015 10.00 4.00 2.00 1.00 2.50 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2014 2013FuelGHG 1.00 0.30 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2016 2.00 4.00 3.50 1.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. 2015 2014FuelGHG 1.00 0.70 1.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2017 2.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 2.00 N.A. N.A. 2016 0.10 N.A. N.A. 0.30 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2018 5.00 9.00 5.00 2.00 2.00 N.A. 2017 0.39 N.A. N.A. 0.30 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 2019 1.00 2.00 1.90 2.00 2018 N.A. N.A. 0.70 0.70 1.00 N.A. N.A. N.A. 2020 0.50 1.00 2.00 2019 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.30 N.A. N.A. 2021 1.00 4.00 1.00 2020 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.30 N.A. Total Bought by Vintage 19.05 17.00 12.00 11.00 17.50 19.00 9.00 7.50 8.90 5.00 2021 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 0.70 0.70 1.00 2022 2023 See R55 See V55 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Total CCAs 31.45 0.00 14.67 14.41 14.20 13.38 12.98 12.59 12.22 11.85 to try to transfer to 31.69 0.00 Z23 to AG 23 should all = 1.0. Use X12-X21 and Y14-Y21 to build Limited Exemptions. Compliance Acct by vintage Do Not Exceed Historical Verified Emissions Transfers will be deferred to the next year, Ensure x24
Most popular related searches