Delft-FEWS - Hydrological Forecasting And Warning System Brochure

SoftwareDelft-FEWSKeywords: Delft-FEWS, ForecastingThe development of hydrological forecasting and warning systems is an essential element inregional and national strategies. Recent developments in numerical weather prediction, radar dataand on-line meteorological and hydrological data collection have resulted in an increasing focus ondata import and data processing. The challenges for developing a modern hydrological forecastingand warning system are found in the integration of large data sets, specialised modules to processthe data, and open interfaces to allow easy integration of existing modelling capacities.In response to these challenges, Delft-FEWS provides a state of the art hydrological forecast andwarning system. The system is a sophisticated collection of modules designed for building ahydrological forecasting system customised to the specific requirements of an individualorganisation.The philosophy of the system is to provide an open shell for managing the data handling andforecasting process. This shell incorporates a comprehensive library of general data handlingutilities, allowing a wide range of external forecasting models to be integrated in the systemthrough a published open interface.Application of Delft-FEWS for the Severn Catchment, Midlands Region, UK (reproduced courtesy of the Environment Agency, UK)Delft FEWS, 2010The modular and highly configurable nature of the systemallows it to be used effectively both in rudimentary and highlycomplex systems and be adapted to a range of potentialapplications including flood forecasting, water qualityforecasting, groundwater management, real time controlapplications or simply used as a data respositoryScalabilityDelft-FEWS is a fully scalable system. It can be run as a self-contained manually driven forecasting system operating on anormal desktop computer, but can also be deployed as a fullyautomated distributed client-server application. The clientserver application allows further scaling through running timeconsuming tasks in parallel. The system applies the latestsoftware standards. It has been developed in using JavaTMtechnology, and is fully configurable through open XMLformatted configuration files. In the J2EE compliant Client-Server application, JMS is used to provide resilientcommunication between distributed system components.Connecting Delft-Fews to external datasourcesOf paramount importance in an operational flood forecastingsystem is an efficient connection to external data sources.Delft-FEWS provides import modules that allows import ofdata from external sources such as on-line meteorologicaldata or hydrological data from external databases. These datainclude for example time series obtained from telemetrysystems such as observed water levels, observedprecipitation, but also meteorological forecast data, radar dataand numerical weather predictions. Data are imported usingstandard interchange formats, such as CSV, XML, GRIB andASCII. The import of external data also supports ensembleweather predictions now commonly produced by a number ofmeteorological forecasting agencies.Delft-Fews contains allows the additional java libraries to beaccessed by the software giving organisations the opportunityto create their own import routines and connections to externaldata sources.Validating, interpolating andtransforming dataParticular emphasis is placed in Delft FEWS on qualitychecking of data obtained from external sources, usingextensive data validation options. Serial interpolation (gapfilling) is available to complete data series where required.Data hierarchy options allow alternative data sources to beused as a fallback, ensuring continuity of the forecastingprocess, even if available data is incomplete or inconsistent.Validation and interpolation will normally be automated, butuser intervention can also be configured.Another set of utilities is available for transforming data withdisparate spatial and temporal scales. This includes spatialinterpolation to derive for example areal weighted precipitationfrom spatially distributed point sources, or from spatial datasuch as radar data and numerical weather prediction models.Data transformation utilities also include methods for temporalaggregation and dis-aggregation, evaluation of simpleequations, and typical hydrological functions such as stage-discharge relationships and evaporation calculations.Delft-Fews also enables the use of the PCRaster language forcomplete control of grid manipulations within the system.Starting with simple forecasting modelsDelft-FEWS provides a number of modules to rapidly establisha simple forecasting system where hydrological and/orhydraulic models are not available, or are under development.This includes a correlation module that generates forecasts fora downstream location based on the correlation of events atthat location and a suitable upstream location. A lookup tablemodule can be used to derive warning levels on the basis of aheuristic combinations of critical conditions in the importeddata.Once more advanced models become available these simplemodules may be replaced. Alternatively these can be retainedfor comparison purposes, or as a backup should these modelsfail.Expanding to more advanced modellingThe philosophy of Delft-FEWS is to provide an open systemthat allows a wide range of existing forecasting models to beused. Thisconcept is supported by the general adapter module, whichcommunicates to external modules through an open XMLbased published interface, effectively allowing “plugging-in” ofpractically any forecasting model.An adapter between the native module data formats and theopen XML interface is typically required, and such adaptersare already available to support a wide range of hydraulic andhydrological models.Delft FEWS, 2010The great advantage of this open interface is that existinghydrological and hydraulic models and modelling capabilitiescan easilybe integrated in the forecasting system, without the need forexpensive re-modelling using a specific model.There are currently over 40 commercial software packagessupported by Delft-Fews including Delft-3D, HBV, HEC-RAS,ISIS, Mike11, Modflow, PDM, Sacramento, Sobek, SWMM,TopKapi and URBS.Using some of the advancedforecasting toolsDelft-FEWS provides a number of advanced forecasting toolsthat can be used in improving and assessing the quality offorecasts.This includes generic data assimilation methods such as anARMA based error correction module; a what-if scenario toolcan be used to quickly establish the effects of different inputscenarios; a performance module is also provided to assessthe accuracy of forecasting models used and provides apowerful set of analysis tools to assist post event analysis. Aflood mapping module can be used to project forecast levelsas flood extent maps.Viewing results and disseminatingforecastsDelft-FEWS provides easy to understand, advanced graphicaland map-based displays to help the user carry out therequired tasks for hydrological forecasting in a structured way.The interactive map display allows geographic navigation,while icons give the user rapid insight in warning levels beingreached.The time series display can be used to explore data further, oredit input data when necessary. Additional insight in thedynamics of a flood event may be gained through theanimated longitudinal profile and flood map displays.Forecast results can be disseminated through configurableHTML formatted reports, allowing easy communication torelevant authorities and public through intranet and internet.Configuring and deploying the Delft-FEWS systemThe system may either be used in a stand alone environment,where forecasts are run and analysed manually, or as a J2EEcompliant client-server application. Established standardssuch as Java Messaging Service (JMS) ensure smooth andresilient communication between clients and servers.In the client-server configuration, the heart of the system is themaster controller, which manages the forecasting process andschedules all forecasting runs. Forecasting modules are runon dedicated forecasting shell servers. For most forecastingsystems one forecasting shell server may be adequate, butthe system is fully scalable, and where required multipleforecasting shell servers may be applied to processforecasting tasks in parallel.Duty Forecasters access the forecasting system through clientsoftware, allowing full control whether in the office, or at homeconnected through a Modem. Reports generated by thesystem showing relevant forecasting results may be accessedby relevant authorities, emergency services, or even thegeneral public through the web server connected toInternet/Intranet.System application and trainingDeltares will normally be closely involved with the client insetting up Delft-FEWS as an operational flood forecastingsystem in combination with a comprehensive trainingprogramme on the operation and maintenance of the system.In-depth training courses are available, teaching users notonly how to use the system, but also how to independentlyadd new models to the system and customise Delft-FEWS tothe changing requirements of an operational system.Sample of applications and ongoingprojectsCommunity Hydrological Prediction System (CHPS), USA:Fews provides the cornerstone of the National WeatherServices, pilot operational hydrological forecasting platformFEWS Mekong: An operational flood forecasting system forthe Mekong, delivered to the Mekong River Commission.NFFS: Development of Delft-FEWS as the National FloodForecasting System, commissioned by the EnvironmentAgency for operational forecasting across England & Wales.Water Information System, NL: An operational watermanagement system, delivered to a number of water boardsin the Netherlands.Delft FEWS, 2010DeltaresInnovative solutions for water andsubsurface issuesFews Product Management Rotterdamseweg 185, P.O. Box 177 info@deltares.nlT +31 (88) 33 58 273 2600 MH Delft www.deltares.nlE Fews-PM@deltares.nlNational Groundwater Modelling System: Developed to Delft-Fews system to manage interactive scenarios for groundwatermanagement in England and Wales.Water quality and flow forecasting system: commissioned bythe Public Utilities Board, SingaporeDelft-Fews is now used operationally in more than 20countries worldwide.