Quantifying Dematerialization

Reducing environmental pressureby dematerialisationAn analysis of the environmental load caused byDutch production and consumptionin relation to the use of materialsFinal report November 2000Contracted by:VROM-DGMHenk StrietmanExecuted by:PRé Consultants B.V.Mark Goedkoop, Renilde Spriensma and Suzanne EfftingDematerialsation November 2000 PRé ConsultantsContentsBRIEF SUMMARY...........................................................................................1EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .....................................................................................2STEP 1: ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC SECTORS................................................................................3STEP 2: ANALYSIS OF MATERIAL FLOWS ..................................................................................3CONSUMPTION, PRODUCTION, IMPORTS AND EXPORTS....................................................................6RECOMMENDATIONS ......................................................................................................61 INTRODUCTION.....................................................................................71.1 REASONS FOR AND AIM OF THE STUDY ............................................................................71.2 STUDY PLAN......................................................................................................71.3 PROCEDURE ......................................................................................................92 BACKGROUND .................................................................................... 112.1 SECTOR CLASSIFICATION AND PROCESSING ...................................................................... 112.2 METHODS ...................................................................................................... 162.3 ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITATIONS ................................................................................ 163 PRODUCTION IN THE NETHERLANDS ............................................................. 183.1 ENVIRONMENTAL LOAD FROM DUTCH PRODUCTION.............................................................. 184 CONSUMPTION IN THE NETHERLANDS............................................................ 214.1 ENVIRONMENTAL LOAD FROM DUTCH CONSUMPTION ............................................................ 214.2 REMARKS ON THE APPROACH TO ENVIRONMENTAL LOAD ABROAD................................................ 215 RESULTS: THE QUESTIONS ANSWERED ........................................................... 245.1 QUESTION 1 : WHAT ARE THE ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS FROM EXTRACTION, PRODUCTION OR CULTIVATION IN THECOUNTRY OF ORIGIN?................................................................................................... 245.2 QUESTION 2: WHAT IS THE ENVIRONMENTAL LOAD FROM TRANSPORT OF IMPORTS ? ............................ 275.3 QUESTION 3: WHAT IS THE ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECT OF PROCESSING MATERIALS ?.............................. 275.4 QUESTIONS 4 AND 5: WHAT IS THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROFIT TO BE GAINED FROM REDUCING THE USE OF MATERIALS,AND WHAT IS THE DANGER THAT PROBLEMS ARE SHIFTED ELSEWHERE ? ................................................. 285.5 EXAMPLES OF SIX MATERIAL OR SERVICE FLOWS ................................................................. 305.6 QUESTIONS 6 AND 7: WHAT ARE THE POSSIBILITIES FOR A NEW POLICY IN THE NETHERLANDS, AND MUST THAT BETUNED TO INTERNATIONAL REQUIREMENTS?............................................................................. 366 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS.......................................................... 406.1 CONCLUSIONS .................................................................................................. 406.2 RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................................ 40REFERENCES (TRANSLATED WHEN NECESSARY FOR AN ENGLISH AUDIENCE) ............................... 411 ANNEXE 1 THE ECO-INDICATOR 99 METHODOLOGY...............................................11.1 THREE STEPS .....................................................................................................11.2 WEIGHTING (STEP 3).............................................................................................11.3 THE DAMAGE MODEL (STEP 2)....................................................................................21.4 INVENTORY OF THE PROCESSES (STEP 1) .........................................................................5LITERATURE FOR THIS ANNEXE........................................................................5Dematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants1Brief summaryThis study describes the development of a method for the quantitative analysis of environmentalload from material and service flows in the Dutch economy. The method has been developed toanswer the question: what is the environmental load for a number of material flows inside andoutside the Netherlands. VROM (Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment)specified which material flows were to be assessed.Using this method, it is possible to determine which flow causes a relatively high environmentalload and which a relatively low load. In order to illustrate the principle of the method, five materialflows and one service flow have been examined. In principle, it is relatively easy to estimate allmaterial and service flows with the data provided.The principle of the method is as follows:1. A database was prepared with data from a large number (maximum of 400) of emissions and rawmaterial extractions for the 59 Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) sectors as defined in 1993. Theemission data were taken from the Emissions Register. The choice of using somewhat olderfigures was made due to restrictions on time and budget in this study.2. The ratio between the added value in a sector and the environmental load of that sector can beestimated from the data. From this, the environmental load per earned guilder can be derivedfor each sector. The Eco-indicator 99 method was used for determination of the environmentalload as a single figure. This method was developed under commission of VROM as a weightingmethod for environmental product policy.3. It is possible to find out which sector supplies how much to another sector from the input-output table of the CBS. In this way, the material flow, expressed in guilders, can be followedthrough a number of sectors. Because the environmental load per earned guilder in each sectorhas been determined in Step 2, the environmental load can be linked with the materials flow. Inthis way, in principle the environmental load from each material flow in the economy can befollowed and the results can be illustrated using the so-called E2 vector. This same analysis canalso be applied to service flows.The method is unusual in that all material flows can be compared to each other, because all theenvironmental loads are determined per unit of added value or, put more simply, per earnedguilder. The idea behind this is that the purpose of a national economy is to create value or earnmoney.Using the results from this method, it is possible to develop a policy that stimulates materials andservices flows that cause little environmental load per added value, instead of flows with lessoptional ratios. In Chapter 5, a number of recommendations are made for the development thefoundations of such a policy. In this process an attempt is made to refer from materials flows backto the economic sectors. This is because material flows usually do not have a point of contact,while industrial sectors have this.Dematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants2Executive summaryFor at least a decade, people have been working towards an environmentally responsible design ofproducts, the so-called 'eco-design' concept. It appears that by taking account of a product's wholelifetime environmental load during its design, an reduction of the environmental load of 30 to 50%can be achieved. The environmental benefit is in this case related to a certain level of functionfulfilment by the product. One refers to the environmental load per functional unit. Examples of afunctional unit are:• The packaging and distribution of 1000 litres of milk, by making a comparison between milkcartons and milk bottles, or the development of an alternative packaging;• Production of a certain amount of light, for the comparison between light bulbs and fluorescenttubes:• Making 10 cups of coffee using an automatic coffee machine, when redesigning a machine.The disadvantage of using a functional unit is that the effect on the society at large is not takeninto account at all. Thus, it could be that due to design improvements and increased affluence,many more economy lamps are used and that they are used for a much longer time, because theenergy costs are relatively low. There are therefore clear restrictions to the eco-design perspective.In order to be able to analyse the effects a environmental product policy on society at large, it isusefull to adopt an macro-economic approach in the analysis of the life cycles of products. In thatcase, it is impractical to analyse all products for each functional unit, because there will just be toomany (estimates are circulating of at least 6 million different product designs found in the Westerneconomy).In this study we have chosen not to look at products, but rather at materials and services flows. Thisis, of course, only a partial solution because there are also a very large number of differentmaterials and services, but it is possible to group them into fairly homogeneous flows. Thus, onecan refer to agricultural products, ferro-metals and wood, with the knowledge that, within thesegroups, all sorts of different supply types and complex products can be found.It is in itself not difficult to determine the environmental load of the production and processing of akilo of steel; there are enough LCA (Life Cycle Assessment) databases available for this purpose. Themethods developed have a lot of common ground with the LCA methodology, but there is animportant difference in the selection of comparison basis and the approach to data-collection.In the method developed here, the environmental load per earned guilder is determined. The ideabehind this is that the Dutch economy will keep growing and that more and more guilders (or euros)will be earned1. If the environmental pressure must be reduced, it is necessary that theenvironmental pressure per earned guilder is decreased. In LCA terms, we therefore call the earnedguilder the functional unit of the economy. This functional unit can also be applied to economicsectors and, as in the final goal of this study, to material flows. We have analysed theenvironmental load per earned guilder for each material flow.Using the earned guilder as a monetary unit has the great advantage that all economic activities andmaterial flows can be compared with each other. A disadvantage is that all kinds of non-economicactivities are outside the scope of the analysis. Although increased consumption boosts all economicactivities, consumption itself is not taken into account, because consumption does not add value.Strictly speaking, we can consider consumption as an activity with a negative value. All goods andservices provided to the consumer lose almost all their economic value. What remains are second-hand articles and waste. Even waste processing cannot be included properly within this systembecause one cannot speak of waste delivery as a product.There are two steps in the analysis: first, in each economic sector, the environmental load perearned guilder is calculated; then, the material and service flows between the sectors are analysed.Based on this, the environmental load per earned guilder for each material flow can be determined.Further explanation of these steps is given below. 1 One guilder is 0,4538 EuroDematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants3Step 1: Analysis of economic sectorsIn the first step the environmental load per earned guilder in one economic sector is calculated,using a combination of economic data from the CBS and environmental load data from the DutchEmissions Register and some other information sources.From these data themselves, interesting conclusions can already be drawn with regard to whicheconomic sectors cause much or little environmental load per earned guilder. It appears thatmaterials-intensive sectors (such as basic chemistry, oil refineries, agriculture, horticulture andforestry) show a relatively high environmental load per earned guilder, whereas service sectorscause relatively little environmental load per earned guilder. It should be noted that a number ofimportant service sectors (transport, general service provision, etc.) cause a relatively high level ofenvironmental load compared to the cleaner sectors of industry. Industrial sectors showing arelatively favourable environmental load per earned guilder are, for example, precision engineeringand other high-tech sectors.In figure S1 below, the economic values and the environmental loads for 60 sectors are shownagainst each other as the E2 vector, a concept developed by [Goedkoop et al. 1999]. Thecumulative economic value of the material flow is plotted against the cumulative environmentalload of the material flow, with each vector representing one sector.The ratio between the environmental load and the earned guilder is shown by the slope of the line,with the relative importance shown by the length of the line. It can be seen that only a limitednumber of sectors have a significant economic value or environmental load. It is clear that thesesectors deserve a great deal of attention during the development of a national policy.Summary0,00E+005,00E+081,00E+091,50E+092,00E+092,50E+093,00E+093,50E+094,00E+094,50E+095,00E+090 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 70.000 80.000Added value (in million guilders)Environmental load (Pt)Agriculture, horticulture, forestryElectricity generationnTransport and storage companiesWholesalers and retailersChemical Basic products ind.Business and servicesBasic metal industryFigure S1: Summary of the E2 vectors of sectors in Dutch productiony. Although there could be 66vectors in this figure, only the significant vectors have been shown.Step 2: Analysis of material flowsThe data in figure S1 are interesting and 'dangerous', because sectors do not exist in isolation butare completely interdependent. The second part of the method consists of also analysing theseinterdependences, especially supplies between the sectors. By following these supplies, thematerial flows and service flows can be depicted. For these supplies, we use the input-output tablethat the CBS maintains annually for the Dutch economy.Dematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants4Agriculture,horticulture &forestry sectorMilk & dairyproducts industryTransportsectorEnvironmentalload perguilder=aEnvironmentalload perguilder =bEnvironmentalload perguilder =cSectorpurchases forp guildersSector deliversmaterials for qguildersFigure S2: Illustration of the manner by which sectors can be linked, to enable calculation of theeffects of material flows. In this simplified example, the supply of goods from the agriculture,horticulture and forestry sector to the milk and dairy products industry is taken as an example of amaterial flow. For each sector, the size of supply and environmental load are calculated perguilder.From the input-output table, we can determine for example how much the agriculture, horticultureand forestry sector supplies to its two largest customers, the dairy and food-processing industries. Itis also difficult to find out that the most important supplies to this sector originate from thetransport, gas distribution and cereal processing industries, and imports are also involved.Because it is known what the environmental load per earned guilder is for all these sectors, we canmake an E2 vector diagram showing this entire material flow (see figure S3).Agriculture, horticulture and forestry products in the Netherlands as supplied to the two largest consumers0,00E+005,00E+081,00E+091,50E+092,00E+092,50E+093,00E+090 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 35.000Added value (in million guilders)Environmental load (Pt) Cereal processingGas distributorImportsAgriculture, horticulture and forestryAbattoirs & Meat processingMilk and dairy productsTransport (imports)Figure S3: The ratio between environmental load and added value for the material flow ofagriculture, horticulture and forestry products, as supplied to the two most important customers.The sequence of vectors is relatively random; the input-output table allows us to determine onlyhow much is supplied, but not in what sequence that occurs.An important conclusion can be drawn from this figure: the environmental load per earned guilderfor the agriculture, horticulture and forestry SECTOR itself (240 millipoints per guilder) isconsiderably less favourable than the environmental load for the MATERIAL FLOW (83 millipoints perguilder); a 3-fold difference. Similar analyses have been made for four other material flows, sandand gravel, coal, chemical end products and aluminium. In addition, for experimental purposes, wehave made a diagram for the service flow of insurance to the consumer (the E2 vector for thisservice flow can be seen in figure S4).Dematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants5Insurance, as delivered to the largest customer (the consumer)0,00E+001,00E+072,00E+073,00E+074,00E+075,00E+076,00E+077,00E+070 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 6.000 7.000Added value (in million guilders)Environmental load (Pt)ConsumersInsuranceTransport (imports)ImportsBankingBusiness services CFigure S4: Ratio between added value and environmental load for service flow 'insurance'.Analysis of the service flow 'insurance' shows that, although the insurance sector itself has a verylow environmental load per guilder, the environmental load per earned guilder for the entireservice flow in considerably more unfavourable. This is due to the materials (e.g., paper, PCs andoffice supplies) are supplied from abroad.This leads to the important conclusion that policy aimed at SECTORS can lead to differentpriorities than policy aimed at material or service FLOWS.In figure S5, the resulting E2 vectors for the material and service flows examined are showndiagrammatically.Summary0,00E+001,00E+082,00E+083,00E+084,00E+085,00E+086,00E+087,00E+088,00E+089,00E+081,00E+090 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000Added value (in million guilders)Environmental load (Pt)Coal, as supplied to the three largestconsumersChemical end products, as supplied tothe largest buyer (the consumer)Aluminium, as supplied to the four largestcustomersInsurance as deliverd to the largestcustomer (the consumer)Sand and gravel, as supplied to the threelargest customersAgriculture, horticulture & forestryproducts in the Netherlands, as suppliedto the tw o largest customers2,4E9 Pt;28.800 million guildersFigure S5: Ratio between added value and environmental load for the material and service flowsstudied. In a number of cases, only a limited part of the flow has been analysed.Dematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants6Consumption, production, imports and exportsIn the methods we use, a division has been made between two policy aims:1. Environmental load caused by industrial activities in the Netherlands;2. Environmental load caused by Dutch consumers.When analysing Dutch consumption, imports into the Netherlands have been taken into account, butexports have not. For the environmental effect of imports, two assumptions have been made:• For imported products which can also be made in the Netherlands, we assume that the sameenvironmental effects will occur abroad. These are called 'competitive' imports;• For imported products that are not made in the Netherlands (coffee, ores, etc.), additional datawas collected regarding processes abroad, especially from LCA databases.For the environmental effects from transport concerned with imports, additional data have alsobeen collected from LCA studies.From the analysis of the consumption pattern, two interesting conclusions can be drawn:1. Although the Netherlands causes a considerable environmental load abroad, foreign countriescause more environmental load in the Netherlands. This is a very different conclusion to thatfrom analysis according to the 'Ecological Footprint' method.2. Imports especially from developing countries have a far less favourable ratio between value andenvironmental load than for the average Dutch consumption. The difference is a factor of ten.Evidently, the Netherlands gives these countries a high environmental load without thesecountries being able to earn much from it. This seems to be in direct opposition to the policyplanning on this point.RecommendationsThe method developed in this report has only been applied to six fairly random material and serviceflows. It has been shown that the method is useful and can lead to very interesting conclusions. It isin fact too early to draw up recommendations based on these casually chosen flows. Therefore, werecommend that many more material and service flows are analysed, preferably using a simplesoftware.From this analysis, a number of material flows can be selected with a favourable or unfavourableratio between environmental load and value. Next, it is possible to trace which sectors influencethese flows. As previously mentioned, material flows do not have point of contact, whereaseconomic sectors generally do. Together with the sector, specific measures can be developed.International coordination is necessary. For further analysis, we refer to the analysis of [te Riele2000] whose study appeared at about the same time as ours.Dematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants71 Introduction1.1 Reasons for and aim of the studyDuring discussions on the VROM budget in November 1999, a majority in the Dutch parliamentdicussed 'dematerialisation'. It was referenced to as a promising perspective for development of asustainable society that deserves more attention and need to be elaborated on.'Dematerialisation' can be described as 'reduction of environmental pressure by reduction in the useof materials, combined with a constant need fulfilment. On the macro-level, this can be translatedinto a reduction of environmental pressure from materials at a certain level of economic growth.Economic growth is used here as a proxy for fulfilling needs on the macro-level. With this, we followthe term 'eco-efficiency' as used by various foreign authors [Cleveland, 1999].Dematerialisation is still a vague concept without a clear definition. Various policies alreadycontribute to the dematerialisation of the economy. Examples are prevention of waste, ecodesignand promotion of recycling and re-use. In order assess in which way policy in the area ofdematerialisation can be useful an exploratory research effort is needed into the possibilities forreducing the environmental load from materials in the Netherlands.This study aims to gain insight on the macro-scale throughout the Netherlands into the potentialquantitative effects of dematerialisation.In this study, we looked for an answer to the following questions for the most important materialflows in the Dutch economy:1. What are the environmental effects of the extraction and production of raw materials in theircountry of origin?2. What are the environmental effects of the transport of raw materials?3. What are the environmental effects of processing the raw materials?4. What environmental profit can be gained by reducing the use of materials and what is the riskthat the problem will just be shifted elsewhere?5. What are the possibilities for Dutch policy and should they be developed nationally and/orinternationally?1.2 Study plan1.2.1 Definition of research areaThe environmental pressure from materials in the Netherlands can be considered in two ways:1. Material input as a result of all economic activities within the borders of the Netherlands (calledthe 'production' pattern).2. Material input as a result of consumption in the Netherlands (called the 'consumption' pattern).The difference between these two patterns lies especially in the way import and export takesplace. In the first case (production), the environmental load from all activities that are performedby companies within the Netherlands are included, and this includes exports from these companies,but excludes imports. The environmental load due to extraction, crop production and transport ofmaterials abroad for the benefit of Dutch industry is not in principle included. The productionpattern says something about the activities of Dutch industry, i.e., the environmental load causedin the Netherlands.In the second case (consumption), the environmental load occurs by Dutch use, consisting of Dutchproduction and imports that can be included in calculations of consumption in the Netherlands.Exports are not included because they are not significantly influenced by this consumption.In this study, we have looked at both lines of policy: Dutch industry and Dutch consumers. Theproduction pattern is mainly interesting when the government intends to implementdematerialisation into their industry policy and in this way reduce the environmental pressure. Anexample is influencing the location policy for industrial activities. The consumption pattern ismainly interesting when the government wants to influence the Dutch consumer to reduce theenvironmental pressure from consumption. By this, the environmental pressure from the Dutchconsumer in foreign countries can also be included.Dematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants81.2.2 Definition of environmental pressure from materialsEnvironmental pressure, or in other words the environmental load from a process or material, canbe defined in various ways: release of toxic emissions, use of primary material, use of energy, useof land, etc. In this study, environmental pressure is considered in a broad context, namely as thetotal environmental load. The study is aimed at considering all environmental effects as defined inthe Eco-indicator 99 method (see also Chapter 2.2):? effects on human health (greenhouse effect, photochemical smog, UV radiation by changes inthe ozone layer, carcinogenic substances, respiratory symptoms from dust and inorganicmaterials, radioactive radiation);? effects on ecosystems (land use, toxic substances, acidification/eutrophication);? depletion of a-biotic raw materials (minerals and fossil fuels).Environmental pressure from material flows is related to a large number of economic activities thatall cause an environmental load: extraction, production, cultivation, various materials processingsteps, use of material for consumer goods or industrial applications, and the processing of waste.Analysing a material flow like non-ferro metals means analysis of processes from thousands ofindividual products. In the framework of this study, aimed at investigating the environmentalpressure of the most important material flows within the Dutch economy and the possibilities forpolicy, analysing at a similarly detailed level is not possible. Therefore, in this study, environmentalpressure from material flows is considered by identifying the industrial, service and social sectorsthat are linked to the material flows. The environmental load of the sectors can then be used as anapproach towards the environmental load of the material flows.Because the needed environmental data from the various sectors are largely already available fromprevious studies, this relatively small result project could achieve interesting results1.2.3 Use of data from earlier studyIn this study, use has been made of data that were collected together in an earlier study sponsoredby RIZA and VROM (see [Blonk et al., 1997]). The study of Blonk et al. was aimed at the collection ofnormalisation data for application in LCA. The study, performed in cooperation with IVAM(Environmental Research, University of Amsterdam) and the research group WNS of the University ofUtrecht, resulted in an analysis of the environmental load on three levels:1. Total environmental load within the Netherlands territory (thus, excluding environmental loadcaused by the Netherlands in foreign countries);2. Total environmental load from consumption in the Netherlands (thus, including environmentalload resulting from imports and excluding environmental load from exports);3. Total environmental load within the territory of Europe.In the report by Blonk and colleagues [Blonk et al., 1997], they used the Dutch Emission Registerand data from LEI (Institute for Agriculture and Economics) and CBS on the use of pesticides and theconsumption of raw materials for determining the total environmental load within the territory ofthe Netherlands. The Dutch Emission Register of 1993/94 was used as a basis [NER, 1995]; theRegister is very detailed and complete and for that reason it is unique. In Blonk's report, they madea link between the Dutch input-output table and the Emission Register for the environmental loadfrom consumption in the Netherlands. In the input-output table, the values for supplying betweensectors are maintained, and include the Dutch consumer, and imports and exports as 'sectors'. Fromthis, it is therefore possible to find out which part of industrial production in a sector and whichpart of imports is supplied to the consumer and which part is exported.It is possible to link the Emission Register and the input-output table maintained by the CBS becausethe Emission Register specifies the environmental load per industrial sector. The material flows thatare interesting from a policy viewpoint can all be located therein. In the table below, the relationbetween the material flows and the sections are shown; the figures correspond to the sectors in thetable in section 2.1.Dematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants9Material flow interesting from a policyviewpointSector causing this flowAgricultural products and foodstuffs 1, 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 15, 16Solid fuels non-competitive import: coalsCrude oil and oil products 3, 25Ores and metal residues 30Metals 31, 32Minerals and building materials 29Fertilisers 26 (partial)Chemical products 26, 27Consumer products 27, 34, etc.Table 1.1: Links between material flows and sectors from the CBSThe material flows are exceptionally comprehensive. From table 1.1, it can be seen that a materialflow be split up into a large number of smaller flows (especially foodstuffs). This means that we canexamine the data of the sectors in greater detail, even though the complexity is greatly enhanced,because more parallel chains occur that have very many relationships with each other in the form ofexchange of products and materials.From the previous study, detailed emission data are available for each industry or service sectorand for the consumer. Based on this, we can calculate the environmental load from Dutchconsumption and production, for all important economic sectors (total of 58), including the servicesectors. For each sector, about 400 emissions and raw materials can be included.The data related to environmental load from the sectors can be combined with financial data fromthe national accounts of the CBS [CBS, 1993], the so-called input-output tables. In this way, we canascertain for a specific sector the environmental load per guilder of added value; this ratio is calledthe E2 vector. The concept of the E2 vectors originated in the project 'Product Service Systems'[Goedkoop et al., 1999], in which the authors showed which sectors and the appropriate materialflows gave the highest and lowest environmental load per earned guilder. In order to reduce thetotal environmental load from Dutch consumption and production, the growth of the sectors thatcause environmental pollution without providing much value to the economy, for example, shouldbe decreased, while sectors showing little environmental load per earned guilder could bestimulated.With the aid of data from the CBS over specific use of products and materials and the accompanyingvalue of the goods in the various sectors [CBS, 1996], the environmental load of the sectors can belinked to specific material flows, giving more insight into the environmental load of the materialinput.With the aid of the financial data in the input-output tables, we can also determine which sectorssupply to each other and what value that supply yields. From this, for a particular sector, theenvironmental load of a chain of successive activities that are related to a specific material flowcan be analysed. This chain approach for material and service flows was worked out with the aid ofthe concept of E2 vectors, by which the various steps in the chain are 'added together'.1.3 ProcedureIn order to make the existing data suitable for analysis, a certain number of procedures andadditions were made:? The existing data were linked to the Eco-indicator 99 method in order to generate singleenvironmental scores per sector, and data for land use were added;? The quality of the emission data from non-competitive imports was insufficient and a new, morerepresentative inventory was made of the environmental load for these imports. The inventoryfor coffee, tea and tobacco crops was performed on the basis of data that were available on theInternet. Data on cocoa, coal, aluminium and zinc were taken from the SimaPro database [PRédatabase] [Buwal 1998].? Data related to land use were added to the data for all sectors; land use for the industrialsectors was estimated from the CBS [CBS, 1994, table on invested capital in areas on 1 January1993], with an assumption that the ground price for industrial areas was then ƒ 100.- per squareDematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants10metre. This estimate led to the conclusion that two-thirds of the built-up area minus the areafor house building was taken up by industrial activities. The rest of the built-up area is used bythe government or for trading, financial institutions and other non-industrial companies orgovernment. Land use in these sectors was estimated on the basis of the average turnover persquare metre, based on the report of [van Leeuwen et al. 1998]. Land use for the buildingsector, consumers and direct traffic and transport was estimated on the basis of land use forbuilding sites, residential areas and traffic areas, respectively [CBS, 1999]. Land use for non-competitive imports originated from the Internet, or from [Goedkoop and Lindeijer, 1999].? In the analysis of environmental load from consumption from the Normalisation study [Blonk etal., 1997], the environmental load of imports was estimated from the environmental load of theDutch sectors. In this, transport of goods from their country of origin to the Netherlands was nottaken into account. For this study, international transport of imports for completion of theconsumption pattern, is determined by a combination of:? data on weight, value and origin of Dutch imports [Harjono et al., 1996];? data on international transport and use of transport media [OECD, 1995];[EEA, 1995];? data on emissions from transport media per tkm [Buwal, 1998];? CBS data on imports in specific sectors [CBS, 1996].Subsequently, the following analyses were performed:1. Analysis of the environmental pressure from the Dutch industrial sectors in Eco-indicator 99points (total environmental load from sectors); analysis of the added value of the sectors;analysis of the environmental load per guilder added value;2. Analysis of the environmental pressure from Dutch consumption in Eco-indicator 99 points. Forthis, the contribution from Dutch production, competitive and non-competitive imports (ascalculated in the study of [Blonk et al. 1997]) were used to determine which part of the sectorscan be attributed to Dutch consumption.3. Analysis of the environmental load from a number of specific material flows from the sectorsthat link these flows together, using the input-output table of [CBS 1993].Finally, an analysis was made of existing policy for dematerialisation, and based on these results thepossibilities for new policy are sketched.Dematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants112 Background2.1 Sector classification and processing2.1.1 Basic data on productionIn table 2.1, a summary is given of the industrial, service, consumer and non-competitive importssectors. Sectors 1 to 59 encompass the Dutch industrial and service sectors used by the CBS in theirnational calculations. Using these 59 sectors, the production pattern can be calculated. The othersectors are the consumer sectors (traffic and direct transport) and non-competitive imports, bywhich the consumption pattern can be calculated (see section 2.1.2).Data from the Emission Register, as provided for each company group or target group, are classifiedaccording to the SBI (Standard Company Classification) codes into the CBS sectors.The following important points should be noted during interpretation of the results for theindividual sectors:? The environmental data from the above-mentioned individual sectors are typically process data,i.e., environmental load that occurs due to the processes that take place in that sector. Formost sectors that purchase and process, this means the emissions and other environmentalfactors from processing materials into products and semi-manufactured goods. Theenvironmental load from raw materials and additives processed in these sectors is found in thesectors that produce, cultivate or extract these products. In many cases, this production takesplace outside the Netherlands.? In sector 1 'agriculture, horticulture and forestry', CBS has combined arable farming,horticulture, cattle farming, market gardening, agricultural services, forestry and hunting. Thefoodstuffs industry, which processes the products from sector 1, is in contrast divided up into alarge number of sectors (5 to 13). The foodstuffs industry also imports a great deal of their rawmaterials, which are not included in the results for production within the Netherlands, but areincluded in consumption for the Netherlands, insofar as these imports can be attributed to theconsumer.? For the material flow 'animal feeder', this must be looked for within the sector 'cerealprocessing', in which the preparation of animal feed is included. This sector supplies animalfeed to the stock farmers in sector 1. A great deal of animal feed arises from processing offeedstuffs as leftovers. From this country and others, a lot of material is provided to this sectorfor the preparation of animal feed from arable farming and sectors 5 to 13 'foodstuffprocessing'.? The raw materials (especially minerals) for construction come from the sector 'general mineralextraction'. The production of building materials falls under the sector 'building materials,stoneware and glass'. The sector 'construction and installation' includes land clearance, civil andutility construction, soil, water and road construction, building installation, building finishing,and the hire of construction and demolition equipment.? Sector 44 'shipping and aviation' includes the costs and revenues from enterprises within Dutchborders that are involved in sea and air transport. The environmental data from the EmissionRegister for aviation includes emissions from all take-offs and landings at Amsterdam-Schipholairport and emissions from shipping within Dutch territorial waters.? The sector 'general transport and storage' includes inland waterways, goods transport, transportby pipeline, service provision for transport by land, water and air, and travel agencies.? Waste processing falls under the sector 57 'general services'.Dematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants12No. Sector CBS 19931 Agriculture, horticulture and forestry2 Fishing3 Petroleum and gas extraction4 General mineral extraction5 Abattoirs and meat products6 Milk and dairy products7 Fish, vegetable, and fruit processing8 Cereal processing9 Sugar preparation10 Flower processing11 Cocoa, chocolate and sugar12 Margarine, starch and general foodstuffs13 Drinks14 Tobacco processing15 Wool16 Cotton17 Tights and stockings18 Textiles (general)19 Clothing20 Leather, shoe and other leather goods21 Wood and furniture22 Paper and cardboard23 Paper products and corrugated cardboard24 Graphics and publishing25 Oil refineries26 Chemical basic products27 Chemical end products28 Rubber and plastics processing29 Building materials, stoneware and glass30 Basic metals31 Metal products32 Machine manufacture33 Electromechanical34 Cars35 Transport media (general)36 Instruments, optical and general37 Electricity generation38 Gas distribution39 Water supply40 Construction and installation41 Wholesalers and retailers42 Hotels, restaurants, cafes, etc.43 Repairs44 Shipping and aviation45 General transport and storage46 Communications47 Banking48 Insurance49 Real estate agents50 Business services51 Government, civil52 Government, military53 Government, public and special subsidisededucation54 Social services55 Health and veterinary services56 Culture, sport and recreation57 General services58 Private households with own staff59 Goods and services not divided as to originTraffic and direct transportPrivate consumptionCocoa beans, coffee, tea and tobacco (892kton, import 1994)Coal (13395 mln kg, Dutch use 1994)Aluminium, apparent use 1993, 300 ktonIron, apparent use 1993, 3000 ktonZinc, apparent use 1993, 106 ktonTable 2.1 : Sector classification according to CBS plus the newly defined sectors related toconsumption in the Netherlands. Source: [Blonk et al. 1997].Dematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants132.1.2 Basic data on consumptionIn addition to the existing inventories of the industrial sectors, separate inventories have beenmade for the consumer sectors and non-competitive imports:? The consumer sector 'traffic and transport' consists of emissions from both private cars andrecreation boating.? For the consumer sector 'private consumption', the emissions from the target group 'consumers'from the Emission Register were used.? The non-competitive imports were determined according to the CBS definition: all goods thatcannot be produced in the Netherlands and for which there is no substitute in the Netherlands.All other imports are in principle in competition with Dutch products. Thus, the category 'non-competitive imports' includes a very limited number of goods: tobacco, cocoa, coffee, tea, iron,aluminium and coal. CBS has very wide acceptance criteria for substitutes, e.g., an importedkiwi fruit and a Dutch apple can substitute for one another; thus, kiwi fruit does not fall under'non-competitive imports'.? Competitive imports include, in fact, all other imported goods; in almost all sectors, significantamounts of foreign goods and services are purchased.For calculation of the allocation of environmental load from sectors and imports to consumption inthe Netherlands, the following procedures were performed (see [Blonk et al., 1997], for a moredetailed description):1. Which part of Dutch production can be attributed to the consumer per sector was determinedusing input-output analysis, based on the final demand from the consumer. A fraction isdetermined for each sector. Similarly for competitive imports.2. The ratio between the value of total imports from a foreign sector and the value of the totalproduction within the Netherlands from a comparable sector was used to determine theenvironmental load from the foreign sectors that can be attributed to the consumer. For this,we have assumed that for competitive imports the environmental load per guilder of outputfrom a foreign sector is the same as the output in a comparable Dutch sector.3. The contribution of non-competitive imports was determined in guilders based on the finaldemand from the consumer for the relevant goods.2.1.3 Example analysisFor the analyses, use was always made of two important pieces of data for each sector:1. The total environmental load from the sector in Eco-indicator 99 points;2. The added value of a sector, calculated from the input-output table from all costs within asector (the total yield of the sector minus the total use from within the Netherlands, i.e., allcosts).The results for a sector are usually given as Pt per guilder.In figures 2.1 and 2.2, the total environmental load and the total added value are given for theDutch industrial and service sectors for the production pattern, by successive sector number. Thered bars represent industry and the blue bars represent service companies and organisations. Whenthe figures are compared, it is clear that the service sectors in general have a high added value andshow little environmental load, whereas industrial sectors in general have a much lower addedvalue combined with a higher level of environmental load.In Chapters 3 and 4, we shall discuss further the environmental load and added value per sector forthe production and consumption patterns.In Chapter 5, these data are used in a chain approach for a number of important material andservice flows.Dematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants14Indicatorscores from production [Pt]0,E+005,E+081,E+092,E+092,E+093,E+093,E+09Agriculture, horticulture & forestry 1Fisheries 2Oil & gas extraction 3General mineral extraction 4Abattoirs & meat products 5Milk & dairy products 6Fish, vegetable & fruit processing 7Cereal processing 8Sugar 9Flour processing 10Cocoa, chocolate & sugar processing 11Margarine, starch & other foodstuffs 12Drinks 13Tobacco processing 14Wool 15Cotton 16Tights & stockings 17Textiles (general) 18Clothing 19Shoes & other leather goods 20Wood & furniture 21Paper & cardboard 22Paper goods & corrugated cardboard 23Graphics & publishing 24Petroleum 25Chemical basic products 26Chemical end products 27Rubber & plastics processing 28Building materials, stoneware & glass 29Basic metals 30Metal products 31Machinery 32Electromechanical 33Cars 34Transport media (general) 35Instruments, optics & others 36Electricity (generation & distribution) 37Gas distribution 38Water supply 39Construction & installation 40Wholesalers & retailers 41Hotels, restaurants, cafes, etc. 42Repairs for used goods 43Shipping & aviation 44General transport & storage 45Communication 46Banking 47Insurance 48Real estate exploitation 49Business services 50Government, civil 51Government, military 52Government, public & special subsidised education 53Social services 54Health & veterinary services 55Culture, sport and recreation 56General services 57Private households with own staff 58Miscellaneous goods & services 594,34E+09Figure 2.1: Environmental load in Eco-indicator 99 points from the Dutch production per sectorDematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants15Added value (in million guilders)0,E+001,E+042,E+043,E+044,E+045,E+046,E+047,E+048,E+04Agriculture, horticulture & forestry 1Fisheries 2Oil & gas extraction 3General mineral extraction 4Abattoirs & meat products 5Milk & dairy products 6Fish, vegetable & fruit processing 7Cereal processing 8Sugar 9Flour processing 10Cocoa, chocolate & sugar processing 11Margarine, starch & other foodstuffs 12Drinks 13Tobacco processing 14Wool 15Cotton 16Tights & stockings 17Textiles (general) 18Clothing 19Shoes & other leather goods 20Wood & furniture 21Paper & cardboard 22Paper goods & corrugated cardboard 23Graphics & publishing 24Petroleum 25Chemical basic products 26Chemical end products 27Rubber & plastics processing 28Building materials, stoneware & glass 29Basic metals 30Metal products 31Machinery 32Electromechanical 33Cars 34Transport media (general) 35Instruments, optics & others 36Electricity (generation & distribution) 37Gas distribution 38Water supply 39Construction & installation 40Wholesalers & retailers 41Hotels, restaurants, cafes, etc. 42Repairs for used goods 43Shipping & aviation 44General transport & storage 45Communication 46Banking 47Insurance 48Real estate exploitation 49Business services 50Government, civil 51Government, military 52Government, public & special subsidised education 53Social services 54Health & veterinary services 55Culture, sport and recreation 56General services 57Private households with own staff 58Miscellaneous goods & services 59Figure 2.2: Added value in million guilders from the Dutch production per sectorDematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants162.2 MethodsThe requirements for the environmental methods were determined by the aims of the study:? The material flows and related industrial sectors are very comprehensive. In order to be able toprovide information on the total environmental load for each material flow or related sectorsthe environmental load has been given as a single score.? Including land use and depletion of raw materials is important for gaining a complete picture ofthe environmental load and for obtaining adequate answers to the questions posed in this study.In the light of these requirements, we chose to use the Eco-indicator 99 method for determinationof the environmental load. This method was developed by PRé [Goedkoop 1999], commissioned byVROM and in cooperation with national and international scientists and industry. The Eco-indicator99 is the successor to Eco-indicator 95, which was very often applied to analyses of products andthe weighing up of alternatives for processes or products.Important additions compared to existing methods are:• Inclusion of effects of land use and depletion of raw materials;• Detailed elaboration of distribution and effects of toxic substances (including pesticides);• Explicit elaboration of assumptions concerning the damage model utilised, by which evaluationof the effects is made very transparent;• Use of a comprehensive weighting procedure (carried out by the Swiss expert team), by which itis possible to use various weighting factors.By using an evaluation step, the total environmental load of a process or product can be expressedas a single score, by which the environmental load of a process, product and material chains can beshown appropriately (see also appendix 1).2.3 Assumptions and limitationsThe assumptions made in the previous study [Blonk et al., 1997] are generally valid for this study,because use is made of existing information. Thus, it is assumed that the environmental load fromcompetitive imports per guilder of added value is as large in its country of origin as theenvironmental load of this sector in the Netherlands. This means that environmental load fromproduction in the Netherlands is assumed to be the same as the environmental load of productionabroad per guilder within the same sector. This is a very rough approach, because for some of theproducts, this approach is probably not correct.Because the CBS definition of 'non-competitive imports' is based on very broad substitutionpossibilities, this sector includes a very limited number of products. This means that the sector'competitive imports' includes very many products that are not produced in the Netherlands, forexample, exotic vegetables and fruits or rice that according to the definition can be wellsubstituted by Dutch products. It is implicit therefore that the environmental load from theproduction of, for example, kiwi fruit and rice, is assumed to be the same as Dutch production ofapples and potatoes. This means that in the current approach a great deal of information aboutexotic products in competitive imports is lost, because the data are not easily available andtherefore cannot be included in the analysis.In the approach of [Blonk et al. 1997], by using the above assumptions, the international transportof imports is also not included. In the current study, we have made an addition: in order to get amore complete picture, the international transport of imports for consumption has been estimatedwith the aid of data from the report of [Harjono et al. 1996].Discrepancies between sector definitions for financial and environmental data can lead to over- orunder-estimation of the environmental load. An example of this is transport companies: the addedvalue of foreign transport by Dutch companies is included in the financial data for the Dutchsectors, but not in the environmental data. Emissions from transport in the Netherlands are basedon country borders. This is why emissions from transport by Dutch companies abroad are missing,whereby the added value appears to be too high compared to the emissions. This effect is in factcompensated for because emissions from transport by foreign companies in the Netherlands isincluded in the emission figures. How much this leads to incorrect evaluation of the environmentalload per guilder in the transport sector can only be established by a detailed examination of thissector. The same reasoning is applicable to shipping and aviation.Dematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants17The environmental load as a result of extraction, crop production and transport of materials abroadfor the benefit of Dutch industry is in principle not included in the analysis of the productionpattern, because imports were not included in the analysis of [Blonk et al. 1997]. The productionpattern mainly says something about the activities of Dutch industry, i.e., the environmental loadcaused in the Netherlands. The total material input for the benefit of Dutch industry, including theenvironmental load from imports, says more about the total effect of reducing environmentalpressure of materials by Dutch industry. Inventories must really be made of production, extraction,cultivation and transport of large numbers of materials from abroad that fall under competitive andnon-competitive imports. In the framework of this study, it was not possible to prepare theseinventories. The consumption pattern does give a better insight into the environmental load thatconsumption in the Netherlands causes on foreign countries.It is assumed for imports that their value is the same as the added value. All foreign activities arelooked on as a 'black box'. For materials and products that are produced entirely abroad this is areasonable approach, because all their value and therefore the price of their import consists of theadded value of all activities of foreign companies. Products and materials that are first exported,then processed abroad and finally re-imported cannot be looked on using this approach, because inthe price of the imports a part can also be attributed to Dutch industry. It is assumed that theinfluence of re-imports is minor in comparison to total imports.Dematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants183 Production in the Netherlands3.1 Environmental load from Dutch productionFigures 2.1 and 2.2 from the previous chapter show absolute values for environmental load andadded value from the sectors for Dutch production.The total environmental load from Dutch production is 13 billion points, which means approximately870 points per citizen in 1993 (on a European scale, this is 1000 points). The added value is 565billion guilders. This gives a value of 23 millipoints per guilder.The most important contributors to the environmental load are agriculture, chemical basicproducts, petroleum extraction, electricity generation and the transport sector for land transport(see table 3.1).Sector Contribution to totalenvironmental loadfrom Dutch production1 Agriculture 33%26 Chemical basic products 17%37 Electricity generation 12%45 General transport & storage 10%25 Petroleum extraction 7%30 Basic metals 4%29 Building materials, stoneware & glass 2%31 Metal products 1%5 General services (including waste processing) 1%44 Shipping & aviation 1%50 Business services 1%43 Repairs 1%22 Paper and cardboard 1%Table 3.1: Contribution of sectors to the total environmental load from productionIn the following overview, the specific environmental interventions that contribute most to the totalenvironmental load and for which important sectors this contribution is significant (i.e., larger than1%) are given.Significant environmentalcontribution(1% or more)Contribution toenvironmentalload fromproduction [%]Sectors in which the environmental contribution issignificant (among others)Depletion of fossil fuels 47 AllLand use 19 Agriculture, mineral extractionNO2 8 All sectorsCO2 6 AllAmmonia 5 Agriculture, mineral extraction, foodstuffs industryN (leaching N residues) 3 AgricultureSO2 2 Chemical and petroleum industries, and partlyfoodstuffs industryFine dust 2 Petroleum, chemical, building materials, basic metals,foodstuffs, electromechanical, cars and transportmedia industriesCr 2 Metals, machines, graphics, textiles, clothing, leatherand shoe industriesPAHs (Benzo(a)pyrene) 2 TransportMethane 1 Petroleum and gas extractionTable 3.2: Contribution of individual environmental contributions to the total environmental loadfrom productionDematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants19For the service sectors, energy use is particularly important; therefore, all emissions concernedwith gas use and electricity generation are important for these sectors.In figure 3.1, the environmental load in Pt per guilder added value is given for the products made bythe 59 sectors of Dutch production. The sectors are sorted, with sectors showing the highestenvironmental load per guilder at the top.It can be clearly seen that the environmental load per guilder is highest for the industrial sectors;the service sectors have low scores. Exceptions are the transport sectors and the general servicecompanies (including waste processing).Dematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants20Indicatorscores for added value of production [Pt/ guilder]0,0E+005,0E-021,0E-011,5E-012,0E-012,5E-013,0E-01Chemical basic products 26Petroleum 25Electricity (generation & distribution) 37Agriculture, horticulture & forestry 1Basic metals 30Sugar 9Paper & cardboard 22Building materials, stoneware & glass 29General transport & storage 45Milk & dairy products 6Shipping & aviation 44Fish, vegetable & fruit processing 7Cereal processing 8Gas distribution 38General services 57Margarine, starch & other foodstuffs 12Abattoirs & meat products 5Cocoa, chocolate & sugar processing 11Metal products 31Repairs for used goods 43Textiles (general) 18Cotton 16Wool 15Paper goods & corrugated cardboard 23Rubber & plastics processing 28Oil & gas extraction 3Shoes & other leather goods 20Drinks 13General mineral extraction 4Tights & stockings 17Flour processing 10Chemical end products 27Cars 34Wood & furniture 21Hotels, restaurants, cafes, etc. 42Tobacco processing 14Clothing 19Culture, sport and recreation 56Fisheries 2Electromechanical 33Government, public & special subsidised education 53Machinery 32Business services 50Transport media (general) 35Construction & installation 40Health & veterinary services 55Government, civil 51Graphics & publishing 24Communication 46Instruments, optics & others 36Insurance 48Social services 54Wholesalers & retailers 41Water supply 39Banking 47Real estate exploitation 49Government, military 52Private households with own staff 58Miscellaneous goods & services 59Figure 3.1: Environmental load per guilder added value of Dutch productionDematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants214 Consumption in the Netherlands4.1 Environmental load from Dutch consumptionThe total Dutch consumption produces an environmental load of 11.1 billion points. The totalamount of added value that can directly and indirectly be applied to the Dutch consumer is 495billion guilders per year. The environmental load per guilder is therefore an average of 22millipoints per guilder.Dutch consumption per citizen in 1993 was 740 points. Because the environmental load fromproduction per citizen was higher, this means that the Netherlands exports a net surplus ofenvironmental load, or that the environmental load of imports has been underestimated.Figure 4.1 shows the environmental load per guilder added value for the various sectors. The yellowvectors are representing the acticities by consumers. The scores are infinitely high, because thesesectors have no added value. Environmental load from the contribution of international transport isshown in green.4.2 Remarks on the approach to environmental load abroadThe evaluation of the environmental load abroad (related to Dutch imports), it is important to takeaccount of a number of methodological limitations:The environmental load abroad is expressed in Eco-indicator 99 points. This method was reallydeveloped to evaluate the environmental load within the countries of Europe. Outside Europe, thesensitivity towards the environment is often very different. Thus, there are many parts of the worldwith problems of drought, salination, erosion and uncontrolled exploitation of forests, etc. Theseaspects cannot be included in the Eco-indicator method.For competitive imports, we have assumed that the environmental contribution from foreignproduction is the same as that within the Netherlands. This may not be the case, especially inagriculture. In many parts of the world agriculture is much more extensive. This means that a greatdeal more land is used, while the damage in these areas is less serious.Dematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants22Environmental load of consumption per added value [Pt/guilder]0,0E+005,0E-021,0E-011,5E-012,0E-012,5E-013,0E-013,5E-01Traffic & direct transportImmediate consumptionTea Non Competitive ImportElectricity (generation & distribution) 37Agriculture, horticulture & forestry 1Cacoa Non Competitive ImportChemical basic products 26Coffee Non Competitive ImportPetroleum 25Coal Non Competitive ImportAluminium Non Competitive ImportSugar 9Basic metals 30Zinc Non Competitive ImportPaper & cardboard 22Tobacco Non Competitive ImportBuilding materials, stoneware & glass 29General transport & storage 45Iron Non Competitive ImportMilk & dairy products 6Shipping & aviation 44Fish, vegetable & fruit processing 7Cereal processing 8Gas distribution 38Cocoa, chocolate & sugar processing 11Margarine, starch & other foodstuffs 12General services 57Abattoirs & meat products 5Metal products 31Cars 34Repairs for used goods 43Textiles (general) 18Cotton 16Paper goods & corrugated cardboard 23Wool 15Chemical end products 27Rubber & plastics processing 28Shoes & other leather goods 20Oil & gas extraction 3Drinks 13Transport media (general) 35General mineral extraction 4Wood & furniture 21Tricot- en kousenindustrie 17Flour processing 10Electromechanical 33Hotels, restaurants, cafes, etc. 42Tobacco processing 14Fisheries 2Instruments, optics & others 36Clothing 19Machinery 32Culture, sport and recreation 56Government, public & special subsidised education 53Business services 50Construction & installation 40Health & veterinary services 55Government, civil 51Graphics & publishing 24Communication 46Insurance 48Social services 54Wholesalers & retailers 41Water supply 39Miscellaneous goods & services 59Banking 47Real estate exploitation 49Government, military 52Private households with own staff 58Indicator-scores van consumptie [Pt] Indicator-scores van transport voor import [Pt]Figure 4.1: Environmental load per guilder added value for Dutch consumptionDematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants23Indicator scores of consumption [Pt]0,0E+005,0E+081,0E+091,5E+092,0E+092,5E+09Agriculture, horticulture & forestry 1Fisheries 2Oil & gas extraction 3General mineral extraction 4Abattoirs & meat products 5Milk & dairy products 6Fish, vegetable & fruit processing 7Cereal processing 8Sugar 9Flour processing 10Cocoa, chocolate & sugar processing 11Margarine, starch & other foodstuffs 12Drinks 13Tobacco processing 14Wool 15Cotton 16Tights & stockings 17Textiles (general) 18Clothing 19Shoes & other leather goods 20Wood & furniture 21Paper & cardboard 22Paper goods & corrugated cardboard 23Graphics & publishing 24Petroleum 25Chemical basic products 26Chemical end products 27Rubber & plastics processing 28Building materials, stoneware & glass 29Basic metals 30Metal products 31Machinery 32Electromechanical 33Cars 34Transport media (general) 35Instruments, optics & others 36Electricity (generation & distribution) 37Gas distribution 38Water supply 39Construction & installation 40Wholesalers & retailers 41Hotels, restaurants, cafes, etc. 42Repairs for used goods 43Shipping & aviation 44General transport & storage 45Communication 46Banking 47Insurance 48Real estate exploitation 49Business services 50Government, civil 51Government, military 52Government, public & special subsidised education 53Social services 54Health & veterinary services 55Culture, sport and recreation 56General services 57Private households with own staff 58Miscellaneous goods & services 59Traffic & direct transport DirectImmediate consumption DirectCacoa Non Competitive ImportCoffee Non Competitive ImportTea Non Competitive ImportTabacco Non Competitive ImportCoal Non Competitive ImportAluminium Non Competitive ImportIron Non Competitive ImportZinc Non Competitive ImportIndicator-scores van consumptie [Pt] Indicator-scores van transport voor import [Pt]Figure 4.2: Environmental load in Eco-indicator 99 points for Dutch consumptionDematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants245 Results: the questions answered5.1 Question 1 : What are the environmental effects from extraction,production or cultivation in the country of origin?The total environmental load from imported products is 3.7 billion Pt, including competitive andnon-competitive imports, as well as the environmental load caused by the transport that isnecessary for these imports. It should be noted that, in this calculation, the environmental loadfrom competitive imports is assumed to be the same as that of production in a comparable Dutchsector per guilder added value.Summary of total imported consumption Billion pointsContribution by competitive imports 2.5 68%Contribution by non-competitive imports 1.2 32%Total environmental load from imports (in million points) 3.7 100%Table 5.1: Environmental load of competitive v. non-competitive imports for consumptionFrom table 5.2, it can be seen that land use and the amount of transport necessary to bring goodsto the Netherlands each cause approximately 16% of the environmental load. Two-thirds of theenvironmental load is caused by general process emissions and the depletion of raw materials. Theenvironmental load from transport is analysed further in paragraph 5.2.Division of environmental load Billion pointsEnvironmental load excl. transport & land use 2.5 68%Environmental load from transport 0.6 16%Environmental load from land use 0.6 16%Total 3.7Table 5.2: Division of environmental load from imports for consumption5.1.1 Import and export of environmental loadThe total environmental load from Dutch production and from Dutch consumption were presented inChapters 3 and 4, respectively. For calculation of the environmental load from consumption, theenvironmental load for imports was totalled, but the environmental load from exported productswas subtracted.In table 5.3, it can be seen that the environmental load from consumption is lower than that fromproduction. This means that the Netherlands allows a greater net environmental load to occurwithin its borders than the consumers cause within and outside the country. The conclusion is thatexports produce a higher environmental load than imports.Billion pointsEnvironmental load from production 13.0Environmental load from consumption 11.1Difference 1.9Table 5.3: Difference between production and consumptionBecause analyses are regularly made of the so-called 'ecological footprint' of the Netherlands,further analysis of land use abroad and within the Netherlands has been made.The environmental load from land use abroad is high (0.6 billion points), but land use within theNetherlands causes a higher environmental load of 0.9 billion points. In total, the environmentalload from land use that is necessary for Dutch consumption is thus 1.5 billion points. This is 13% ofthe total environmental load resulting from Dutch consumption.Dematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants25environmental load from land use in billion PtTotal production from Dutch sectors 2.5w.v. Dutch production for Dutch consumption 0.9Imports for Dutch consumption 0.6Total consumption 1.5Table 5.3: Difference in environmental load between production and consumption caused by landuseThe land use that is necessary for Dutch production is really even considerably higher, at 2.5 millionpoints. It would appear that the Netherlands is a greater exporter than importer of products thatuse a lot of land.This is a very different picture from that given in the analyses of the ecological footprint. The Netherlandsdoes in fact cause an environmental load abroad, but foreign countries cause even more environmental loadwithin the Netherlands. For land use, the situation is even more clear: foreign countries use more land withinthe Netherlands than the Netherlands uses outside.5.1.2 Ratio between value and environmental loadThe value of total imports, excluding transport, is 113 billion guilders. The environmental load fromimports, excluding transport, is 3.1 billion points, which makes the environmental load per guilder27 mPt. This is slightly higher than the average environmental load for consumption.The so-called non-competitive imports (coffee, tea, cocoa, tobacco, metals and coal) cause aconsiderable part (32%) of the environmental load from imports. The value of these non-competitiveimports is 5.5 billion guilders. The environmental load per imported guilder is therefore 218millipoints. This is almost 10 times as much as the average value for Dutch consumption andproduction. It appears that the Netherlands imports many products that cause a high environmentalload with a low value. If we take account of the fact that most non-competitive imports originatefrom developing countries, we can conclude that the Netherlands does not demonstrate a goodservice to these countries.WarningIn Chapter 4, we described which special problems can play a role in calculation of theenvironmental load abroad. The data produced here must be interpreted carefully.5.1.3 Further analysis of land useIn figure 5.1, the environmental effect of imports into the Netherlands on consumption is shown2 inPt. The figure shows separately the environmental load from international transport (in grey) andland use (in green). The most important absolute contribution to land use from imports is by importsof agricultural products, coffee, tea, tobacco, cocoa, and extraction of general minerals andrubber. 2 Adjustments are made here to prevent duplication: non-competitive imports are taken off from total importsof the sectors. For example, the environmental load from imports in the tobacco processing industry consists ofcompetitive imports from that sector itself, plus the environmental load from the non-competitive import oftobacco.Dematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants26Indicator scores of import [Pt]0,0E+001,0E+082,0E+083,0E+084,0E+085,0E+086,0E+087,0E+08Agriculture, horticulture & forestry 1Fisheries 2Oil & gas extraction 3General mineral extraction 4Abattoirs & meat products 5Milk & dairy products 6Fish, vegetable & fruit processing 7Cereal processing 8Sugar 9Flour processing 10Cocoa, chocolate & sugar processing 11Margarine, starch & other foodstuffs 12Drinks 13Tobacco processing 14Wool 15Cotton 16Tights & stockings 17Textiles (general) 18Clothing 19Shoes & other leather goods 20Wood & furniture 21Paper & cardboard 22Paper goods & corrugated cardboard 23Graphics & publishing 24Petroleum 25Chemical basic products 26Chemical end products 27Rubber & plastics processing 28Building materials, stoneware & glass 29Basic metals 30Metal products 31Machinery 32Electromechanical 33Cars 34Transport media (general) 35Instruments, optics & others 36Electricity (generation & distribution) 37Gas distribution 38Water supply 39Construction & installation 40Wholesalers & retailers 41Hotels, restaurants, cafes, etc. 42Repairs for used goods 43Shipping & aviation 44General transport & storage 45Communication 46Banking 47Insurance 48Real estate exploitation 49Business services 50Government, civil 51Government, military 52Government, public & special subsidised education 53Social services 54Health & veterinary services 55Culture, sport and recreation 56General services 57Private households with own staff 58Miscellaneous goods & services 59Traffic & direct transport DirectImmediate consumption DirectCacoa Non Competitive ImportCoffee Non Competitive ImportTea Non Competitive ImportTabacco Non Competitive ImportCoal Non Competitive ImportAluminium Non Competitive ImportIron Non Competitive ImportZinc Non Competitive Importmilieubelasting import consumptie excl landgebruik internationaal transport (Pt) landgebruik PtFigure 5.1: Total environmental load from imports for Dutch consumption per sector; NCI = non-competitive importDematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants275.2 Question 2: What is the environmental load from transport ofimports ?As mentioned in paragraph 5.1, the environmental load as a consequence of transporting importedgoods is 0.6 billion points. This is 5% of the total environmental load from consumption - a thus notinconsiderable part.It has not been possible to determine the environmental load for transit goods and exports.In figure 5.2, the international transport of the most important import goods is shown in Eco-indicator 99 points. The most important material flows related to the environmental load frominternational transport are:? Natural fertilisers and raw minerals (especially stone and sand for construction);• Coal, coke and charcoal;• Metal ores and metal waste;• Animal feed, excluding unmixed grain;• Vegetables and fruit.0,050,0100,0150,0200,0250,0L ev en de diere nVle es e n vlee sp ro du ctenZ ui ve lpr. en e ierenGr an en en gr.prGroe nten e n fru itS ui ker en s uikerw. ho ningK offie , thee,cacao, specV ee vo er , e x ongem. Gr aanDr an ke nTabak en tabak fa bri ka tenOn ge lo oide h uide n en vellenOli eh ou de nd e zadenS ynth rubberKurk en h outP ap iersto f en - afvalNat. mestst en ruwe minerale nMe taalertsen en metaalafvallenAndere di erl ./ plan t. prodSte enko ol , c okes en br ike ttenDierlijke olien e n vett enPlant.olien e n vettenBereide olien e n vett enAnd ere ch em. prodL ed er en lederwRubberware nK ur k en houtwarenPapie r en karton-a rti kelenGa rens,we efsels e .d.F ab rikate n niet metaalh. mi ne ra lenIJz er en staalNo n-f err oMeta alwa re n n.a.g.V oe rtuigen we gver vo erMeubelen e n toe be h.K le ding en toebeh.SchoeiselEnvironmental load (milion Pt)Figure 5.2: Environmental load from transport of imports in 1993 (Source:[ Harjono et al. 1996])Within the framework of this study, the products were not divided into economic sectors in a simpleway, because a very large amount of data would be required.5.3 Question 3: What is the environmental effect of processingmaterials ?This question is relatively difficult to answer because processing takes place within almost everysector, and the term 'processing' is difficult to define. For a blast furnace company, the extractionof iron from iron ore is processing. For a steel rolling mill, the rolling of steel is processing, while ina car manufacturer the pressing of body parts is processing, whereas from the viewpoint of the carmanufacturer, the rolling of steel is raw material production.Instinctively, we can assume that the above question is mainly related to the final manufacture ofproducts. If we make this assumption, then we see that a number of typical sectors specialised inend products (e.g., the electromechanical, textile, construction and instrumentation industries) arethose industries with the most favourable ratio between environmental load and value. A similarsituation occurs with food preparation and, for example, chemistry. On these grounds, it can besaid that the processing of raw materials shows a relatively (very) low environmental load. Thesectors that are aimed at the production of basic raw materials, such as petroleum, agriculture,Dematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants28horticulture and forestry, as well as the basic metals and sugar industries are reckoned to be therelatively strongly polluting sectors per unit value.Apart from this, it appears that no premature conclusions should be drawn, because processingindustries are linked to the raw material manufacturing industries.5.4 Questions 4 and 5: What is the environmental profit to be gainedfrom reducing the use of materials, and what is the danger thatproblems are shifted elsewhere ?At first sight, the answer to these questions is very simple: less material use means lessenvironmental load. The problem is in fact that as a prior condition it must be assumed that thetotal value in the Dutch economy will increase or in the periods of economic decline will onlydecrease slightly. The question is how far can value creation be unlinked from environmental load?As mentioned earlier, the E2 vector can be used to examine this linkage. In figure 5.3 below, allvectors are drawn for all sectors and the most important are labelled. It is clear that there are onlya few important sectors with a clearly unfavourable ratio between value and environmental load;these are agriculture, horticulture and forestry, chemical basic products, and electricity generationand primary metals. In contrast, sectors such as wholesalers and retailers, business services andpetroleum and gas extraction show a favourable ratio between environmental load and added value.The transport sector has a central position. Other sectors are clearly less significant in terms ofenvironmental load and added value.Summary0,00E+005,00E+081,00E+091,50E+092,00E+092,50E+093,00E+093,50E+094,00E+094,50E+095,00E+090 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 70.000 80.000Added value (in million guilders)Environmental load (Pt)Agriculture, horticulture, forestryElectricity generationnTransport and storage companiesWholesalers and retailersChemical Basic products ind.Business and servicesBasic metal industryFigure 5.3: Summary of the E2 vectors from sectors for Dutch productionIn this presentation, there is a hidden danger for two reasons:• In practice, sectors are inextricably linked to each other, but this chain perspective is missinghere.• Although there is a strong correlation between economic activity in an industrial sector andmaterial flow, we gain only a small picture of the material flow itself.• Production of materials abroad and their import are not included in this summary.Dematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants29Because the chain perspective is missing, it is possible that incorrect conclusions will be drawn. Aservice sector could well use a great deal of transport or computers that they obtain from within anindustrial sector. In this way, the service sectors cause much more indirect environmental load thanappears at first glance; and the opposite may also be the case: an industrial sector that causes arelatively large environmental load per added value can be an important supplier to sectors thatadd great value.The other problem of activities per sector only being indirectly linked to material flows also makesit difficult to draw general conclusions regarding dematerialisation.In order to be able to solve these two problems, we have examined the supplies to a sector in termsof economic value. This can be found in the input-output table of the Dutch economy. For example,it is possible to find out how much the sector 'agriculture, horticulture and forestry' provides to the'milk and dairy products' industry. In this way, we can see a link (and chain) between these twosectors. Subsequently, these chains can be linked to the transport sector, because 'agriculture,horticulture and forestry' also purchases transport; from this, it can be seen that the chain consistsof three elements:Agriculture,horticulture &forestry sectorDairy & milkproducts industryTransportsectorEnvironmentalload perguilder=aEnvironmentalload perguilder=bEnvironmentalload perguilder=cSectorpurchase forp guildersSector suppliesmaterial for qguildersFigure 5.4: How sectors can be linked, in order to be able to calculate the effects of materialflows. In this simple example, the material flow is the supply of goods from the agriculture,horticulture and forestry sector to the milk and dairy products industry. The amount of the supplyand the environmental load per guilder is known for each sector.Using this approach, we are able to chart the entire chain of economic activities around a materialflow. This does require a number of choices to be made:• Which goods or service flows are used a reference? In the example in figure 5.4, the materialflow from the 'agriculture, horticulture and forestry' sector is used a reference, but it wouldalso be possible to use the 'milk and dairy products' or the 'transport' sector as reference.• Which cut-off criteria are used? The 'agriculture, horticulture and forestry' sector obtains fromand provides goods and services to almost every sector. Is it practically impossible to include allthese sectors; cut-off criteria are required. In this study, all supplies of less than 5% of thetotal supplies for a sector will be ignored.• Analysis can be performed at various levels. In this example (figure 5.4), only the primarysupplies have been included. A second level of analysis can also be performed. Thus, thetransport media industry obtains products from the car and petroleum industries, on a secondlevel. There is also, of course, a third level, because the car industry also receives supplies fromthe steel industry, etc. The system-limits problem is also evident in the LCA analysis. In theresults presented below, only the first level is included. This means that supply from transportmedia to the transport industry will be ignored in the example mentioned.As a result of these limitations, the results must be interpreted with caution.Dematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants30Third orderanalysisSecond orderanalysisFirstorderanalysisTransport Agriculture,horticultureMilk and dairyproductsFigure 5.5 : Ilustration of the system boundary levels5.5 Examples of six material or service flowsFive material flows and one service flow have been analysed and the results are shown below. As faras possible, the selection of material flows was based on the interest areas indicated by VROM,although some further definition and delineation were necessary.The table below shows the ratio between the original question and the analyses performed. The lastcolumn shows which part of the total material flow has been analysed. The most important reasonfor limitation of the definition was the heterogeneity and diffuse character of the material flows.The picture that emerged is clearer and more accurate due to this limitation. A service flow is alsoconcluded.Original question Further definition Part of the totalsupply from thecentral sector(including exports)Agricultural productsand foodstuffsAgricultural, horticultural and forestry products in theNetherlands, as supplied to the two largest customers(dairy and meat processing)43%Metals Aluminium, as supplied to the four largest customers(basic metals, metal products, construction &electromechanical)41%Chemicals Chemical end products, as supplied to the consumer 7%Solid fuels Coal, as supplied to the three largest customers(electricity, basic metals & petroleum).77%Minerals & buildingmaterialsSand and gravel, as supplied to the three largestcustomers (building materials, construction & chemicalend products)75%None Insurance as supplied to the consumer 5%Table 5.4: Definition of various material flows5.5.1 Agriculture, horticulture and forestry products in the Netherlands that are suppliedto the meat and dairy industriesThe agriculture, horticulture and forestry sector has one of the highest environmental loads perearned guilder (240 millipoints) if we do not take account of the chain perspective. In figure 5.6below, we show what happens when the chain perspective is included for the supply to the dairyDematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants31and meat-processing industries. These last two sectors have a much more favourable ratio. Thus, ifwe look at the material flow using the chain perspective, the environmental load per guilder is only83 millipoints. Looking via the chain perspective shows this sector to have a three times lowerenvironmental load than when it is examined from a purely sectoral viewpoint.Agriculture, horticulture and forestry products in the Netherlands as supplied to the two largest consumers0,00E+005,00E+081,00E+091,50E+092,00E+092,50E+093,00E+090 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 35.000Added value (in million guilders)Environmental load (Pt) Cereal processingGas distributorImportsAgriculture, horticulture and forestryAbattoirs & Meat processingMilk and dairy productsTransport (imports)Figure 5.6: E2 vector for Agriculture, horticulture and ForrestryConclusionDematerialisation in the agriculture, horticulture and forestry sector provides three times lessenvironmental effect than appears at first glance, because the sectors to which this sector suppliesproducts show a relatively favourable environmental load per guilder.With a ratio of 83 mPt per guilder, this material flow is one of the least favourable with respect toenvironmental load per guilder of the cases examined here.5.5.2 AluminiumInstead of the rather diffuse material flow that runs through the sector 'basic metals', we havechosen to follow only the material flow for aluminium. The first segment (aluminium) is releated tothe production abroad of aluminium (not a sector, but calculated separately as non-competitiveimport). The last four sectors (basic metals, construction, metal products and electromechanical)are the customers for aluminium. The recycling sector is not found here because the consumers ofaluminium do not deliver directly to the recycling industry.Production within the Netherlands cannot be separately specified, as it can be found within thebasic metal sector. In this case, it also appears that the total environmental load per earned guilderacross the entire chain is lower than for aluminium production alone. This is true for supplies to theelectromechanical, metal products and building industries.ConclusionThe environmental load per guilder for the total material flow 'aluminium' is lower than aluminiumproduction alone. The supply of aluminium to the basic metal industry has an importantunfavourable effect for the material flow 'aluminium'.With a ratio of 83 mPt per guilder, this material flow is one of the least favourable with respect toenvironmental load per guilder of the cases examined here.Dematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants32Aluminium, as supplied to the four largest customers0,00E+005,00E+071,00E+081,50E+082,00E+082,50E+080 500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000Added value (in million guilders)Environmental load (Pt)AluminiumTransportBasic metalsMetal productsConstruction and installationElectromechanicalFigure 5.7: E2 vector for Aluminium5.5.3 Chemical end productsThe sector 'chemical end products' supplies to very many sectors; we show below only supplies tothe Dutch consumer, which is only 8% of the total supplies from this sector. The supply from thissector has a relatively greater environmental load per earned guilder than the 'chemical endproducts' sector itself and especially supply of basic chemicals from abroad plays an important role.It is also notable that the sector 'business services' contributes a relatively large amount to thismaterial flow. This can be explained by the fact that in the sector 'business services' the engineeringconsultancies including research laboratories are found.The figure shows a similar picture as supplies to other sectors.ConclusionThe material flow of the chemical end product industry supplying to the Dutch consumer shows arelatively higher environmental load per earned guilder (69 mPt) than the sector itself (7.5 mPt),with the difference being a factor of 10 Chemical end products industry, as supplied to the largest buyer (the consumer)0,00E+002,50E+075,00E+077,50E+071,00E+081,25E+081,50E+080 200 400 600 800 1.000 1.200 1.400 1.600 1.800Added value (in million guilders)Environmental load (Pt)Chemical basic productsBusiness servicesImportsrImports (transport)Chemical end productsConsumersCFigure 5.8 E2 vector for Chemical end productsDematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants335.5.4 CoalCoal is mainly (77%) supplied to three sectors, and production occurs entirely abroad. In this case,the environmental load per guilder for coal production is more favourable than the environmentalflow for the entire material flow, because of the very favourable ratio between environmental loadand value for the basic metals and petroleum industries, and electricity generation.ConclusionThe material flow 'coal' causes an unfavourable ratio between environmental load and value abroad.In absolute terms, this ratio is in fact slightly more favourable (69 mPt) than for the three sectorsshown above (sections 5.5.1, 5.5.2 and 5.5.3).Coal, as supplied to the three largest consumers0,00E+001,00E+082,00E+083,00E+084,00E+085,00E+086,00E+087,00E+088,00E+089,00E+081,00E+090 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000Added value (in million guilders)Environmental load (Pt)CoalPetroleumTransport (imports)Basic metalsElectricity generationFigure 5.9 E2 vector for coal5.5.5 Sand and gravelSand and gravel are supplied mainly to the building materials and construction industries, althougha significant amount also goes to the chemical end product industry. In this material flow, thepicture is dominated by the large amount of transport from abroad.ConclusionIn the material flow 'Sand and gravel' the picture is determined by transport from abroad, whichgives the ratio between environmental load an added value of 29 mPt per guilder; this is the lowestvalue of all of the material flows studied here.Dematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants34Sand and gravel, as supplied to the three largest customers 0,00E+005,00E+071,00E+081,50E+082,00E+082,50E+083,00E+080 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000Added value (in million guilders)Environmental load (Pt)Sand and gravelTransport (imports)Building materialsChemical end productsConstruction and installationFigure 5.10: E2 vector for Sand and gravel5.5.6 Insurance as an example of a service sectorThe same method was used to analyse a service flow, in this case insurance as supplied to theconsumer.An exceptional fact here is the importance of imported goods, which seem to be office accessories(computers, etc.), paper and printed matter. Due to these supplies, the ratio between (theenvironmental load and the added value of the service stream (9 mPt per guilder) is relatively lessfavourable than from the sector itself (1.4 mPt per guilder).Furthermore, it was notable that supplies from the electricity and car sectors lie below the cut-offlimit of 5% and are, so it seems, not that important in this sector.ConclusionBy using goods and services from abroad and the transport thus involved, service flows can affectthe environment relatively more than can be seen at first glance.Insurance, as delivered to the largest customer (the consumer)0,00E+001,00E+072,00E+073,00E+074,00E+075,00E+076,00E+077,00E+070 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000 6.000 7.000Added value (in million guilders)Environmental load (Pt)ConsumersInsuranceTransport (imports)ImportsBankingBusiness services CFigure 5.11 E2 vector for insurance servicesDematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants355.5.7 Conclusions from the material and service flow analysesThe material flows studied are summarised in figure below. It can be clearly seen that the vectorsfor the material flows related to agriculture, horticulture and forestry, aluminium and chemicalsshow approximately the same slope. The other material and service flows show a clearly lowerenvironmental load per guilder. It is also clear which material flow is relatively more important.This is in fact partly determined by the choice to only model a part of the material flow. These dataare further specified in table below.Summary0,00E+001,00E+082,00E+083,00E+084,00E+085,00E+086,00E+087,00E+088,00E+089,00E+081,00E+090 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000Added value (in million guilders)Environmental load (Pt)Coal, as supplied to the three largestconsumersChemical end products, as supplied tothe largest buyer (the consumer)Aluminium, as supplied to the four largestcustomersInsurance as deliverd to the largestcustomer (the consumer)Sand and gravel, as supplied to the threelargest customersAgriculture, horticulture & forestryproducts in the Netherlands, as suppliedto the tw o largest customers2,4E9 Pt;28.800 million guildersFigure 5.12: Summary of studied ratios for material and service flowsFurther definition Part of thetotal supplyfrom thecentral sector(includingexports)Environmentalload inindicatorpointsValue(in millionguilders)Totalenvironmentalload (millipointsper guilder)Agriculture, horticulture & forestry inthe Netherlands, as supplied to the twolargest customers43% 2.39E+09 2.88E+04 83Aluminium, as delivered to the fourlargest consumers41% 2.35E+08 2.83E+03 83Chemical end products, as supplied tothe consumer7% 1.14E+08 1.64E+03 69Coal, as supplied to the three largestcustomers77% 9.06E+08 1.92E+04 47Sand & gravel, as supplied to the threelargest customers75% 2.85E+08 9.93E+03 29Insurance, as supplied to the consumer 5% 4.42E+07 5.19E+03 9Table5.5: Summary of studied material flowsFrom these six cases, it appears that the environmental load per guilder can be very different fromthe total material or service flow. It is therefore dangerous to base a dematerialisation policy onenvironmental load per sector. Thus, service flows can have much higher environmental loads perDematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants36added value than appears at first glance, whereas the ratio for material flows does remain morefavourable than it appears at first glance.5.6 Questions 6 and 7: What are the possibilities for a new policy inthe Netherlands, and must that be tuned to internationalrequirements?On the international level, a consistent monitoring system for dematerialisation policy cannot befound, and in spite of sweeping statements on how effective dematerialisation could be, there arevery few well founded and critical analyses. The few attempts to quantify the effects ofdematerialisation are usually not well founded. A positive exception is the analysis from [Cleveland2000]. [te Riele 2000] has made a very good analysis of the international developments in this area.This report is based on the following research question: Quantify of the environmental load of someimportant material flows, with the ultimate aim of estimating the environmental profit that can beachieved by dematerialisation.This question assumes that it is possible that a deliberate policy can shift the basis of economy in adirection that involves a lower material throughput. However, because a consensus appears to existon the necessity for a certain level of economic growth, it must be assumed that the total valuecreation in the community will not decrease due to dematerialisation. Implicitly, this means thatthe decreasing material flows must be exchanged with increasing service flows, or in any case byactivities in which material flows play a subordinate role.In the Product Service Systems report [Goedkoop et al., 1998], it was explained that it is verydifficult to separate services strictly from physical products. In fact, each service and each productcan be taken into a service/product combination; a strict separation between materials-related andservices-related economic activities is not possible, but the emphasis of the activities can vary.5.6.1 The Dematerialisation levelIn order to analyse the policy potential, we have defined the term 'level of dematerialisation' asfollows:The level of dematerialisation is the share (%) of economic activities that are not linked tomaterial flows responsible for their added value creation.A division should be made between the level of dematerialisation for the Dutch economy and Dutchconsumption, as well as per sector.0% 100%Dematerialisation index(fraction of activities not linked to material flows in added value creation)Environmental load per guilder ABC?Figure 5.13 : Hypothetical dematerialisation corveDematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants37Figure 5.13 shows in a very simplified way this starting point, showing the environmental loadagainst the level of dematerialisation. With increasing dematerialisation, the environmental loaddecreases. The curve in figure 5.13 contains the assumption that a hypothetical optimum exists.Above a certain amount of dematerialisation, the environmental load starts to increase again. Thiscould occur due to one or more of the following effects:• If the Dutch economy undergoes strong dematerialisation, more imports will be needed toensure sufficiency in materials; the amount of transport will therefore also increase;• Material flows abroad will cause more environmental load if the technology in those countries isless 'clean';• Not all service flows are equally environmentally friendly; some are less environmentallyfriendly than material flows. Reduction of environmentally friendly material flows andstimulation of less environmentally friendly service flows could work counter-productively.In practice it is unthinkable that complete dematerialisation could take place, because somematerials are essential to satisfy human needs such as food, housing, transport, etc.A further assumption in the presentation is that in the Netherlands increasing dematerialisationleads to a decreasing environmental load. It is likely that we are close to point A in figure 5.13, justunder the descending part of the curve.With this instrument, two important analyses can be performed:• What is to be expected in the short and mid-term from an increasing level of dematerialisation?• What is to be expected in the long term from dematerialisation? and what is the optimum levelof dematerialisation?For analysis on the short or long term, it would be interesting to determine the slope of the curveon the dematerialisation curve at point B. This slope would indicate how much one percent (1%)dematerialisation would contribute in decreased environmental load. The analysis should beperformed with the assumption that all material flows would be reduced by the same amount. Inpractice, the effect of dematerialisation could be much greater when especially the material flowswith the least favourable ratio between value and environmental load are reduced first. Thus, adifference can be made between slopes for the average and for the optimal situation (see also thediscussion on the level of dematerialisation per sector).For the long term, we can look for the location of point C, i.e., what level of dematerialisation isoptimal and what environmental benefits can be achieved.The position of point C also depends on the question of whether dematerialisation will bedistributed over all material flows or whether some specific material flows will be reduced.5.6.2 Dematerialisation level per sectorThe above-described perspective provides a good overview, but may be too crude as a basis forpolicy development. Furthermore, a dematerialisation policy could be considered as a treat itimplies that whole sectors would get less support or would even have to be shrunk. There would belittle support for such an approach. In stead of an approach that stimulates or discourages wholesectors, it is more appropriate to analyse the dematerialisation level of each sector. In that casethe sector as a whole would not have to be schrunk; in stead, the policy would be directed towardschanges within the sectors. It seems probable to assume that such an approach would get moresupportIt could be recommended that an analysis is made for some important sectors. This does notnecessarily need to be the sectors according to the CBS classification; It could also be an analysisper policy theme or target group.The analysis of the dematerialisation level per sector could result in an inventory of the activitiesthat are dominated by material flows. As mentioned above, all services and all physical productscan be seen as product/service combinations, and therefore there will be no strict material-linkedDematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants38economic activities without service aspects. In each sector, we can expect activities that are onlyweakly linked to material flows3.Such an analysis is relatively complex due to the fact that both the environmental load per sectormust be examined, and the entire material or service flow that is associated with these activities.Although the analysis is thus aimed as economic activities within a sector or target group, theanalysis is extended to the material or service flows in other sectors. The E2 vector can again be animportant aid here.In these analyses, the level of dematerialisation should not be the only criterion. A more generalexamination should be made of activities within a sector with a favourable or unfavourable ratiobetween environmental load and value.5.6.3 Eco-pool and Eco-flow analysis of sectorsBefore an analysis of the level of dematerialisation per sector can be made, the so-called 'Eco-pool'concept from the Product Service System project [Goedkoop et al., 1999] can be set up for thesector.In this concept, the activities of a particular sector are displayed as a chart. In figure 5.14a, ahypothetical example is shown. The horizontal axis shows the total cumulative value from allactivities within a sector. The vertical axis shows the environmental load of all activities as far asthey take place within the boundaries of the sector.0% 100%Value creation within the sectorEnvironmental loadFigure 5.14a : Example of an eco-pool within a sector or target group. The blocks represent someimportant activities. The horizontal axis represents the cumulative values of all activities in thesector, the vertical axis represents the environmental load insofar this occurs WITHIN the sector.This means the graph represents a sector perspective and not a material or service flowperspectiveThis eco-pool does not yet show the effect of the material or service flow that the sector hashelped to cause. For this, an expanded version of the eco-pool is required; we shall call this 'eco-flow'. In this perspective, we also look at the 'upflow' and 'downflow 'effects of the activities thatflow through the sector. We shall work out this eco-flow picture in the following hypotheticalexample (figure 5.14b).Eco-flow analysis is aimed at all material and service flows associated with the sector. Each block infigure 5.b is itself the result of analysis using the E2 vector for the particular material or serviceflow. The environmental load is thus not determined by the activities within the sector, but by thematerial and service flows caused by a sector, or those that can be attributed to that sector. Theblack arrow represents the E2 vector of the activities that take place within the sector; the greyarrows are the vectors for activities outside the sector. 3 see for example the material flow 'chemical end products' in which a relatively important servicevector can be found.Dematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants390% 100%Value creation from all activities, including suppliesEnvironmental loadEco-flowFigure 5.14 : Example of an eco-flow analysis. The coloured blocks represent the sectors from theprevious figure, the grey blocks represent the total material or service flow through upstream anddownstream sectors. The black vector represents the E2 vector with the sector, the grey vectorsrepresent the E2 vectors outside the vector. From this hypothetical example it appears thatactivities in the sector with a seemingly favourable E2 vector, can be part of a unfeavouravblematerial or service flow .5.6.4 The necessary instrumentsIn order to be able to perform the described analyses, some more advanced instruments arerequired. The current report describes the required methodological concept and shows how theinstruments work using examples. There are however two important limitations:• The calculation of material and service flows for the preparation of E2 vectors is at this momentrather time-consuming. Because of this, these flows can only be calculated as first-order flows,and the calculation must be cut off for sectors that add less than 5% to the chain. Using theselaborious procedures, only a few material flows can be calculated.• The databases used are fairly old; the most recent is from 1993. In addition, the CBSclassification has changed in the meantime and there a more detailed input-output table is nowavailable.We expect that it is fairly easy to develop a software that can calculate each material and serviceflow upt to the second or third order, with a much more refined cut-of criterion. Such softwarewould allow for an analysis of the most important materials and service flows. Based on this, thefollowing results could be obtained:1. A chart showing the level of dematerialisation of the Dutch economy and Dutch consumption;2. A prioritisation for the target groups or sectors to be influenced;3. A further analysis of the level of dematerialisation per target group or sector.Of course, as policy plans become more concrete, the need for up to date datasets becomesincreasingly important. Perhaps a first attempt at analysis can still be based on the existingdatabase.Dematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants406 Conclusions and recommendations6.1 ConclusionsThis study aimes to make an analysis and to develop and describe the required instruments.The conclusions and recommendations are therefore related to the possibilities for analysis. Themain conclusion is that analysing material and service flows according to the methods described isextremely interesting as an instrument for policy preparation.With the analysis of the ratio between environmental load and added value, it is possible to gain anentirely new insight into the environmental load caused by Dutch industry and Dutch consumers. Inthe latter case, it is also possible to gain insights into the environmental load from imports.In this new perspective, the economic sectors are evaluated according to their contribution toeconomic wealth. Producing value is taken as the functional unit of the study 'which sectors createmore value with a low environmental load?'.Analysing the sectors, a number of important general conclusions can be drawn:1. In contrast to what is often thought, the Netherlands causes less environmental load abroadthan foreign countries cause in the Netherlands. It is noticeable that the environmental loadfrom land use is caused largely by exports, as a consequence of the large amount of exports ofagricultural and horticultural products. Another important factor appears to be the largecontribution of the chemical basic products and petroleum industries.2. The environmental load per imported guilder (for imports) is slightly higher than the average forconsumption. For the so-called non-competitive imports, the environmental load per guilder is10-fold higher than the average. These non competitive imports originate mainly in developingcountries. Apparently the Netherlands imports from these countries especially those productsthat cause an high environmental load at a low return in value. This seems to be in conflict withthe aim of the policy concerning developing countries.3. The transport that is necessary for imports has a significant environmental load, which is 5% ofthe environmental load from consumption. Transport required for transit of exports could notbe quantified.4. Service sectors appear to be considerably more environmentally friendly than industrial sectors.There are a few important exceptions, such as the transport and general services sectors. Thislatter sector includes municipal Waste processing.5. The industry sectors concerned with basic materials, such as petrochemical products,agricultural products, electricity, basic metals and sugar, cause a high environmental load perearned guilder. Sectors concerned with processing these materials score considerably better.From the analysis of material flows using E2 vectors, the following conclusions can be drawn:6. The fact that a sector shows an unfavourable ratio between value and environmental load doesnot always mean that this ratio is bad for the whole material flow that runs through the sector.Thus, the ratio between value and environmental load for the material flow 'agriculture,horticulture and forestry products' is 3 times more favourable than the ratio for the sectoritself. This is because the processing of these products has a relatively favourable ratio. Incontrast, sectors with favourable ratios make use of a material flow that has a relativelyunfavourable ratio, for example, the chemical end products industry. There is thus aconsiderable difference between the environmental performance of sectors and of materialflows. Conclusions cannot be drawn in relation to environmental load of a material flow basedon one sector, because sectors are linked to each other.7. Although service sectors score relatively very favourably, the ratio between environmental loadand value for the total service flow is considerably less favourable than appears at first glance.This is due to the large amount of supplies in the form of goods (including computers) fromindustrial sectors and from imports to the service sectors.6.2 RecommendationsOn the basis of the results of this study, we propose the following actions for the future:1. Further elaborate on the results. Important points for improvement are the use of more recentdata, and more accurate analyses of the transport sector (especially foreign transport) andcompetitive imports.Dematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants412. Create a simple software to enable the quick preparation of vector diagrams for material flows.The advantage of such a program is that second- and third-order analyses could also beperformed.3. Set up an indicator of the level of dematerialisation, and chart the relationship between thelevel of dematerialisation and environmental load. Develop this instrument such that it can beused at national, international and sector levels.4. Based on the results from recommendations 2 and 3, establish which material flows should beinfluenced with priority. Then determine which sectors in the material flows would offer thebest starting points for policy development.5. Alongside this top-down approach, analyse from the bottom up per sector how the materialflows can be redefined in better-defined material flows, and how the the suggested eco-flowconcept can be used for a further prioritisation. The precondition should be that theenvironmental load itself is lowered by improving the ratio between load and value, while ofcourse the value created by the sector may increase. Make agreements with sectors on thisbasis.6. Develop a structured exchange about this concept on international level .References (translated when necessary for an English audience)Blonk, 1997 Blonk, H., Lafleur, M., Spriensma, R., Stevens, S., Goedkoop, M.,Agterberg, A., van Engelenburg, B., Blok, K. Drie referentieniveaus voorNormalisatie in LCA: Nederlands grondgebied 1993/94 Nederlandseeindconsumptie 1993/94; West Europees grondgebied 1990. (Threereference levels for normalisation in LCA: Dutch territory 1993/94;Dutch end consumption 1993/94; West European territory 1990) RIZAworking document 97.110X, July 1997Buwal 1998 SAEFL (1998) Life Cycle Inventories for Packagings. Bern: Swiss Agencyfor the Environment, Forest and Landscape. SimaPro 4.0 databaseversion.CBS, 1993 Input–output table from 1993. Central Office for Statistics, Voorburg,the Netherlands. 1993.CBS, 1994 Statistisch Jaarboek (Statistics Annual) 1994. Centraal Office forStatistics, Voorburg, the Netherlands. 1994.CBS, 1996 CBS, Tabellen: nationale rekeningen, concurrerende invoer en gebruikvan goederen 1996 (Tables of national accounts, competitive importsand use of goods). Central Office for Statistics, Voorburg, theNetherlands. 1993.CBS, 1999 Milieucompendium (Environmental compendium) 1999. Het milieu incijfers (The environment in figures). Central Office for Statistics,Voorburg, the Netherlands. 1999.Cleveland, 1999 Cleveland, C.J.; Ruth, M; Indicators of dematerialisation and theMaterials Intensity of Use, Journal of Industrial Ecology, Volume 2,Number 3, 1999.EEA, 1995 European Environment Agency, Environment in the European Union1995, EEA, Copenhagen, Denmark.Goedkoop et al., 1999 Goedkoop, M.J., van Halen, C. J.G., te Riele H.R.M. and Rommens,P.J.M. Product Service Systems, Ecological and Economic Basics. Oncontract to the Ministry of VROM and EZ, March 1999.Dematerialsation November 2000 PRé Consultants42Goedkoop & Lindeijer, 1999 Goedkoop, M. and Lindeijer, E. Milieumaten 1999 (Environmentalmeasurements), 10 November 1999, external discussion paper.Harjono et al., 1996 Harjono, M., Hoefnagels, F. and de Lange V. Nederlands ruimtebeslagin het buitenland (Dutch contribution to land use abroad), CREM,Amsterdam 1996, on contract to VROM.van Leeuwen et al., 1998 van Leeuwen, A. and van Uffelen, X. Soort zoekt soort. Elke sector zijnfavoriete lokatie (Sort seeks sort. Each sector has its own favouritelocation). Article in Elsevier magazine, July 1998.NER, 1995 Nederlandse Emissie Registratie, Emissies in Nederland, Trends,thema's en doelgroepen 1993 en ramingen 1994, publicatiereeksemissieregistratie nr. 26. (Dutch Emission Register, Emissions in theNetherlands, Trends, themes and target groups 1993 and estimates1994, publication series on emission registration, no. 26) VROM, DenHaag (the Hague, the Netherlands). 1995.OECD, 1995 OECD, Environmental data 1995, OECD, Paris, France.te Riele, 2000 te Riele, H.; Elburg, M., Kemna, R. Dematerialisatie, Minder helder danhet lijkt; nog niet gepubliceerd VROM rapport, voorlopige versie 30-7-2000 (Dematerialisation - less clear than it looks; VROM report not yetpublished; preliminary version 30 July 2000)Appendix 1 November 2000 PRé Consultants11 Annexe 1 The Eco-indicator 99 methodologyThe Eco-indicators used here have been calculated with a methodology that is summarised below.The details of this methodology can be found in the Eco-indicator 99 methodology report [Goedkoopet al. 99] that is available from the ministry of VROM, in the series Product policy 99/36A or fromwww.pre.nl.1.1 Three stepsIn order to calculate the Eco-indicator score, three steps are needed:1. Inventory of all relevant emissions, resource extractions and land-use in all processes that formthe life cycle of a product. This is a standard procedure in Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). In thisparticular report these data are based form the Dutch Emission Registration and some othersources.2. Calculation of the damages these flows cause to Human Health, Ecosystem Quality andResources3. Weighting of these three damage categories.In the figure 1 these steps are illustrated. Below we discuss these steps in inverse order, thusstarting with step 3. This inverse order was also our line of thinking during the development.Inventory ofall flowsfrom and toallprocesses inthe lifecycle of aproduct1Damage toresourcesDamage toecosystemsDamage tohumanhealthResult of theinventoryIndicatorResourcesLand useEmissionsDamagemodel forthese flows2Weightingof thesethreedamagecategories3Figure 1: General procedure for the calculation of Eco-indicators. The dark coloured boxes refer toprocedures, the light coloured boxes refer to intermediate results.1.2 Weighting (step 3)The most critical and controversial step in a methodology as this is the weighting step.Traditionally in LCA the emissions and resource extractions are expressed as 10 or more differentimpact categories, like acidification, ozone layer depletion, ecotoxicity and resource extraction.For a panel of experts or non-experts it is very difficult to give meaningful weighting factors forsuch a large number and rather abstract impact categories. The problem is that panel memberscannot really grasp the seriousness of these impact categories, without knowing what effects areassociated with them. An additional problem is that 10 is a relative high number of items to beweighted.In the Eco-indicator 99 methodology development we started with the design of the weightingprocedure and asked ourselves what type of information a panel can handle in a weightingprocedure. Our conclusion was that we should not ask the panel to weight the impact categories butthe different types of damage that are caused by these impact categories. The other improvementis to limit the number of items that are to be assessed to three. As a result, the panel is asked toassess the seriousness of just three damage categories:1. Damage to Human Health, expressed as the number of year life lost and the number of yearslived disabled. These are combined as Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), an index that isAppendix 1 November 2000 PRé Consultants2also used by the World bank and the WHO.2. Damage to Ecosystem Quality, express as the loss of species over an certain area, during acertain time3. Damage to Resources, expressed as the surplus energy needed for future extractions of mineralsand fossil fuels.The panel used in this project consisted of 365 persons from a Swiss LCA interest group [Mettier1999]. This group can unfortunately not be regarded as representative for the European population.The reason for choosing this group was the assumption that such a group would better understandthe questions posed to them. In spite of this limitation, we still use the results.The results from this group indicate that the panellist find damage to Human Health and damage toEcosystem Quality about equally important while damage to Resources is considered to be abouthalf as important.1.3 The damage model (Step 2)In order to be able to use the weights for the three damage categories a series of complex damagemodels had to be developed. In figure 7 these models are represented in a schematic way.IndicatorDamage toresources [MJsurplus energy]Danage toecosystems [%plant species*m2 *yr]Damage toHuman health[disabilityadjusted lifeyears (DALY)]Regional effect on species numbersLocal effect on species numbersEffect on Target speciesEcotoxicity: toxic stress (PAF)Climate change (disease + displacement)Ozonlayer depletion (cancer + cataract)Radiation effects (cancer)Respiratory effectsCancerSurplus energy at future extractionSurplus energy at future extractionConcentration of oresAvailability of fossil fuelsDecrease of natural area'sAltered pH.+nutrient availability.Concentration in soilConcentration of greenhouse gasConcentration ozone depl. subst.Concentration radionuclidesConcentration fine dust, VOC .Concentr. air, water and foodNOxSOxNH3PesticidesHeavy metalsCO2HCFCNuclides (Bq)SPMVOC’sPAH’sResource analysisLand-use analysisFate analysisExposure andeffect analysisDamage analysis Normalisationand WeightingLand-use andland conversionExtraction ofminerals andfossil fuelsStep 1 Step 2 Step 3Invetory analysisMiningConverterMillingPressingTransportDisposalFigure 7: Detailed representation of the damage model (step 2)1.3.1 The damage model for emissionsFor the calculation of the damages caused by emissions four steps are needed [Hofstetter 1998].Fate analysisWhen a chemical substance is released it finds its way through the environmental compartments air,water and soil. Where the substance will go, and how long it will stay depends on the properties ofthe substance and the compartments. A well soluble substance will be collected in the watercompartment, while a substance that easily binds to organic particles may end op in specific typesof soil. Another aspect is the degradability, as most organic substances have a limited lifetime. In socalled “fate analysis” models the transfer between compartments and the degradation ofsubstances is modelled. As a result the concentrations in air, water, soil and food can be calculated.Appendix 1 November 2000 PRé Consultants3Industrial soil Agricultural soil Natural soilCrops,meat,milkAirWaterFish+drinkingwaterexposure to humansFigure 8: Schematic representation of a fate model used for toxicity. For other substance types other fatemodels are used.ExposureBased on the calculated concentrations we can determine how much of a substance is really takenin by people and by plants or other life forms.Effect analysisOnce the exposure of a substance is known it is possible to predict the types and frequencies ofdiseases and other effects.Damage analysisThe predicted diseases can now be expressed into our damage unit. For instance if we know that acertain level of exposure causes ten extra cases of a certain type of cancer, we can find data on theaverage age people get this type of cancer and the average chance that people will die. Based onthis data, we can calculate how many years of life are lost, and how many years are lived disabled,as people are ill and have to be treated in hospital. For the toxic effects on ecosystems wecalculate what percentage of plants and lower species are exposed to toxic stress, while foracidification and eutrophication we model what percentage of plants are likely to disappear(Potentially Disappeared Fraction). Damages to higher species like birds and mammals could not becalculated, but there are good reasons to assume that the damage to plants and lower organisms isalso representative for the damage to populations of higher animals.For most substances the damages are calculated on a European scale. For some substances, likegreenhouse gasses, ozone-depleting gasses, radioactive substances with a long lifetime, the damageis calculated on a world-wide level, as these substances are dispersed world-wide.1.3.2 Damage model for land-useMankind is occupying large areas for urban and agricultural purposes. This is an important reasonwhy many species are threatened with extinction, and therefore it is important to include theeffects of land-use by man-made systems into the Eco-indicator. Also here the disappearance ofspecies is taken as the damage unit.Different types of land-use will have different effects. For instance a paved parking lot will haveless plant species than an organic meadow. On the basis of field observation studies [Köllner 1999]we have developed a scale expressing the species diversity per type of land use. A complication isthe fact that the species diversity depends on the size of an area. This means that the constructionand use of a parking lot does not only have an effect on the actual area of the lot, but also on thesurrounding region, as due to the parking lot the natural areas will become slightly smaller. We callthis the regional effect. In the Eco-indicator 99 both the regional and the local effect are taken intoaccount.Appendix 1 November 2000 PRé Consultants4Figure 9 Some examples of the species area relationship. Every dot is based on an actual observation. The lineis the calculated correlation between the area size(horizontal) and the species number(vertical). [Taken fromKöllner 1999]1.3.3 Damage model for resourcesBy extracting minerals we reduce the quality of the remaining resources. This is because mankindalways extracts the best resources first, leaving the lower quality resource to future generations.For instance in the Bronze Age, our ancestors found ores with a few percent of copper, whilenowadays the average grade is around 0.7%.The damage to resources will be experienced by future generations as they will have to use moreeffort to extract the remaining resources. We express this extra effort as “surplus energy” [Müller-Wenk 1998] Cummulative amount of materials Mined (tons)CopperLeadZincChromium1081087106105MercuryUraniumMolybdenumTungstenOre Grade (percent metal)10 1 0,1Figure 10: The relation between the availability of resources and the ore grade on a logarithmic scale for anumber of minerals. A steep line indicates that the availability increases sharply if mankind is able andwilling to accept a slightly lower ore concentration. A flat line means that even at lower concentrations, theavailability will not increase very much. The latter case is more problematic than the first. [Taken fromChapman 83]For fossil fuels a similar reasoning applies, although we cannot use the term concentration here.However, a wealth of statistical data indicates that gradually the supply of easily extractable fossilfuels, like liquid oil will decline. This does not mean we are faced with the end of fossil resource,but that other lower quality resources like oil shale will have to be used. Also here lower quality canbe translated into surplus energy, as the exploration of for instance shale will require significantmore energy than the extraction of liquid oil.Appendix 1 November 2000 PRé Consultants5Figure 11: The discovery rate of liquid oil has dropped ton average of about 6 Gigabarrel per year, while theextraction is almost tenfold. The so-called giant fields have all been discovered during the fifties, sixties andseventies. The present knowledge of geology is so well developed that it is unlikely that many new giant fieldscan be found.1.4 Inventory of the processes (Step 1)The inventory stage used in the dematerialisation is somewhat different from a normal LCA. Thereport describes how the basic data on emissions, raw materials and land-use have been collected.Literature for this annexe[Campbell 1998] Campbell, C.J.; A Guide to Determining the World’s Endowement andDepletion of Oil, March 31, 1998, Petroland Consultants. see alsowww.hubbertpeak.com/ campbell/ guide.htm[Chapman 1983] Chapman, P.F.; Roberts, F. (1983): Metal Resources and Energy. ButterworthsMonographs in Materials[Goedkoop 1999] Goedkoop, M.J.; Spriensma, R.S.; The Eco-indicator 99, Methodology report, Adamage oriented LCIA Method; VROM Report -------, Den Haag, 1999 [Hofstetter 1998] Hofstetter, P. (1998): Perspectives in Life Cycle Impact Assessment; AStructured Approach to Combine Models of the Technosphere, Ecosphere andValuesphere. , Kluwers Academic Publishers, 1998, Info:www.wkap.nl/book.htm/07923-8377-X.[Köllner 1999] Köllner, T.; Life-Cycle Impact Assessment for Land Use. Effect AssessmentTaking the Attribute Biodiversity into Account., submitted for the Journal ofCleaner Production. April 1999[Mettier 1999] Mettier T. : Der Vergleich von Schutzguetern - Ausgewaehlte Resultate einerPanel-Befragung, in: Hofstetter P., Mettier T., Tietje O. (eds.), Ansaetze zumVergleich von Umweltschaeden, Nachbearbeitung des 9. DiskussionsforumsOekobilanzen vom 4. Dezember 1998, ETH Zuerich).[Müller-Wenk 1998] Müller-Wenk, R. (1998-1): Depletion of Abiotic Resources Weighted on theBase of "Virtual" Impacts of Lower Grade Deposits in Future. IWÖDiskussionsbeitrag Nr. 57, Universität St. Gallen, March 1998, ISBN 3-906502-57-0 [Thompson 1990] Thompson M,, Ellis R., Wildavsky A.; Cultural Theory, Westview Print Boulder1990