SeismiCat - On-Line Seismic Risk Assessment Tool

SeismiCat provides a free Seismic Hazard Lookup (Screening) report to assist Professional Engineers, building owners and real estate lenders with a rapid means to scope seismic risk assessment studies for property transfer due-diligence.  Previously, the Seismic Zone Map from the 1997 Uniform Building Code served as a basis for deciding where such studies are required, and the appropriate level of investigation for each. For any user specified location within the U.S., SeismiCat’s free Seismic Hazard Lookup tool provides:

• Summary of the user specified site location information (i.e. full address and geocoded latitude and longitude parameters).
• The equivalent UBC 1997 seismic zone
• The 475-year recurrent Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) for site location based on the user specified version of the USGS Hazard Maps (i.e. 2008, 2014 or 2018)
• Site Class as defined in IBC and ASCE 7 codes based on the regional maps from SeismiCat’s database
• Any special seismic hazards applicable to the site based on approximate regional hazard mapping (e.g. AP fault, liquefaction or tsunami zones)
• Recommended ASTM E 2026 and E2557 scopes of study based on the acceptable level of uncertainty for site stability, building stability and building damageability

SeismiCat’s development team has been working on preparing a new feature which would allow our subscribers to create automatic site-specific Seismic Hazard Reports that provide a complete overview of seismic hazards for any location within the U.S.

The report provides maps and tables of various seismic hazards from SeismiCat’s database which consists of numerous public and proprietary sources.

Once a seismic risk analysis is completed in the online SeismiCat Single-Site application for any property across the U.S., the user would be able to generate an automatic Seismic Risk Assessment report in various formats (i.e. html, RTF, and PDF) to be used as a documentation of the analysis or as part of a larger package provided by SeismiCat users to the clients.

SeismiCat subscribers get access to their own designated online secure project space, where they can use various features for project management.

Project Space Features

• Browse site name/location, date of creation, analysis progress (% of completion) and results (i.e. SEL, SUL values and link to analysis report) for completed projects.
• Search for particular projects based on various attributes (e.g. location, username, site name, etc.)
• Retrieve past projects for re-analysis using updated information on local hazards and structural vulnerability
• Lock (to prevent further edits) or clone any project

High Quality Data Management for Portfolio Seismic Risk Studies

The high-quality data for various sites and structures gradually gathered in the project space of SeismiCat single-site tool are saved for re-use in periodic portfolio seismic risk evaluations, using SeismiCat-PR tool. Results from the portfolio studies can be used to identify individual sites that are major risk contributors as potential candidates requiring updated single-site seismic risk assessments at higher study levels.

SeismiCat and ImageCat provide various capabilities for post-earthquake damage assessment of properties in the seismically active regions.

Integration of Published USGS ShakeMaps in SeismiCat

After each significant earthquake event, published USGS ShakeMaps are loaded on the database of projects in the SeismiCat system. All users can then visit their designated project space to determine if any of their stored projects (i.e. sites) were affected by that event. Users can access:

• The original ShakeMap published by USGS
• A list of affected properties with corresponding ground motion values (e.g. PGA, SA0.3 and SA1.0) and estimated expected damage based on the pre-defined structural vulnerability parameters
• A map demonstrating USGS ShakeMap overlaid on all properties to provide a visual aid for identifying buildings with maximum potential risk

Implementation of USGS ShakeCast for Property Managers

ImageCat provides full consulting services to property and utility managers in implementing and customizing the USGS ShakeCast¹ application for near real-time notification of potential significant damage to critical facilities. ImageCat can also host the full application on a cloud-based platform for the users, which reduces initial capital investment for personnel and IT infrastructure as well as long-term technical support and maintenance. Contact us to find out more about the implementation process.

SeismiCat’s Portfolio Risk Assessment System (SeismiCat-PR) is a state-of-the-art tool that takes advantage of cloud-computing technology for performing real-estate portfolio seismic risk assessments. SeismiCat-PR benefits from decades of in-house expertise of ImageCat’s experts in probabilistic seismic risk modeling. ImageCat uses SeismiCat-PR  to provide portfolio risk assessment services to small and large real-estate property owners/managers, (re)insurance clients, lenders, risk managers and clients of Structural Engineering firms partnering with ImageCat. SeismiCat-PR uses the “Robust Simulation” technology with rigorous uncertainty treatment and offers a comprehensive view of earthquake risks in the U.S. to our clients.

Seismic Hazards

SeismCat-PR’s comprehensive stochastic earthquake catalog, “event set”, includes millions of earthquake simulations and can accurately reproduce the USGS Seismic Hazard Maps (2008, 2014 and 2018 updates).

• Full, smooth spectra from PGA to T= 5s, for return periods from 50 years to 10,000 years
• Direct accounting of soil effects from Ground Motion Models (GMMs)
• Separate treatment of between- and within-event uncertainty in GMMs
• Spatial correlation and cross-period correlation of shaking intensity
• Time-independent (UCERF3-TI) and time-dependent (UCERF3-TD) rupture model implementation
• Temporal and spatial clustering for New Madrid Seismic Zone event sequences
• Implementation of NGA West 2 (USGS 2014) and NGA East (USGS 2018)
• Deep sedimentary basin effects for the Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Salt Lake City basins (USGS 2018)

 Vulnerability Models

SeismiCat-PR implements multiple fragility/vulnerability models, including Code Oriented Damage Assessment (CODA) [Graf & Lee, 2009, Earthquake Spectra], HAZUS [FEMA/NIBS] and  the ATC-13 Building Facility Classes.

• Vulnerability parameters are derived based on construction type, material, number of stories, year built and location according to the U.S. Building Codes
• Engineers can adjust the engineering parameters to suit the specific building from engineering studies (PMLs) for more accurate performance prediction
• Performance uncertainty is adapted from the latest ASTM standards [E2026-16a and E2557-16a]
• Other types of losses include damage from soil liquefaction, contents damage and business interruption

Diagnosis of Portfolio Risks

SeismiCat-PR provides comprehensive diagnostic capabilities on portfolio risks, identifying risk drivers and helping clients manage catastrophic losses effectively.

• Quantify the uncertainty in portfolio risk estimates that result from the quality of property damageability assessment inputs
• Identify the properties that contribute most to portfolio risks and find opportunities to improve risk assessments effectively through technical investigations
• Characterize portfolio risk contributions by region, occupancy, structural type, and other taxonomy of the portfolio, as well as predominant seismic sources (faults), to help clients better understand and manage portfolio risks
• Identify geographic areas that have high portfolio risk concentrations and help clients manage catastrophic risks through strategic geographic risk diversification.

“The Robust Simulation” Technology

SeismiCat-PR’s “Robust Simulation” technology allows for a comprehensive exploration of the full range of epistemic uncertainties arising from the use of multiple scientifically defensible models in seismic hazard and property damageability modeling.

• Transparency in complex catastrophe modeling with model integrity and traceability
• Estimates of Center, Body, and Range (CBR) of seismic risks through simulations of an ensemble of scientifically justifiable and defensible views of risk.
• Better estimation of “extreme loss” probabilities without intermediate model averaging